Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
For those of you advocating betting, what does everyone think about betting less than a push? At these high buy-in events would a weird play like that signal strength or weakness? If we come out betting 4k, what will CO think?

I assume it's the wrong play, but I think considering it would be nice.

I still like checking, btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is too big, and he has us outchipped by too much. Even a push is only ~3/4 pot, and Villain as 20k chips left. I think it takes the whole 7k to scare him enough to fold even a marginal holding at this point.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aside: A good 2+2-er that I have talked with before has a theory that when someone's hand range is small for a given situation... the chance that they are bluffing goes way up. It relates to Bayes' Theorem and I don't feel like explaining it right now. And sure enough, it applies here.


[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, this notion applies to OUR play in this hand as well, arguably even moreso than for villain, as the range of hands we'd play this way is very small.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get this logic - "he limped in CO, so he must have a monster." Players often limp here hoping to steal the blinds simply by betting the flop after no one raises PF. KT, JT, Q9, are precisely the type of hands that limp here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he had a monster preflop or even now necessarily. But do you really limp KT in the CO when it's folded to you? I mean, aren't you much more likely to raise them to steal the blinds? And maybe I shouldn't say that he "definitely" doesn't have those hands, I just think that it would be a lot more likely for him to raise to steal with those types of hands.

Basically I'm still confused that he open limped in the CO and the only hands that I could really see doing that with are pocket pairs and maybe JTs. Maybe I need to start limping when it's folded to me if playing KT like that is standard.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

On second thought, the stacks are incredibly deep preflop. Crap, he actually could have anything. Damn, this hand is more intriguing than I initially thought.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't get this logic - "he limped in CO, so he must have a monster." Players often limp here hoping to steal the blinds simply by betting the flop after no one raises PF. KT, JT, Q9, are precisely the type of hands that limp here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he had a monster preflop or even now necessarily. But do you really limp KT in the CO when it's folded to you? I mean, aren't you much more likely to raise them to steal the blinds? And maybe I shouldn't say that he "definitely" doesn't have those hands, I just think that it would be a lot more likely for him to raise to steal with those types of hands.

Basically I'm still confused that he open limped in the CO and the only hands that I could really see doing that with are pocket pairs and maybe JTs. Maybe I need to start limping when it's folded to me if playing KT like that is standard.

[/ QUOTE ]

open limping in the CO is so un-standard that I put him on two playable cards (pairs, suited connectors, two broadway). When he didn't reraise me preflop, esp with MJ flat calling, I didn't think he had QQ-AA, AK. However, MJ priced him in for everything else, including all broadway hands.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
On second thought, the stacks are incredibly deep preflop. Crap, he actually could have anything. Damn, this hand is more intriguing than I initially thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

almost all deep stacked hands are more intriguing than the online hands that are posted here daily.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
On second thought, the stacks are incredibly deep preflop. Crap, he actually could have anything. Damn, this hand is more intriguing than I initially thought.

[/ QUOTE ]
Like I'd pick a hand that wasn't intriguing [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

The river is just about the worst card in the pack for us. After the turn I had him on a made hand; a set, 2 pair or possibly a pair with a flush draw. I thought our best option was to check and hope for a scarey card on the river with which to chase him out otherwise if a blank comes, I'll be content to play on with 9,000+ chips. Now we've dug ourselves a grave.

His river check means one of two things, he's not that enamoured with his hand and wants to get to a showdown cheaply or he's now confident he has the best hand and is waiting for us, as the aggressor, to bet into him again. Read dependent, but from Sossman's description I err towards the former and obviously our raise on the turn shook him up: KQ, QJ perhaps.

I think his range of hands for us is essentially missed flush & straight draws. The only hand we have him beat with conceivably is QQ, but he would have expected us to bet out on the flop. AQ I guess is another possibility.

Again I wouldn't have made the raise on the turn, but I think I'd have to go with my read and raise all in in the hope that I could get him to lay it down.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Crappy River, but I can't just forfeit the pot (which is almost sure to happen if I check behind the CO). His check shows weakness, and I'm going to exploit it by going all-in for my last 7000. I really don't believe I can win a showdown.

I don't believe the CO has anything spectacular (otherwise he'd bet the river). His most likely holdings are:

- 2nd or 3rd pair (JT, J9), along w/ a straight draw

- Busted Draw (KJ, 87)


He hasn't played like he has AQ or KQ. If he's sitting there w/ QJ, that's just crappy luck (although there's a chance you can get him to fold w/ your big river bet; representing AQ yourself). 7000 should be just enough to get a tight player to fold after being unwilling to bet the river.


The CO is probably giving me credit for at least Top Pair, Strong Kicker (AQ or KQ). I believe my draw is well-concealed because I didn't take a stab on the flop after raising pre-flop.

Don't get me wrong, this is definitely a risky play that could go south (knocking me out). However, I believe the prerequisites are in place to steal this pot:

- Tight Opponent who showed weakness
- Position
- Betting Leader

Also, getting this pot would take me up to almost 17K in chips, putting me in excellent shape for future rounds.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Aside: A good 2+2-er that I have talked with before has a theory that when someone's hand range is small for a given situation... the chance that they are bluffing goes way up. It relates to Bayes' Theorem and I don't feel like explaining it right now. And sure enough, it applies here.


[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, this notion applies to OUR play in this hand as well, arguably even moreso than for villain, as the range of hands we'd play this way is very small.

[/ QUOTE ]
The context is not totally there... but that was my original point and reason for bringing it up. I meant this about reading *our* hand and picking off our bluff from the CO.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

i dont see how anyone could put him on a 'monster' on the turn.. sure it's possible, but he's as likely to bet that turn w/ 78,67,or 89 than a set.

And it's not like the turn was a safe card for any of his holdings except for a straight.. and that's pretty balsy of him to cheeck a strtaight on the river... we easily can cheeck behind here, i really dont think he's trrying to trap us with a monster.. the problem is if he's trapping us w/ AQ/KR/QJ. And our bet on the river is pretty substantial, more than 3/4 the pot.. he's not gonna have an easy time calling it and i think he folds more than 50% here.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
our bet on the river is pretty substantial, more than 3/4 the pot.. he's not gonna have an easy time calling it and i think he folds more than 50% here.

[/ QUOTE ] The way this hand played out are you telling me if you are the CO you could even fold top pair in this spot? This hand was over on the turn.

When he called our raise it was like him saying, "I don't believe you have anything." Now we are figuring when we get to the river he will say, "Uh oh 7,000 into a 10,000 pot. He must be serious, maybe that 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] helped him, I'll fold."

I think we all look at this tight player the wrong way. The description wasn't tight/weak pansy that curls in a ball and crys every time he sees my Dodgers hat. Tight players can be aggressive and have good reads. They just play less hands and bluff less.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I don't think we're trying to say that the 2 of diamonds helped us, we're saying, 'we had you on the turn, and now we want to get paid for the rest'.

His call on the turn doesn't mean that he's sure he's ahead of us, it means A) could be drawing B)Thinks he's ahead but isn't sure, gonna see what happens C)Maybe thinks he's beat, but pot is offering nearly 3:1.. so he only has be be best 1/4 times.

And, unless he's way ahead, and probably most of those times too, he's going to be reraising us on the turn.. it's incredibily draw heavy by that point, and even if he puts us on a draw, we'd probably pay him off with it.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
His call on the turn doesn't mean that he's sure he's ahead of us, it means A) could be drawing

[/ QUOTE ]
Alright what hands are in his drawing range. Can we really believe he would call our turn raise with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?
What possible J could he have? We have the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] so if he has J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] that is one tough call on the turn. If we push on that holding we get a fold say 60% of the time.

If he has QJ and turned top pair and a good draw he isn't going to be happy when he calls, but I think he will. If he has AJ hell we're spliting. But this is a really strange way to play AJ.

[ QUOTE ]
B)Thinks he's ahead but isn't sure, gonna see what happens

[/ QUOTE ] This is where I'm pretty sure he has to call with the blank on the river. He might fold here 10% of the time, but I'm not counting on it.

[ QUOTE ]
C)Maybe thinks he's beat, but pot is offering nearly 3:1.. so he only has be be best 1/4 times.


[/ QUOTE ] Same thing to me as B. If there was some semi-scare card on the river I could see it. But, at this point he really should be sticking to his read.

D) he is on a stone cold bluff. 0% chance of this

So basically our big hope is he called our turn bet with J10. We still have a workable stack. Not real workable. But, do we have a good enough read to put him on on specific hand?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

why wouldn't he call w/ 89c or ever 67c or 78c?


he's getting price in on the flush draw alone, and those hands would fit into the limp-call preflop.

Also i think he lets hands like JT, and QJ go here. Maybe as much as KQ.

--

And as fas as [ QUOTE ]
This is where I'm pretty sure he has to call with the blank on the river. He might fold here 10% of the time, but I'm not counting on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just.. don't agree.. i think he'll fold much more than 10% of the time here.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
why wouldn't he call w/ 89c or ever 67c or 78c?
he's getting price in on the flush draw alone, and those hands would fit into the limp-call preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

So he was just taking a shot with his turn bet? I guess it is possible. That would be a rough call though with the bitch str8 draw and a 9 high flush draw.

We can disagree on him folding Broadway cards. I just think it looks like we have A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Now it is just down to how much does he believe in his own read.

I really like this idea, it has sparked some good discussion. Nice job Lloyd, you always do it up right. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
So he was just taking a shot with his turn bet? I guess it is possible. That would be a rough call though with the bitch str8 draw and a 9 high flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

Don't mean to keep this going and going, or make it seem like i have a vendetta against you..

but if you had 89c (or 67 or 78) wouldn't you bet there? everyone has shown weakness and it's a scare card, and one that helps you out... then when raised.. you would think it over, but look at the 3:1 oddds and decide that your 30% equity here is good enough.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

i don't know if i'd actually have the stones to do this, but i'd push. if villain had a hand that he was comfortable going to the felt with, he reraises the turn with all the draws on board. i think he's got something like JT or AT that can't call a big bet. if he's got 99, god bless 'em.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I'd fold to his check and deny him or anyone else at the table free information on our hand! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

But in all seriousness, this is a semi-tough spot. Here are our options:

1. CHECK: Villian has checked, and we can check and get away from this pot with enough chips to continue playing the tournament.

2. MAKE A SMALL BET, BUT THAT LOOKS LIKE IT POT-COMMITS US. Betting between 3-5K is a good chunk of our chips, and makes it look like we're committed to the hand and want Villian to call. If he pushes, we could fold like a donk, and still have a small amount of chips to fight our way back.

3. PUSH ALL-IN: Villian likely has us beat, and checking will not allow us to win this pot. It's still early in the tourney though, but he just called our re-raise on the turn with flush and straight draws present. Villian checked to us though. Does Villian view us as hyper-agressive and believe we're going to bet, so he can get all of our chips?

Since he's a tight, solid type, I'd figure he would have made some type of value-bet on the river, instead of checking. I think a push is our best option. Checking and living to fight another day is an option I can see many taking though. Who wants to throw away a 10K entry on a bluff? I think a push will only be called if Villian has: (top two pair, a set or the straight) Anything else and Villian will likely lay down.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since he's a tight, solid type, I'd figure he would have made some type of value-bet on the river, instead of checking. I think a push is our best option.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Man people are going to get bored if it takes this long to post the "experts" opinions after the original threads. Either that or I'm really bad at finding that thread.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

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Man people are going to get bored if it takes this long to post the "experts" opinions after the original threads. Either that or I'm really bad at finding that thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true. C'mon fellas, we've all said our piece.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Man people are going to get bored if it takes this long to post the "experts" opinions after the original threads. Either that or I'm really bad at finding that thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed..
now i'm going to speculate on who the experts are (and if they've been mentioned already.. well i didnt read it, so ignore this)

MLG, Strassa, sirio... annnnnnnd TTIU.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't mean to keep this going and going, or make it seem like i have a vendetta against you..

[/ QUOTE ] Nope I like the back and forth

[ QUOTE ]
but if you had 89c (or 67 or 78) wouldn't you bet there? everyone has shown weakness and it's a scare card, and one that helps you out... then when raised.. you would think it over, but look at the 3:1 oddds and decide that your 30% equity here is good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]
I would have taken my shot on the flop. But , the turn is possible. There is no way though I'm calling that raise. All of my possible outs are trouble. I couldn't believe that I had 30% in this pot with that board.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't believe that I had 30% in this pot with that board.

[/ QUOTE ]

from CO's point of view, the range we could have here is:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> 2,552 games 0.005 secs 510,400 games/sec

Board: Ts 9h 3c Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.7806 % 29.78% 00.00% { 9s8s }
Hand 2: 70.2194 % 70.22% 00.00% { TT-99, AsKs, AQs, AsJs, KJs+, QTs+, AQo, KJo+, QTo }
</pre><hr />

i used spades by mistake, and that 3x might have been somethign else, but the values should be the same.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

If we check we are virtually giving up on the hand. I believe the best play is to push the river. We have enough chips remaining on the river to make villian lay down a better hand than ours. If the villian has a set or straight well so be it.
But the only way we can win is if we bet. We will feel pretty stupid if the villian turnsover a hand like 89c which he would have folded had we pushed. Obviously a river push is risky and we are in danger of getting our walking papers, but I think a bluff will work a large enough percentage of the time to make it a profitable play long term. By pushing we are putting the villian in a tough spot and who knows how we will act to the pressure. Mayber he'll make a big mistake and fold a hand which he should have called if he starts thinking too much. I like a push the more and more I think about it.

Bruce

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

I know the math, I'm just uncomfortable believing I am best in this spot if a J or club hits on the river and would be real happy about calling the sure push from the button who could very easily have the better draw.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
i don't know if i'd actually have the stones to do this, but i'd push. if villain had a hand that he was comfortable going to the felt with, he reraises the turn with all the draws on board. i think he's got something like JT or AT that can't call a big bet. if he's got 99, god bless 'em.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur, what hand could he have that wouldn't require him popping us on the turn?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Is everyone dead? Lloyd? Sossman? Where's the finale?
Waaaaay to long here.
I thought this all was great except for the length of time.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is everyone dead? Lloyd? Sossman? Where's the finale?
Waaaaay to long here.
I thought this all was great except for the length of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm waiting on Lloyd.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

im putting him on 78-89 of clubs. it sucks but id check here and move on, only other play is all in and that looks too weak.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is everyone dead? Lloyd? Sossman? Where's the finale?
Waaaaay to long here.
I thought this all was great except for the length of time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry but the time frame is not just for you. I'm making one post a day to allow people time to comment fully on each step of the way. Most of the decisions require some debate and to just post the next thread would remove much of that. In addition, some people look at things in the morning, others in the evening (and some throughout the day). So I'm doing my best at posting approximately every 24 hours.

I will be making the next post sometime this evening.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is everyone dead? Lloyd? Sossman? Where's the finale?
Waaaaay to long here.
I thought this all was great except for the length of time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry but the time frame is not just for you. I'm making one post a day to allow people time to comment fully on each step of the way. Most of the decisions require some debate and to just post the next thread would remove much of that. In addition, some people look at things in the morning, others in the evening (and some throughout the day). So I'm doing my best at posting approximately every 24 hours.

I will be making the next post sometime this evening.

[/ QUOTE ]

cock-tease.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

Okay, but please realize you said the panel's opinion would be posted in the evening about 3-4 days ago.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

And then I posted a poll where the overwhelming response was to separate out the panel's comments in a post at the end.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
And then I posted a poll where the overwhelming response was to separate out the panel's comments in a post at the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you were clear w/ that question in the poll...
i for one read it as a seperate post, ,that would be posted laster that night... not at the end fo the whole disucssion..


But i like the way you did it, save it till the end. don't let the 'experts' influence what we might say on future roundns. since their answers are probably going to include plans of actions for possible turn/river cards.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I will be making the next post sometime this evening.

[/ QUOTE ]

All of us "amatuers" should still keep in mind that these expert responses aren't the "answers". After MLG and Soss and company tell us what they think, it's our job to bash away at their arguments and make them prove that they are, indeed, expert opinions. Basically, the discussion had better not stop there.

Side question to Lloyd: did the experts already have a separate private discussion thread that's about to be revealed? Or are they going to start posting responses in new discussion thread? Just wondering.

Everett

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

This is great because so much new discussion has been added to this thread in the past 12 hours. WTF Lloyd? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is great because so much new discussion has been added to this thread in the past 12 hours. WTF Lloyd? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
How about I get to actually sleep and work in the past 12 hours.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
But i like the way you did it, save it till the end. don't let the 'experts' influence what we might say on future roundns. since their answers are probably going to include plans of actions for possible turn/river cards.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is why. And frankly all this complaining is not a very good thing.