Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

Up 6.5% today on no news... any thoughts DC?

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

Very illiquid. Could mean anything or nothing.

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

Any news on this Cat? Looks like the price fell alot over the summer and fall because of the credit crisis. Still looks like an even better buy now.

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

I got in 2 weeks ago at 7.61. Seems like such a large margin that its a lock at that price.

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

No change, still holding. Good business in bad part of cycle.

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

I've been looking at this stock lately. Any recent thoughts, DC? What is your feel about the stock's true value, in $/share terms?

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

Is anyone else not able to buy this through an online order? Through both etrade and td waterhouse I get a message saying to call an investment representative. I've never seen this message for anything else. Maybe I should just call, but I thought I'd see if anyone else was having similar problems or knew why this was happening.

Steve

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

I got the same messagge Its a pink sheet company so you need to call to buy/sell. 5 minute phone call and they put my limit order in.

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I got the same messagge Its a pink sheet company so you need to call to buy/sell. 5 minute phone call and they put my limit order in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, thanks

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

Gotta love the insider buying.

I may take a small position when some cash becomes available.

Edit: Boy is this thing illiquid.

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've been looking at this stock lately. Any recent thoughts, DC? What is your feel about the stock's true value, in $/share terms?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was overly optimistic when I first got into it. I thought they would grow earnings 15%+ for a long while. Instead I was seeing the peak of their cycle which distorted things. I still think they will grow 10%+, but realize they haven't even seen the worse the national economy could offer. Higher interest rates and unemployment would hurt them worse, though their customer segments are clearly dealing with higher unemployment now.

I take comfort in their conservative financials and management. Any DCF analysis would tell you that a 10x growth rate merits a 20 PE, but given their small market cap I doubt they'll get one until they are much larger. My guess is, barring a national recession, in two years they earn more than $1.50 per share and trade north of $15, maybe close to $20.

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

DC:

Interesting stock, seems to be trading close to book value which would generally indicate a bargain. In any of these one product specialty financial companies you have to see if there is a "special sauce" ie why are they doing it better than everyone else?

Generally, companies like this that have cracked the code in terms of superior loan origination and risk mitigance trade for much higher values and if not would be an ideal takeover target by a large Finco like GECC (General Electric Capital).

You make want to check out CIT - which is currently trading below book and should rebound.

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

NICK has its special sauce, but its way too small to think it will be getting bought any time soon. The risk with these finance companies is they are reliant on short term financing. Nicholas has mitigated this over the last few years by reducing their debt to equity substantially so I don't think they will ever get their lines pulled, but its always a risk and this year has been brutal on subprime finance companies.

A similar high quality company in mortgages is DFC, and I just dumped most of my shares to take a tax loss cause I have no idea if they will be able to finance any more. Its brutal out there.

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

Cat, wasn't NICK's credit line both increased and the rate cut last month? Seems like the bank consortium still has a lot of confidence in the company no?

Re: A Favorite Stock, NICK
 

Sure, but I still have a lot of my net worth in NICK and the way the credit crisis has gone I've learned to worry more.