Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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Although you would expect 40/2 's to raise only the nuts preflop, it so happens that a lot of them limp Aces and Kings and choose to raise every once in a while with some dopey hands.

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He's UTG+2, I can't assume he's randomly decided to pop it with JQ. If he was on the button, then perhaps...

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yea, every 40/2 I know treats the button a lot different from UTG+2 also.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

Pretty standard, AK is a marginal hand and should be treated as such.

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every 40/2 I know treats the button a lot different from UTG+2 also.

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Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

Mods, when presenting our case for a forum split, please use this thread as an example of why we need to do it ASAP.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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Mods, when presenting our case for a forum split, please use this thread as an example of why we need to do it ASAP.

[/ QUOTE ]Forum is being split Sunday, fool. 50- and 100+ ftw.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

The fact that you he is a 40 just means that you have less fold equity, which makes 3betting AK less profitable. I have no idea how villains play at 25NL...do villains really stack off with JJQQKK on A-high flops? If so, then yes, calling/raising > folding. If not, then folding>raising>calling since you have poor equity against his raising range of AAKKQQAK.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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Mods, when presenting our case for a forum split, please use this thread as an example of why we need to do it ASAP.

[/ QUOTE ]Forum is being split Sunday, fool. 50- and 100+ ftw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sooper.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

Please use a converter.

If I read the action right, then somebody open raised from MP for 5bb, then it was folded to hero with AKo in the blinds who folded.

In general, I would recommend reraising to 15bb, and if called by the original raiser and no one else, then betting at least 20bb at any flop as the default play. Occasionally, in the same heads up post-flop situation after you reraise, check/calling the flop when you hit top pair and leading the turn can be good too.

I would not recommend just folding except that you said, "player is playing 40/2 over 100+ hands." I still think reraising and leading the flop is pretty good. But folding vs a guy with a 2% pfr probably isn't terrible.

I wouldn't just call.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

There are several players i would fold AK to a raise from but they all have stats like 11/1 or 14/0.5 over a large sample. FWIW i also fold KK to a reraise from these guys. But a 40/2 player is a donk not a nit, the raise does not always mean a big hand. Often these guys limp with their Big hands because they just love to slowplay.

Just Re-raise to 3x the original bet and go on from there. If they shove then you should probably fold, but it won't happen very often

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

Interesting thread. As an aside, I've played about 5K hands with this particular villain at NL25. He plays 19/6 over that sample is down a few buy-ins. Just goes to show you that 100 hands isn't enough to peg someone.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

Maybe this villain hit a stretch of good cards and is really a 40/.5. Why do you assume (unless you know the hands he's played) that he's really looser, not tighter, than 2?

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

Folding AK here seems pretty weak, but I guess it's not a complete disaster.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

FWIW I played a 60/3 guy yesterday who raised UTG and showed down 59s.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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Pretty standard, AK is a marginal hand and should be treated as such.


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lol

its the 4th best hand in holdem(top 2.5%)

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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Pretty standard, AK is a marginal hand and should be treated as such.


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lol

its the 4th best hand in holdem(top 2.5%)

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If dude is so tight he raises like 1% (AA, KK) or even 2% (AA, KK, AK) then i can fold this pre, but i need a bigger sample than 100 hands to make that judgement and if they raise 2% and i take the lead, i can fold AK on a whiffed flop - but obv i can get shafted if an A or K hits.

I open folded AK in a tourney once.. lol donkaments

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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Maybe this villain hit a stretch of good cards and is really a 40/.5. Why do you assume (unless you know the hands he's played) that he's really looser, not tighter, than 2?

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Because there's a lot more people who raise 4% of their hands than .01% of their hands. Regression towards the mean, or something? It's the same reason someone running at 8PTBB/100 over 25K hands is more likely to be a break even player than a 16PTBB/100 poker god (I'm not saying OP is a break even player, just that he's more likely to be running hot than cold).

As an exercise in the usefulness of sample size, try the following: Play 10 100 hand sessions (either multitabling or in series). Look at your stats from each session. I run about 14/10 most of the time. Playing ten tables, a few were in that ballpark, some were more like 12/8 or 17/15, one table was 24/20, and one was 5/0. 5/0! That was over 95 hands. Actually, just forget the exercise and go back and look at 100 hand samples of your own play. The results may surprise you.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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Pretty standard, AK is a marginal hand and should be treated as such.


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lol

its the 4th best hand in holdem(top 2.5%)

[/ QUOTE ]pretty sure i leveled you. I'm not that nitty [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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Pretty standard, AK is a marginal hand and should be treated as such.


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lol

its the 4th best hand in holdem(top 2.5%)

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If dude is so tight he raises like 1% (AA, KK) or even 2% (AA, KK, AK) then i can fold this pre, but i need a bigger sample than 100 hands to make that judgement and if they raise 2% and i take the lead, i can fold AK on a whiffed flop - but obv i can get shafted if an A or K hits.

I open folded AK in a tourney once.. lol donkaments

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ok pretending that he raises top1%(people don't raise topX% hands where X is their PFR generally)

allin equity
AA 77.4
KK 22.6
AKo 18.5
AKs 23.1
QQ 18.3
JJ 18.6
65s 22.5 possibly the best hand to have in this spot vs someone who is passive

clearly everything besides AA is marginal in that spot

top2%(stove uses JJ+,1st number, QQ+ AKs 1/3rd AKo is better IMO 2nd number)
AA 79.9 82.3
KK 60.0 54.7
AKo 35.0 36.1
AKs 38.4 39.8
QQ 40.0 34.9
JJ 20.1 29.8(AK outperforms JJ unless the range gets a lot of TT-22, and not AQ type hands)

now allin equity isn't everything, but a player like this, typically extracts poorly, and pays off way too much, yeah you'll stack yourself some but anyone decent will turn a profit with AK here

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pretty sure i leveled you. I'm not that nitty

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well nice, then again you talk about always folding KK preflop, so its tough to say

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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Maybe this villain hit a stretch of good cards and is really a 40/.5. Why do you assume (unless you know the hands he's played) that he's really looser, not tighter, than 2?

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Because there's a lot more people who raise 4% of their hands than .01% of their hands. Regression towards the mean, or something? It's the same reason someone running at 8PTBB/100 over 25K hands is more likely to be a break even player than a 16PTBB/100 poker god (I'm not saying OP is a break even player, just that he's more likely to be running hot than cold).

As an exercise in the usefulness of sample size, try the following: Play 10 100 hand sessions (either multitabling or in series). Look at your stats from each session. I run about 14/10 most of the time. Playing ten tables, a few were in that ballpark, some were more like 12/8 or 17/15, one table was 24/20, and one was 5/0. 5/0! That was over 95 hands. Actually, just forget the exercise and go back and look at 100 hand samples of your own play. The results may surprise you.

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I think that villain's PRF range is 2% + a certain standard deviation that depends on the sample size. The deviation will be large since the sample size is small. So yes, it's more likely that villain's range is 3% than 1%, but it is not more likely (ignoring all other factors like the fact that he's a 40 VPIP) that his PRF range is >2 than <2.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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ok pretending that he raises top1%(people don't raise topX% hands where X is their PFR generally)

allin equity
AA 77.4
KK 22.6
AKo 18.5
AKs 23.1
QQ 18.3
JJ 18.6
65s 22.5 possibly the best hand to have in this spot vs someone who is passive

clearly everything besides AA is marginal in that spot

top2%(stove uses JJ+,1st number, QQ+ AKs 1/3rd AKo is better IMO 2nd number)
AA 79.9 82.3
KK 60.0 54.7
AKo 35.0 36.1
AKs 38.4 39.8
QQ 40.0 34.9
JJ 20.1 29.8(AK outperforms JJ unless the range gets a lot of TT-22, and not AQ type hands)

now allin equity isn't everything, but a player like this, typically extracts poorly, and pays off way too much, yeah you'll stack yourself some but anyone decent will turn a profit with AK here

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Thanks Bottomset, I think you've said it best and I appreciate the time you put into explaining your viewpoint. I agree with you. I think I should have called here and taken my advantage postflop.

Reraising against such a passive player, with seemingly no fold equity, doesn't seem to give me an edge... especially considering he's calling down with a lot of his range when I miss the flop.

Someone also mentioned they had 5,000 hands on this player playing closer to 16/6 or something, so maybe I've been overvalueing the hand sample I've been given. None the less, I think I'm convinced now that a call would be correct, followed VERY closely by a fold.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

To me these numbers say that it's a clear fold, unless we know he pays off too much with less than top pair.

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

i agree with the fold

Re: Folded AK to raise PF (Standard??)
 

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i agree with the fold

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lol