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-   -   Heisman Prop Bet (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=508944)

smbruin22 10-01-2007 10:01 AM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
wow, tons of guys dropped this weekend....

but here's a name for you:

Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree (again)
He's been here before, and it likely won't be the last time this season. Crabtree made his 14th touchdown catch this year in the third quarter of the blowout win over Northwestern State, setting the Texas Tech single-season record for scoring grabs after just five games................ his numbers projected over a 12-game season work out to 144 catches for 2,208 yards and 33 touchdowns.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/685462.html

i'm thinking he still won't get much recognition. but sure deserves some.

Austiger 10-01-2007 01:15 PM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
There is no way a Texas Tech wide receiver is going to win the Heisman.

smbruin22 10-01-2007 01:35 PM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
There is no way a Texas Tech wide receiver is going to win the Heisman.

[/ QUOTE ]

a better chance than pat white and/or steve slaton.... i agree though. even with 25 TD's i don't think he'd win.

smbruin22 10-09-2007 09:36 AM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/ncaa/article/0,2777,DRMN_23932_5717959,00.html

interested in following this bet......

apparently the rocky mountain news is the definitive poll.... does espn do one still? i'll check....

anyhow, why is tebow still so high??.... and colt brennan and booty out of top 14 (yes, i know USC lost). am i missing brennan somehow? (injured, playing badly??).... and bear in mind, i'm asking relative to top 14...

dorsey would have been an interesting pick... i bit my tongue on it when the OP asked for suggestions...

smbruin22 10-09-2007 09:43 AM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
and here's espn's poll....

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/heisman07/index

six guys solidly ahead of the others. including chase daniel....

FWIW, 10 unbeatens left, and only 5 represented in these heisman polls.... although i guess we can assume cincy and ASU (and a few others) won't go undefeated.

smbruin22 10-26-2007 09:43 AM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
good work on having matt ryan.... i think the OP had him on his original list and then kept him (i hope) the whole way thru the revisions..... anyhow, must be decent space between ryan and the field now..... but do people think a BC loss or two will severly harm his chances??

SunOfBeach 10-26-2007 10:50 AM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
I did keep Ryan, and I'm obviously now *very* glad that I did. I thought I had him in there only b/c I was biased (I live right near there)... but sometimes bias helps you luckbox into something good [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

DannyOcean_ 10-28-2007 06:22 PM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
ryan or dixon are looking sooper dooper right now. Dixon is easily number two at this point if ryan is one, right?

Rustjive 11-06-2007 04:06 PM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
Let's revive this. After Ryan's craptacular weekend, he went from 30/35 Sell/Buy on WSEX to 0/2 - basically from +186 to +4900. I'll agree that his chance of winning this is basically nil - but let's say he plays decently, BC wins out in their schedule - if BC is the ACC BCS rep, which is easily still possible, then Ryan's gotta be in the fringes of the discussion, right? Seems to me that with, what, potentially 6 games left to play, WSEX is discounting Ryan too quickly, right?

The rest of the candidates look like this:
Dixon, 35/40 - +150
McFadden, 22/27 - +270
Tebow, 16/21 - +376
Hart, 2/4 - +2400
Daniel, 2/4 - +2400
Brennan, 1/3 - +3233
Woodson, 0/2 - +4900
White, 0/2 - +4900

By the way, these are contracts, so sell at any time.

Edit: Also, if you're not in this already, note that the top 3 candidates are 40 + 27 + 21, or -733 that it's 1 of the 3 heavy favorites.

domer2 11-06-2007 07:07 PM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
Matt ryan has no shot to win the Heisman. If you want 75-1 odds, I will give them to you.

Rustjive 11-06-2007 07:49 PM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
This is where reading comprehension comes in. I am not looking for Matt Ryan to win the Heisman - I mentioned they were contracts very specifically because, frankly, it matters. I am wondering at the end of the season, if Ryan has played decently and BC is in a position to represent the ACC in the BCS, will Ryan's odds improve appreciably? Contracts are $2 buy, $0 sell right now - how confident are you that they won't move to $11 buy, $8 sell at the end of the season?

To give you a little context on where this may have happened, McFadden was $4 buy, $2 sell a few weeks ago.

Again, these are contracts, not fixed bets. If you're willing to give me a market every week and 75:1 on current Matt Ryan contracts, then I may have to take you up on it.

smbruin22 11-06-2007 10:54 PM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
that seems ludicrous either that matt ryan fell that far OR that he was that high to start with.

chase daniel seems like good value..

how is tebow still around? he plays with amazing talent at receiver and has lost too many games.

iggymcfly 11-07-2007 12:37 AM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
that seems ludicrous either that matt ryan fell that far OR that he was that high to start with.

chase daniel seems like good value..

how is tebow still around? he plays with amazing talent at receiver and has lost too many games.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe because he leads the nation in passing efficiency and is also 7th in the nation in rushing among QBs, despite playing an extremely tough schedule.

smbruin22 11-07-2007 11:10 PM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
[ QUOTE ]
how is tebow still around? he plays with amazing talent at receiver and has lost too many games.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe because he leads the nation in passing efficiency and is also 7th in the nation in rushing among QBs, despite playing an extremely tough schedule.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, he's very impressive at the swing pass to harvin/caldwell/etc. and watching them run... seriously, how many losses can the guy's heisman campaign take?

iggymcfly 11-09-2007 07:46 AM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
Yes, all Tebow does is throw screen passes. That's why he only leads the nation in yards per attempt. Seriously, you're so wrong here that it's ridiculous. Tebow's had a tremendous, tremendous year and if the Florida defense had played even slightly better this year, he'd be the frontrunner right now.

DannyOcean_ 11-09-2007 05:37 PM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
I hope OP took the advice someone gave and locked in money on dixon while he was a long shot...

Schwatt 12-01-2007 12:05 PM

Re: Heisman Prop Bet
 
bump

Tebow has to be great value at -235 right?
He is -300 to -400 at the other places I have found.

Another bet I like is +100 on Daniel to get 2nd in the Heisman. The bet is no action if somehow Tebow doesn't win it.

Thoughts?


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