Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

dave,
wtf.

even ignoring everything else you said, how does 'I don't see why a flush draw wouldn't play it this way' lead to 'WA/WB FTW'

HELP

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

Ok let me clarify one thing, I probably should have included the line about a flush draw with the rest of the discussion of possible holdings. Read that statement as seperate from the WA/WB comment. The WA/WB comment was a suggestion for what line I would take here. I'm not saying flush draw so WA/WB.

Ok, so lets talk about this hand and start with what we know, and obvious things. Two things make this hand hard to play:

1. Villian is a good player, unlike most of the rest of the field

2. We are deep stacked.

Obviously against a normal (bad) villian and if we weren't so deep stacked we would 3bet flop or maybe just call flop and try to get it AI on the turn.

But here, I think we know that villian is a thinking player, and I think we also have to assume that villian knows who Ansky is. Even though someone else said that they talked to him and he played the hand assuming Ansky was a normal tourney donk, the reality is that at high stakes most good players probably know each other, especially someone like ansky.

So we know that villian knows who Ansky is, and that means some leveling is probably going to happen here. To be honest, I think Ansky is outleveling himself here and its probably best the play the hand straightforward. So we know that villian is very likely to try to pull a move, or at least push a very marginal edge and be very aggressive because he knows he has FE against Ansky. I mean, the fact that Ansky posted this is proof of that, he considered (and maybe did) folding here.

Do people check/raise flush draws on the flop? Yeah, I do it, especially with fewer other players in like this when I think I can get folds. Is a straight draw within villian's range? Yeah probably, and same reasoning. Hence why I think one of those is likely (although the flush draw more so) given this flop action.

As I said, I think JJ would have re-raised PF, if only to get info on Ansky. He's a good player, and knows that JJ is gonna suck OOP against another good player and another villian. I think TT probably re-raises PF too, but it's close (personally my standard line is to reraise TT, but whatever).

I think it's pretty obvious that villian would have re-raised AA/KK PF, so those are strongly discounted.
Villian could have called with 77, 88, or even 55 here. I mean obviously any pair is within his range. He might have even called with AK/AQ sooted clubs. That would make sense given the action too.

I mean, with a lot of the top players on this forum, their strength comes from playing post flop and their range is any two PF. Are we willing to say this (his range is almost any two) for this guy? Probably not. But I do think 44, 55 were in his calling range too, and I think that villian is smart enough to see that the flop came all low, and Ansky is standard c-betting, but is likely to have missed with like maybe half his PF raising range (which is also wide, but not that wide b/c Ansky is EP, AK/AQ/AJ all missed, plus hands like TJs etc).

So to me, it looks like we're behind like 1/3 of villian's hands (33, 22, 66, 99), and ahead of 77, 88, TT, 44, 55 and flush or straight draws. I doubt villian would have two pair here, I mean would he really call with 63?

I guess the flush draw gets discounted when he bets out turn. But if he wants to rep a set, wouldn't he bet out turn?

Personally I just don't play scared of sets. If someone outflopped me in a 3 way pot good for him. No one's gonna blame you for stacking off with an overpair on this board. Yes I realize that this is a deep stacked situation, so Ansky could maybe get away from it, as opposed to if stacks were like half what they are, but still, are we really talking about folding with an overpair just because we got someone playing back at us (which is what we want with an overpair isn't it?). This thread sort of reminds me (and I don't mean to insult it) of the thread Betgo made about folding AK PF when him and villian "potted it back and forth". I mean are you really trying to narrow a villian's range so much that you can fold a premium hand?

I suppose WA/WB isn't really appropriate here because we're putting in 40% of our stack if we call turn. However, I just don't think I can fold here. Part of me wants to just call turn, and call any river, which will probably be not a push (3000 from villian seems about right on the river) and even if we lose we still have a pretty good stack given the blinds. I don't think a push from us ever gets called on the turn from hands we beat, except maybe like A6? I don't really think it accomplishes that much, but then again I think it's the safest line because we keep the flush or straight draws from coming in on the river. Villian can't call a push for ~6k into a 6k pot with a flush draw, or a straight draw. So yeah, let me revise my suggestion and just say push turn, villian folding is fine because we win a pretty big pot, rather than lose an even bigger one on the river.

I hope this makes sense, fire away everyone.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

If I knew he was good I'd probably fold flop. If I didn't know he was good I might go broke, it is the Sunday Million, he could have 77. Calling flop and push turn.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

Funkii, all clear now?

Villian is a good player.
Therefore, he'll always reraise AA/KK preflop.
Against another good player who he assumes knows who he is, he'll check-raise bluff him on the flop a lot.
Then when called, he'll dump his entire stack on the turn and river trying to get Ansky to fold.

That's way more profitable than taking advantage of the 3,000 bad players in the tournament.

(Also, JJ and TT have no set value OOP 200BB deep)

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

This spot sucks, but those of you calling the c/raise to "see the turn" are definitely spewing, because another bet is coming like 95% of the time. If you are calling the flop I don't see how you fold most turns.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

got it stumpy, thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
This spot sucks, but those of you calling the c/raise to "see the turn" are definitely spewing, because another bet is coming like 95% of the time. If you are calling the flop I don't see how you fold most turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

my math was obviously extremely sketchy, but it is an example of how calling the flop but folding the turn could be +EV (in mine it was almost neutral) whereas calling the turn is massively -EV

apparently you think they're betting anything they raise 95% of the time, which my assumptions disagreed with, which explains the discrepancy. you really think 95%?

edit: btw I do think the flop is probably a fold based on my intuitive summing up of all the factors I ignored in my post, but I'm not sure.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
Funkii, all clear now?

Villian is a good player.
Therefore, he'll always reraise AA/KK preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

All I'm saying with that is that I think the need to reraise AA/KK PF outweighs his possible trickyness tendancies. Even if he's very tricky, he'd still reraise PF.

[ QUOTE ]


Against another good player who he assumes knows who he is, he'll check-raise bluff him on the flop a lot.


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say villian knows that Ansky knows who he is. I said that villian knows who Ansky is. There's a difference.

Bluffing (really semi bluffing) isn't unusual?

[ QUOTE ]

Then when called, he'll dump his entire stack on the turn and river trying to get Ansky to fold.



[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say that, it's also not his entire stack. Also, I said the FD is discounted with the turn bet out, but I was talking about the possible FD only on the flop.

[ QUOTE ]

That's way more profitable than taking advantage of the 3,000 bad players in the tournament.


[/ QUOTE ]

Insert jokes often made on this forum about 4 betting light against other good players.

[ QUOTE ]

(Also, JJ and TT have no set value OOP 200BB deep)

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure that that has to do with anything. I said JJ would have raised PF, but TT is kinda close.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

Dave, I'm not going to get into this too deep, but:

I have very few strategy posts. When I make one, I'm pretty self-concious about not sounding like an idiot, so I spend a lot of time working over answers, and then trying to condense the response down to important points. This is vital to a useful discussion. I'm quite sure many people skipped your reply entirely. Beyond that, trying to reduce a reply to vital information really exposes weak points, contradictions, or other mistakes.

I realize Funkii asked you to elaborate, but try to keep it directed, and expand further on one point if Funkii has a follow-up question.

Here are my StumpyNotes on "DaveD raps with WTFunkii":

Two thinking players.
Preflop his calling range is very wide, but I believe TT+ would reraise. (TT-,AQs+,AQo+,Connectors)

Postflop, the check-raise could be a draw, a set, or an underpair.
We're ahead of 2/3rds of these, so I call and see a turn. (No exact range given. Pairs + ??)

The turn is a brick. I don't like calling, I don't like folding, and if I push nothing we beat calls.
So I think we should push and get rid of the draws. <No EV Calculations Provided>

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
This thread sort of reminds me (and I don't mean to insult it) of the thread Betgo made about folding AK PF when him and villian "potted it back and forth". I mean are you really trying to narrow a villian's range so much that you can fold a premium hand?



[/ QUOTE ]
In the thread I posted, I had KK with 250xBB, villain and I potted it back and forth preflop. I am not bad enough to keep raising with AK. The consensus was I should have stopped potting it, and as played I had a fold. Of course I got allin against AA and busted.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
This spot sucks, but those of you calling the c/raise to "see the turn" are definitely spewing, because another bet is coming like 95% of the time. If you are calling the flop I don't see how you fold most turns.

[/ QUOTE ]

i really disagree with this, there are plenty of hands which will c/r flop, then slow way down on the turn.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

Ansky, what hands would YOU c/raise and then check the turn with?

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

And if he checks do you bet?

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ansky, what hands would YOU c/raise and then check the turn with?

[/ QUOTE ]

every hand in my flop c/r range is also in my turn ck range and also in my turn bet range.

I know its a dick response but its true.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ansky, what hands would YOU c/raise and then check the turn with?

[/ QUOTE ]

every hand in my flop c/r range is also in my turn ck range and also in my turn bet range.

I know its a dick response but its true.

[/ QUOTE ]

so ill, so full of tricks

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dave, I'm not going to get into this too deep, but:

I have very few strategy posts. When I make one, I'm pretty self-concious about not sounding like an idiot, so I spend a lot of time working over answers, and then trying to condense the response down to important points. This is vital to a useful discussion. I'm quite sure many people skipped your reply entirely. Beyond that, trying to reduce a reply to vital information really exposes weak points, contradictions, or other mistakes.



[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with quick, short responses is there's no reasoning given, which is bad. If people want to skim over a longer post that's fine, and their loss, but I tried pretty hard to flush out my thinking.

[ QUOTE ]


I realize Funkii asked you to elaborate, but try to keep it directed, and expand further on one point if Funkii has a follow-up question.


[/ QUOTE ]

He asked a pretty vague question that required an in depth answer. The problem with your stumpynotes is that they arent complete, and miss the point sometimes.

[ QUOTE ]

Postflop, the check-raise could be a draw, a set, or an underpair.


[/ QUOTE ]

Underpair to us, but an overpair to the board. That's kinda important. I also said to discount a set because I pretty much never play scared of sets. If he hit one, aw shucks oh well.

[ QUOTE ]


We're ahead of 2/3rds of these, so I call and see a turn. (No exact range given. Pairs + ??)


[/ QUOTE ]

EXACT range is given, basically. All pocket pairs are accounted for. I said that villian probably never has two pair here. I even said that AKs is possible here. I guess I sorta assumed he's not doing this air, and that seems pretty much the case. There's not many other interesting hands that modify anything, they're pretty much all air at this point. I guess I sort of lumped flush and straight draws together as part of his range that we're ahead of. I don't need go through every possible hand and say what we should do against it.

Also Stumpy, you need to realize that putting players on an exact hand range is futile, and often counterproductive. Especially good, tricky players. Their strength comes from them often having ATC. Yes you should try to do equity calculations and stuff, and try to think about what likely holdings are, but they're just that, likely . Look around at the threads in the HSMTT forum and you'll find that there's few that involve poker stove and pinpointing exact hand ranges. High level players are beyond that.

[ QUOTE ]

The turn is a brick. I don't like calling, I don't like folding, and if I push nothing we beat calls.
So I think we should push and get rid of the draws. <No EV Calculations Provided>

[/ QUOTE ]

See comment above about EV calculations.

There is value to winning the pot right now. We don't need to do the technically +EV thing on every street, like betting enough so that villian is getting worse than 5:1 on a call so we profit. Even if we could raise some less amount than all in and get villian to call with a draw unprofitably such that we're charging him too much, it's not happening because of stack sizes. My point here was to push and win the pot here, and I'm happy doing that.

At the same time, I thought that because Ansky is so convinced that he's beat here, the better line may be just to check/call down. It's very close and I'm not sure what's better.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This thread sort of reminds me (and I don't mean to insult it) of the thread Betgo made about folding AK PF when him and villian "potted it back and forth". I mean are you really trying to narrow a villian's range so much that you can fold a premium hand?



[/ QUOTE ]
In the thread I posted, I had KK with 250xBB, villain and I potted it back and forth preflop. I am not bad enough to keep raising with AK. The consensus was I should have stopped potting it, and as played I had a fold. Of course I got allin against AA and busted.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no need to defend yourself, the point is that you made the right move by going all in, because you can't pinpoint a villian's range that much. I think Ansky is trying to do that here.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

haha who the [censored] says you can't pinpoint a villains range that much? lol

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

yeah so it's a pretty easy shove if you discount sets, I'll have to try that more often

also my question wasn't at all vague, and you didn't even really answer it. WA/WB stands for way ahead/way behind, right? that's not an answer for what you should do on the flop (nor, of course, is it remotely true)
you said it was what line you would take, which makes no sense.
the problem with your long posts is that they contradict themselves (such as saying he could have a flush draw but that you are WA/WB).

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

I think we're pretty wrecked on this flop. We look really strong. I don't think he really c/rs much worse for value, and I'm not really sure he c/rs a FD since it really doesn't look like he has FE, but then again, like everybody always c/rs a FD here cause they don't really like they're other options. He def c/rs everything that beats us here obv.

With position, I'm still pretty tempted to call because I really don't expect two barrels from a FD so we can confidently fold the turn. But, there are 13-25 combos of hands that beat us (depending on how likely he is to call with 45o... I guess AA/KK are also sort of possible), and not a huge amount of hands that we beat. Plus the hands that we beat have like 36+% equity on us.

I think just fold flop.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
yeah so it's a pretty easy shove if you discount sets, I'll have to try that more often


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would we discount sets here? Seems like we should expect him to play a set like this always.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

was joking, dave suggested ignoring the possibility of a set

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

As is often the case, NoahSD has shown up to give some thoughtful yet concise advice and give what, when i think about it, is likely the right answer.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
As is often the case, NoahSD has shown up to give some thoughtful yet concise advice and give what, when i think about it, is likely the right answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

there's only one internet connection in this room, so i used it all day in an attempt to dethrone him as MTT smart guy

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
haha who the [censored] says you can't pinpoint a villains range that much? lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Unknown villian raised me a bunch of times PF, must be AA. I fold KK.

I'll keep that in mind if I end up at your table. Also, the FAQ must be wrong.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

Anksy if you can fold KK preflop 75 bbs deep, then you can fold here. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
yeah so it's a pretty easy shove if you discount sets, I'll have to try that more often

also my question wasn't at all vague, and you didn't even really answer it. WA/WB stands for way ahead/way behind, right? that's not an answer for what you should do on the flop (nor, of course, is it remotely true)
you said it was what line you would take, which makes no sense.
the problem with your long posts is that they contradict themselves (such as saying he could have a flush draw but that you are WA/WB).

[/ QUOTE ]

This forum got so much more ADD while I was gone.

I explicitly say at least once that WA/WB was a consideration for the turn play forward. I said my slightly preferred line was to shove turn. I just hate the idea of folding because we're afriad of 3 hands, especially when we're ahead of at least twice as many others.

For the record, what would be the ideal action from villian here that we would like and not fold to? If he just check/calls down?

Also, I didn't say ignore the possibility of a set, otherwise I wouldn't have mentioned them in my other posts right? I said that I don't play scared of them. Villians can always have sets, I just mean you can't be afraid of seeing one every time villian puts up a fight.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

what do you mean you don't play scared of them?

Without a doubt, 4 of his most likely hands here are 33 55 66 and 45. In fact they are as likely as any other hands, prob the most likely 4 hands.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

[ QUOTE ]
what do you mean you don't play scared of them?

Without a doubt, 4 of his most likely hands here are 33 55 66 and 45. In fact they are as likely as any other hands, prob the most likely 4 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be a nit, but we're still ahead of 55, you mean 22.

My point is that villians can always outflop us, just because they put up a fight doesn't mean they always have.

77, 88, TT are overpairs on that board on the flop. Villian might think he's ahead (and I don't know if I blame him given your flop call) of AK/AQ or other overcards that missed. He might even think 55 is good here.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

I actually used the same wording as you, so yes you did say you "discount a set because [you] never played scared of sets"

there are no hard and fast rules in poker and it's ok to fold if it's really likely they have a set, even if you have ZOMG an overpair

and wa/wb is not an action you can take, it's a description of the polarization of your opponents range.

I'm sorry you hate the idea of folding, but since it's blatantly -EV, maybe you should warm up to it.

ADD ADD I HAVE ADD

oh and yes, ansky is correct (sorta), if you label '33' as a hand the same way 'A9s' is a hand, then the three set combos and 45 are the 4 most common hands he will show up with. He might show up with a flush draw slightly more than those hands (and thats not a contradiction), but that doesn't mean you should call him down because that would be retarded.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

dave, seriously, how often do you think a good player (or even a bad player) raises 77, 88, TT on this flop AND bet the turn? the flop call does not imply in any way that those hands are good, and even if it did he still would not bet them on the turn.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

I mean part of this here is taking the other side of things because everyone is saying fold, and when everyone says one thing I usually like to say the other. Everyone is hating on me just because I'm arguing the other side. Although to be honest, I don't remember the last time I folded an overpair, but then again I don't play above 55s.

I understand that he could have a set here, I just think everyone's way too scared of it.

I always thought wa/wb was a description of action you can take, namely basically stationing unless villian pushes or bets too much. Thats what I meant here, call the turn bet, call a reasonable river bet.

It's hard to say what a good player will do, because that's part of what makes him a good player. What I think is key however, is that a good player knows that he's ahead of all the broadway hands Ansky might have, and draws Ansky might have. He would also realize that that 9 was very unlikely to have helped Ansky, and think his hand was still best.

I would raise the flop with those hands, if only to get my opponent to define his hand (but also because I thought there was a good chane I was best). Same is true for the turn. Definitely with TT, it's still an overpair. I think a good player is more likely to raise those hands because he realizes these things, as opposed to a bad player who would play weak tight and be scared and not think about the opponent's range.

Incidently, I think if we're folding QQ here, we're folding AA/KK? We've already pretty much eliminated those hands from his range. Personally I just can't see myself doing that here, and I realize that this is different than normal because it's so deep stacked, but still.

Oh yeah, and one thing I just thought of, wouldn't a set have slow played even a little? I mean why does he want to scare out the other player. A good player has to know that a c/r is really scary here. Why doesn't he just check/call and come alive on the turn? I'm not sure what's more scary/obvious with a set, c/ring flop or c/ring turn, but the second seems like a more standard line with a set.

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

calling the flop w/ a set would be the worst thing ever ever ever

Re: Overpair garbage bla bla sunday mill
 

Ansk

The problem here is that your hand, if you call, is very transparent. Unless you really think he'd c/r you and fire off two more barrels expecting you to fold an overpair early in this tournament (which sounds absurd to me), you're up against a huge hand or a huge draw. Not the range to mess with with 8k left to bet.