To Naj & Thremp
 

While you guys are completely correct about Assani's picks threads being a joke last year and his posting of a 100 unit play(wasn't that actually a typo that he counted because it won?), that was last year.

This year it seems he is seriously attempting to handicap games and bet actual money on them. He's posting his thoughts and looking for feedback about them. Isn't that the purpose of this forum?

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

I'm also interested in GB/SD under 43....just seems like 2 very good defenses and 2 middle of the pack offenses(yes I know SD was awesome last year, but so far this year they've looked pretty poor although maybe thats due to their opponent's good Ds)

Re: To Naj & Thremp
 

[ QUOTE ]
While you guys are completely correct about Assani's picks threads being a joke last year and his posting of a 100 unit play(wasn't that actually a typo that he counted because it won?), that was last year.

This year it seems he is seriously attempting to handicap games and bet actual money on them. He's posting his thoughts and looking for feedback about them. Isn't that the purpose of this forum?

[/ QUOTE ]

Last year I made a typo of "55" instead of "5". Someone notified me about it BEFORE THE GAME OCCURED AND I DECIDED TO BET 55 UNITS ON IT. I did not keep it at 55 "just because it won." Afterwards I made a few other big bets including a few 100+ unit bets.

With that said, thank you very much for your post, and you're exactly right. Last year, I admittedly was just picking every game and having a good time trying to see if I could end up a winner. I was betting $1 per unit and just joking around. This year I'm betting at least $100 on every pick I make. Icy pots, friend.

Re: To Naj & Thremp
 

i just hope he has enough 200 gazillion units left to pay off our bet..

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Some of the analysis is gibberish. There is no discussion of methodology or why any of the analysis makes sense. Like he doesn't "connect the dots" in any sort of meaningful way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you understand the thread then. When I post on Monday night/Tuesday morning I'm not posting my final picks. I'm posting my early reactions to the lines. Then throughout the week I'm posting more thoughts and analysis as well as welcoming all others to give their advice. Then I finally come up with my picks based upon all of that info. Its a journey through my thought process throughout the week.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

What do you suggest we do to people who lie about their W/L record or units won? You know, like you have done in the NCAA Football threads, and like you have done for years. Should we ban them, like you were banned form that other forum?

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is the story here? I'm intruiged, especially since he so often tries to play board cop and/or put down others in this forum.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
by a guy who was making '100-unit bets' last year, and misreporting his record then, and saying how he's undefeated ldo and etc.


[/ QUOTE ]

1. I never ever misreported my record

2. I made a $1 bet. I then made a $100 bet. At first I didn't even want to bet money on the games- I just wanted to post picks for fun. But you guys were adament that I should be betting on the games if I wanted to offer my advice so I did(even though the mods said that it was not required and that you guys were full of it). So let me ask you: What exactly did you want me to do there? I mean, I bet $100, so I reported it as a 100 unit bet....would you rather me have lied to you and said it wasn't a 100 unit bet? I'm confused as to why you have a problem with me simply telling the truth about how much I was betting.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

Assani,

You faked no vig lines and tried to account for them at the end of the season through some arbitrary method. You employ no sound fundamentals of either analysis or position sizing. You have no ability in handicapping and should be reading the basic works on sports betting instead of, god forbid, trying to offer advice.

You're just a complete and utter clown.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

Thremp,

At first I wasn't betting at all, but then when you guys made a big deal out of it I got a friend to book my bets for me, as I told him that most of them would only be a few dollars(1 unit = $1). HE DID NOT INCLUDE A VIG IN OUR BETS, SO I WAS NOT "FAKING" ANYTHING.

As for the rest of your post, that is your opinion. You happen to think that I'm not a very good sports bettor. Thats fine. But why not let other people make up their own minds. Some people like my insight and want me to post more of it: LINK.

However, the problem that I have with you is that you offer no helpful advice or good thoughts. You never say "Assani I feel as if you're making a mistake in xxxxxxx. Why don't you give xxxxxxxxx a try instead." Rather you make insulting posts and comments like the last sentence in your post above. You make statements that you'd never say to someone in real life because 1. It'd be considered insanely rude and 2. You'd get into a lot of fights. You hide behind the anonominity(probably totally butchered that word's spelling there, but you know what I mean) of the internet like a coward.

I've never claimed to be a great sports bettor. I have been very clear that I appriciate all advice given to me in this thread and that I'm more than willing to listen to alternate viewpoints. Moreover I've never talked down to or insulted anyone. I really don't understand why guys like you and ND have such hate.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

NajDorf and I disagree each other on several things and usually provide very cogent reasoning as to why (atleast I feel I do). You at first didn't bet your picks and then gave some flippant response to very real complaints about you not betting them. If you would take this [censored] seriously and just say: "Hey, I don't bet these picks but I want to paper track and will start with X bankroll, calc edge, and bet kelly/2 and post my thoughts so people can offer constructive criticism." No one would care. In fact I think it would've been applauded. Instead you continue to defend your ridiculous actions and random viewpoints. God forbid someone actually betting real dollars follows your recommendations.

BTW Did you link your gimmick?

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

Thremp, you've spent 5 or 6 rather detailed posts in this thread trying to deliver the message of "I don't think this guy delivered very good information last year, so don't follow his advice this year." Would you agree that is your general message? If so, can you please explain why you don't feel as if my VERY FIRST SENTENCE IN THE OP already addressed that?

Here it is again for you:

In the past I've taken a very casual and light-hearted approach to sports betting, but now that I live in Vegas I'd like to start betting the games more seriously.




I feel like that sentence should make last year a moot issue, but even still I'll defend myself....I never ever gave a flippant reponse about whether or not I wagered on the games. In fact, A MOD CAME INTO THE THREAD AND SPECIFICALLY SAID THAT IT WAS PERFECTLY FINE IF I POSTED MY PICKS WITHOUT ACTUALLY WAGERING. I believe the mod's words were something very similar to: "I would rather have someone provide analysis and discussion on games in which they are not wagering than have someone simply provide their wagers without offering any analysis.

That is why I felt as if it was ok to not wager on the picks I made. However you guys persisted, so I started wagering with my friend.



[ QUOTE ]
If you would take this [censored] seriously and just say: "Hey, I don't bet these picks but I want to paper track and will start with X bankroll, calc edge, and bet kelly/2 and post my thoughts so people can offer constructive criticism." No one would care. In fact I think it would've been applauded. Instead you continue to defend your ridiculous actions and random viewpoints. God forbid someone actually betting real dollars follows your recommendations.


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't mean this in a rude way, but you seriously lack reading comprehension skills...I don't know how I could've been any more clear last year that I was just doing it for fun and I WAS NOT TAKING IT SERIOUSLY. This year I am taking it seriously, and I have been clear about that. I apologize for having a light hearted thread last year in your "oh so serious" forum. If you didn't like non-serious threads then why didn't you just ignore my threads last year?


[ QUOTE ]
BTW Did you link your gimmick?

[/ QUOTE ]
I have absolutely no clue what this means.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Performify

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

Guys, he's 3-0, so obviously he's amazing

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Guys, he's 3-0, so obviously he's amazing

[/ QUOTE ]

So, so true around these parts.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

What do you suggest we do to people ...like you were banned form that other forum?

[/ QUOTE ]
What exactly is the story here?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the moderator from the other place who banned me, I had a problem with his lies about his record among other things, and the biggest 'post-game' picker and hack of all is their leader.

Here's a direct quote from his posts on a [very famous] game earlier this year:

"Yesterday, 10:34 PM
College Bowl Season: Week 3 (beginning 1/1/07)
Views: 8,157
Posted By S....
this is called the idiot tax. turned a great day...

this is called the idiot tax. turned a great day into a pile of [censored].
buying back as much as i can.
results as follows:
Okla wins: push
boise wins: lose a pentuple [5 units]

Today, 12:25 AM
Replies: 273
College Bowl Season: Week 3 (beginning 1/1/07)
Views: 8,157
Posted By S...
Boise pk (double)
Boise pk (double)
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i ended up hedging this...
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i ended up hedging this to break even if boise state won"


4 hours after the game starts, and after that crazy finish, instead of 5u loss it's magically breakeven.
Somehow didn't post during OT for some reason...I wonder why....not like that game ended...he didn't post after Okla tied the game...

or after Okla took the lead in regulation...

or after Okla took the lead in OT...

or when Boise had to convert on 4th down...

or before Boise went for 2 pts...isn't that odd? This is the guy who banned me, LOLOL. Yeah, he's trustworthy.

I will happily call out any poster who posts his record continually using no-vig lines, and lines never available. Others have mentioned that they feel similarly.
I disagree with mt2r, various horse and cbb-cappers, and data miners, and people who guarantee picks.

If you don't like me commenting on it, stop doing it, and/or also go to wagerline and post all your picks there, link to it, and then we can ALL go and admire your perspicacity in January.
Fair? If that's too much to ask, you can always put me on ignore, it's your option entirely.

FTR, posters who don't like criticism, and then heavily criticize my posts, should look up 'hypocrite' in the dictionary. If they know how to use a dictionary.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by Performify

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
And apparently OP lied and used no-vig picks last year [according to like 5 other posters] and your buddies with him, so is it okay for him to do it?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know anything about OP. How am I buddies with him? Even if he lied about his record, so does your "buddy" Naj, so why should Naj come in here and attack him?

[ QUOTE ]

Stalking someone from site to site is just creepy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I had never even heard of that site until this link was posted in another thread:

http://messageboard.tuckermax.com/showthread.php?t=4884

I had never even heard of that forum, and have never posted there.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thremp makes a conscious effort never to contribute anything of too much substance, because he doesn't believe in giving away "valuable" information.

[/ QUOTE ]


Pot calling the kettle black?

I guess I could liken this to VP forums. Why should I do all the hard work and research and then post it publicly for all to benefit from and take direct dollars from me? I have no problem helping people out. I mean I could teach a retarded monkey to make several grand a month better sports from 10k a month. But it seems that isn't what people care about.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thremp makes a conscious effort never to contribute anything of too much substance, because he doesn't believe in giving away "valuable" information.

[/ QUOTE ]


Pot calling the kettle black?

I guess I could liken this to VP forums. Why should I do all the hard work and research and then post it publicly for all to benefit from and take direct dollars from me? I have no problem helping people out. I mean I could teach a retarded monkey to make several grand a month better sports from 10k a month. But it seems that isn't what people care about.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no problem with this viewpoint. I understand where you are coming from.

I just don't understand why you are jumping on someone who is trying to share his picks.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

PO,

Ah. I think its mainly misleading. Like I'm sure I could start a cricket betting thread and post some solid BSP logic, but I hope someone would say, "Dude, that awful. Stop." Then again meh...

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
PO,

Ah. I think its mainly misleading. Like I'm sure I could start a cricket betting thread and post some solid BSP logic, but I hope someone would say, "Dude, that awful. Stop." Then again meh...

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the problem I have... who gets to decide that someone's analysis amounts to Bar Stool Punditry?

You and Naj?

I consider Naj to be a complete square. There are guys on this forum making 20-30-40-FIFTY! football picks per week, and no one bothers them. Maybe they are winning cappers (probably not) - who knows? Should the "regulars" get to decide who gets shouted down?

It doesn't bother me that this guy posts picks. It doesn't even bother me that someone might decide to follow them.

I also don't have a problem with someone disagreeing with his picks, as long as they are not trying to shout him down. In other words, if he makes a pick and someone provides analysis which disagrees, that's fine. But to see Naj of all people (a square who clearly bets too many games based on BSP type logic, and then doctors his record) come in here and try to shut him down is too much.

This thread is a total waste of teh internetz
 

No wonder this board has so little traffic.

1) Poster A criticizes touts.
2) Tout B complains that anyone dare criticize him/his pix.
3) Poster C criticizes Poster A for criticizing Tout B
4) Postr D links to an unrelated board having nothing to do with OP/Tout picks or criticism
5) Poster E says Poster A is right.
6) Poster F says stop criticizing newb posters
7) Poster G starts I HAS LOCKS thread.
8) Poster H points out the hypocrisy of criticizing critical posts of other board members.
9) Poster I calls everyone a liar he/she doesn't like.

I don't think the grouping of NFL picks in one thread is the problem with this forum. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]



Go Lions. Play of the Week at -2.5!

Re: This thread is a total waste of teh internetz
 

[ QUOTE ]
Go Lions. Play of the Week at -2.5!

[/ QUOTE ]

But is it a LOCK?

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
But to see Naj of all people (a square who clearly bets too many games based on BSP type logic,

[/ QUOTE ]

Supposedly this guy has made Pick of the Year type threads in college basketball and football. Rather than you bash someone you think is bashing someone else for whatever reason, can you tell us if those picks -- I guess they are gonna be his 'best' picks -- were square or sharp?

Are you qualified to make that determination in those sports? I have no idea, as I'm relatively new here, I'm just asking. Are you qualified to determine solid sharp logic from BSP logic?

If Nate, and Thremp and Naj and MYTurn post 3 BSP picks, and 10 posters come and loudly disagree by saying how great the Saints are laying points on the road, that seems to qualify as a BSP pick. How do you determine if someone's post is a BSP pick on your own? I'd love to learn more about this stuff.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

Bennett,

Listen to the logic they provide. If someone says "No team should ever lay 17pts!!!11" that is a square statement.

If Indy is laying 4 on the road and someone says "I am on the Colts, they are gonna win by at least 20" that is a square statement.

If someone decides to start using facts to support their picks and the best one they can come up with is "Jacksonville is 9-1 ATS coming off games where they rushed 50 yds or less" is a square statement.

Looking at sites like Covers or sites that list the %'ages of what the public is betting on is an easy way to see who the public are all over.

Two people can provide excellent, detailed reasoning on why one team is the good pick over another in the same game. When you see gallons of drivel on one team with no real backing, that is who you know is worth a damn in their opinion.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

Thanks!

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

PO,

Of course I decide. But the most important reason why I don't rip on others is because I like them.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

And apparently OP lied and used no-vig picks last year [according to like 5 other posters] and your buddies with him, so is it okay for him to do it?



[/ QUOTE ]

Please stop spreading these lies, as they are simply untrue.

First off, I never ever lied about my record from last year. You can easily search my posts from last year by doing this:

Search: -re:
Username Search: Assani Fisher
Newer than: 13 months
Older than: 8 months


I am getting tired of people attacking my character. Again, I will take you through what happened last year:


-I was new to sports betting and I started keeping track of my results for fun. I wasn't really betting on the games, so there was no vig. I was clear about this.

-People got on my about this and said that I had to be actually betting on the games or to stop posting. A mod came in and told me to ignore them and what I was doing was fine. Nevertheless, I wasn't sure what to think and I didn't want everyone dismissing my picks, so I found a friend and started betting really small with him.

-That friend charged me no vig, so I didn't include them in my results. Everyone then jumped on me about this, so I calculated the vig myself...I did this to the best of my ability, and if you want to go back and check my work you'll see that I never ever tried to cheat in any way to make myself look better.

-That I lied about my record is completely bogus and bs. Go search my threads and find one time that I lied and I will leave this forum forever. Its simply not true. I posted my picks before every game went off(usually a good 3-4 days before) and this site does not let you edit after like 30 minutes, so theres no way for me to change anything....go look for yourself please.



You say "according to like 5 posters".....dude its more like according to 2 posters: Thremp and ND, and they clearly have a history of attacking other posters(and don't seem to have the most sparkling clear history of honesty themselves).


Edited to add: And Post Oak and I are not "buddies." I've never heard of him before now.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

You said you are 6-0, with only 3 picks posted. That's lying.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
You said you are 6-0, with only 3 picks posted. That's lying.

[/ QUOTE ]

What did I lie about?

I am 6-0.

I have posted 3 of those picks.

I have not posted the other 3.

I said this from the very beginning in my OP.


Where are you seeing a lie?

Here let me help you out:

lie1 /laɪ/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[lahy] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation noun, verb, lied, ly·ing.
–noun 1. a false statement made with deliberate intent to deceive; an intentional untruth; a falsehood.


unverified
adjective
lacking proof or substantiation



Theres a difference between the two.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

i keep checking this thread to see if you actually responded to my comments about a football game. but no, still just a few people bitching at each other relentlessly. stfu already with your personal bs

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

Ok, whatever you say. I have no interest in arguing.

Posting your results in a sports betting forum with no vig doesn't seem honest to me. I don't see anyone posting there rake-free results at HSNL or LLHE boards. Or anywhere else at 2p2.

And you get upset that someone doubted your honesty [understandable!] and then do the same thing to other people.

hed azplode.
http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/2...istencyrj7.jpg

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

You say you are 6-0. You have 3 picks posted that have outcomes, thus, you are 3-0. Those first 3 games shouldn't be counted, but then again, you're a douche.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, whatever you say. I have no interest in arguing.

Posting your results in a sports betting forum with no vig doesn't seem honest to me. I don't see anyone posting there rake-free results at HSNL or LLHE boards. Or anywhere else at 2p2.

And you get upset that someone doubted your honesty [understandable!] and then do the same thing to other people.

hed azplode.
http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/2...istencyrj7.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

If someone was playing at WSEX or at a home game that took no rake, then would you have a problem with them posting their results without including the rake?

If not, then why do you fault me for not including the vig WHEN I WAS MAKING BETS WITH A PERSON THAT WAS NOT TAKING ANY VIG???

Edited to add: And I'm not throwing accusations around at all. The only thing remotely close I ever said is that ND doesn't seem to have a crystal clear past regarding honesty. Thats hardly anywhere close to the accusations you made of "this guy is a liar."

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
You say you are 6-0. You have 3 picks posted that have outcomes, thus, you are 3-0. Those first 3 games shouldn't be counted, but then again, you're a douche.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf did I ever do to you to warrant the personal insults and attack?

I'm 6-0 on the year so far. I don't really care if you believe me or not. Why is everyone here so obsessed with having a good record? I jsut post my picks to generate good discussion...I don't really care if you guys think I'm a good sports bettor or not.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really care if you guys think I'm a good sports bettor or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't really care if you guys think I'm a good sports bettor or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure whats funny, but its true. I want to win lots of money. I don't really care for recognition is this field.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

I'm honestly not sure what to do with this thread. I think about locking it and giving some people some time off. Then I think maybe its better to get some stuff out in the open. I dunno.

Couple comments:

1) personal insults have to stop. Calling someone a douche or etc is still over the line for the tone of this forum

2) if you don't like this thread, I really don't know why you open it.

3) I have no problem with accountability or calling out people for shady behavior. I've been on both ends before. Sometimes it needs to be done. There's a big difference between that and letting the sins of the past die. I could really care less what Naj did years ago on another board. I definitely care if he or anyone else is fudging records. But then again, I wouldn't be following someone's picks without tracking their record myself anyways.

Everyone involved in all this [censored] needs to take some [censored] accountability over their actions. Own your own consequences in life.

Oh, and Assani one thing I agree with re: all the criticism -- you should never bring up a record for picks that can't be publicly documented in a timestamped fashion. The fact that you won your first three picks is entirely irrelevant if it can't be reliably proven. Leave them out of your record. More importantly, realize that not doing so is a mistake and learn from the criticism.

Same thing with rehashing the no-juice lines -- we all had this fight last year. there's really no reason to bring it up again.

-P

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

Performify, thanks for the reply. I would more than encourage you to ban every and all posters who ever resort to personal insults.

As for me listing my week 1 picks, let me explain to you my reasoning...The main reason I post here it to get better. I think that by posting all of my picks(including the unverifiable ones) it gives people more of a sample size to see my betting habits and perhaps my weaknesses and mistakes.

Let me give you an example:

Suppose someone came to the low stakes HE forum and wanted some help, so he posted a bunch of hand histories. Some of them were exact online hand histories with complete info. Some others he didn't copy and paste and he just was going by memory. He happened to be a winner over the ones in which he didn't have the exact hand histories. If he did this, do you really think people would say to him "Oh you're obviously lying about winning those hands since you didn't copy and paste the HHs" or do you think they'd just believe him and offer him their advice?

Why is this forum so much different? Why is everyone so obsessed with their record and showing off? If I went into any of the poker forums here and claimed to have won 3 hands, nobody would doubt me. Yet I come in here and claim to have won 3 picks and everyone gets all excited and attacks my character.

As for the no juice lines, I really don't see why you're faulting me for finding a better bet than you guys found(my friend offered me no juice lines). If 99% of all books have one team at -6.5 points and laying -110 juice, but you go out and find a great line that has -6 and only -105 juice then should you not be able to include that bet in your results? Isn't trying to find good lines one of the "skills" of sports betting? Why was I penalized for finding a guy willing to bet me with no juice?



I hate to continue to derail this thread, but I absolutely will not stand by and watch as people insult my personal character and my honesty. Performify, all I want to do is talk about football wagering in this thread. My recommendation is that any post in here discussing anything else should be deleted by you and the person be given a warning/suspension/ban.

Re: Assani\'s NFL Wagering Thread
 

Assani,

Typically, public records only use widely available lines. Anyone with half a brain can beat sports otherwise.