Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs

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Yeh, and you are 31% against 88+,AQ+. That is 5.6% of his hands. If he is raising 20% of his hands from CO, then he calls 20% of the time.

You gain 4900 if he folds. If he calls, there is 75300 in the pot. Your expected loss in 12500 compared to folding. So your overall expected win is 1400 by pushing.

If you 3-bet/call, Colson may push some weaker hands thinking he has FE and he may flat call. I think 3-bet/calling is about equal to overbet pushing with AJo. If you had a big hand or were making a playing, a standard 3-bet is better than a push.

Now people are saying flat calling is more cEV+ than reraising, but they say fold this flop. If you check/fold any flop without an ace or jack or KQT, I don't think flat calling is very EV+. Plus sometimes you are dominated with top pair. Given villain is a strong player, it seems like a reraise is the better play.

It seems to me that if you are going to flat call, this is a pretty good flop to checkraise or lead out/fold with, representing a pp or middle cards.

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colosn raising a lot more than 20% from CO with antes.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs

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Yeh, and you are 31% against 88+,AQ+. That is 5.6% of his hands. If he is raising 20% of his hands from CO, then he calls 20% of the time.

You gain 4900 if he folds. If he calls, there is 75300 in the pot. Your expected loss in 12500 compared to folding. So your overall expected win is 1400 by pushing.

If you 3-bet/call, Colson may push some weaker hands thinking he has FE and he may flat call. I think 3-bet/calling is about equal to overbet pushing with AJo. If you had a big hand or were making a playing, a standard 3-bet is better than a push.

Now people are saying flat calling is more cEV+ than reraising, but they say fold this flop. If you check/fold any flop without an ace or jack or KQT, I don't think flat calling is very EV+. Plus sometimes you are dominated with top pair. Given villain is a strong player, it seems like a reraise is the better play.

It seems to me that if you are going to flat call, this is a pretty good flop to checkraise or lead out/fold with, representing a pp or middle cards.

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colosn raising a lot more than 20% from CO with antes.

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Typo, I was assuming 28%. If he is raising more than 28%, then that makes a reraise allin even more profitable. As I saidm, the reraise allin is easier to calculate, but I believe it is close in cEV to reraise/call.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs

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Holy [censored], what?

YOU'RE SHOVING THIRTY SEVEN BIG BLINDS.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs

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YOU'RE SHOVING THIRTY SEVEN BIG BLINDS.

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Exactly. He would know my range is heavily weighted towards medium strength hands.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

Well it sure as hell shouldn't be.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs

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Holy [censored], what?

YOU'RE SHOVING THIRTY SEVEN BIG BLINDS.

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I am just showing that the push is profitable. We can assume that 3-bet fold is actually slightly more profitable than a push. Overbet push might be the best play anyway with this hand against a strong player.

I overbet raise allin all the time like this. Is it a bad play? Standard 3-bet with AK or JJ-AA, or a bluff, but push something like AJ.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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Well it sure as hell shouldn't be.

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What do you mean? An overbet push like this would look like 66-99/AJ-AK type hands. It's rarely ever a huge hand like AA or KK.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.

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No, I'm with you guys. I said it early on in the thread.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.

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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.

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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

so there are times when this is not bizarro mtt?

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

I don't know how Colson plays but I don't think 3betting and calling a shove is optimal here.

I would typically call. I don't think 3bet/folding is that bad either although I generally hate taking those lines with medium strength hands.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.

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call preflop, fold flop ftw

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.

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call preflop, fold flop ftw

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Why would you fold this flop, but not other flops when you miss? This seems like it would miss a high scard hand, and you could represent a pp.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.

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call preflop, fold flop ftw

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Why would you fold this flop, but not other flops when you miss? This seems like it would miss a high scard hand, and you could represent a pp.

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because the risk/reward ratio is no good?

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.

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call preflop, fold flop ftw

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Why would you fold this flop, but not other flops when you miss? This seems like it would miss a high scard hand, and you could represent a pp.

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because the risk/reward ratio is no good?

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Then what flop that you missed would you not fold?

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

Dryer

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.

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No, I'm with you guys. I said it early on in the thread.

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Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I feel like everybody besides gobbo is in a completely other universe than me. its like bizarro mtt. fwiw I call preflop, and fold the flop here, although I certainly dont fold all flops when i miss.

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call preflop, fold flop ftw

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Why would you fold this flop, but not other flops when you miss? This seems like it would miss a high scard hand, and you could represent a pp.

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9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7x 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is not a good flop for 'representing' hands on OOP when you have A high no draw

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I like calling and check folding this flop.

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Agreed. With AQ i'm fine 3 betting and getting it in pre.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

i agree calling is best but i dont think 3betting here is bad or anything especially if you have a retarded-aggro image

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

I call all day here preflop vs carl with the intention of doing something saucy postflop

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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I call all day here preflop vs carl with the intention of doing something saucy postflop

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[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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Colson is better then all of us combined fold PF he will own your soul.


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This is the only post I've read in this whole thread that I agree with.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

That's why I think an overbet push is the best play against villain. It is unexploitably atleast +1500 chips EV. You'll just get into trouble flat calling.

Against a random, I would flat call for the same reason, looking for an advantage postflop. However, in general, I think it is close between flat call and reraise/call.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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That's why I think an overbet push is the best play against villain. It is unexploitably atleast +1500 chips EV. You'll just get into trouble flat calling.

Against a random, I would flat call for the same reason, looking for an advantage postflop. However, in general, I think it is close between flat call and reraise/call.

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If its really +1500 chips in EV, its a super duper obvious allin preflop, and nothing else is worth even discussing. Note that I said "if" this is true, I hadn't done any math, but zero chance in hell that calling out of position with AJ against a good player with deep stacked is going to be more +EV than that.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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If its really +1500 chips in EV, its a super duper obvious allin preflop, and nothing else is worth even discussing. Note that I said "if" this is true, I hadn't done any math, but zero chance in hell that calling out of position with AJ against a good player with deep stacked is going to be more +EV than that.

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I'm like 90% sure that calling and then check shoving any flop you hit is > 1500 cEV

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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If its really +1500 chips in EV, its a super duper obvious allin preflop, and nothing else is worth even discussing. Note that I said "if" this is true, I hadn't done any math, but zero chance in hell that calling out of position with AJ against a good player with deep stacked is going to be more +EV than that.

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I'm like 90% sure that calling and then check shoving any flop you hit is > 1500 cEV

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You only hit like 35% of the flops, and you don't win all of those if you checkraise. Don't think this is a really effective way of playing a big ace. This is a much better approach with a mid to high suited connector, where you hit a lot more flops. Hard to calculate, but I doubt it is +1500 EV.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

Your shove can definitely get called when you're ahead, betgo, and every time he calls and is behind it's massively +EV for you.

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

also sometimes (80% of the time) carl goes on tilt and sticks it in w/ AT on 975dd flops maybe we can check shove the flop for value?

Re: $200R AJ vs Colson
 

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also sometimes (80% of the time) carl goes on tilt and sticks it in w/ AT on 975dd flops maybe we can check shove the flop for value?

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Post more kush.