Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

with an aggression factor this low they show up with a flush most of the time (at least in my games).

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

Here's a hand that I analyzed recently by assigning a calling range for my opponent if I were to shove and used Pokerstove to calculate my equity against it. Hopefully you guys could provide comments on the positive/negative aspects of it. DISCLAIMER: preflop is probably bad.

EXAMPLE HAND:

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $41.25
Hero: $42.50
CO: $83.70
Button: $89.15
SB: $32.35
BB: $28.20

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, 4 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.75, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $9</font> . . .

I haven't played many hands with this villain so I can't get a good read on his check-raising range.

However, up to this point I had been playing pretty aggressively and so I thought besides his obvious big hands he might also check-raise here sometimes as a bluff.

If he calls my jam, he might have something like:

9c9s,9d9s,9h9s,88-77,33,A9s,K9s,T8s,98s,97s, and A9o.

This range consists of:

A few combos of top set, middle and bottom set, top two, a couple combos of T8, the strongest top pairs, and occasionally he will have played a really weird overpair. He also might sometimes stacks off with second pair: 88.

My equity in this case is around 34%.

Given that I have 34% equity when called, he has to fold here greater than 30% of the time for me to start showing a profit on a shove.

Questions:

a) with such little info to act on, is it reasonable to assume that my opponent will fold &gt; 30% of the time with this action sequence?
b) what is a decent estimate of an average opponent's check-raising range on this board with this preflop/flop action?
c) if I do shove, is the calling range I've assigned to my opponent a decent one?

Any comments on my assumptions or methods would be great.

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

I'd put him on A9,K9,q9,j9,109,88,A7 or possibly 1010,108,98
The CR to $9 - to me - seems that he wants to end the hand now.

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($32)
BB ($34.60)
UTG ($66.15)
Hero ($24.90)
CO ($15)
Button ($31.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.35.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, CO (poster) calls $1, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($2.95) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, CO calls $2.

Turn: ($6.95) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $11.65</font>, Hero calls ??

what is the range of my villain?

45/18/0.93 180hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Heres my take on the analysis of this hand, something which im working on.

I may be wrong, so dont take it for gospel.


So his range is wide on the flop, we can bet for value/take pot down. +EV bet.


[/b]Turn analysis:[/b]

Now here its probably wise to do two things, first give him a VERY TIGHT RANGE followed by a more optimistic/wider range.


Tight range:
Flush (9s8s will do for pokerstove, a flush is a flush and we have no redraw anyway so its fine)
Sets(QQ/TT/22)
2pair but ONLY WITH REDRAW TO FLUSH, Qs or Ts).

Poker stove raw range: QQ,TT,22,9s8s,QcTs,QdTs,QhTs,QsTc,QsTd,QsTh


Equity here: 7%





Wider Range
Same as tight range but we add others now.
2pair without redraws(QTo),
TPTK+Redraw,
TPTK+no redraw


Stove range: QQ,TT,22,AQs,AQo,QTo

Equity here: 37% (&lt;2:1 required).



Now if we interpolate this range of %7 to 37% and look at our pot odds.

$7 pot + $4 bet + $12 shove =$23 vs $8 to call. 3:1 pot odds.


Optimistic range, easy call.
Tight range, Easy fold.

However the wider range isnt very wide, due to the line he took i feel he has FD alot more than say KQ here hence i discounted KQ to add more weight to flush.

So i dont mind a fold or call in this spot due to odds, however you will see a flush alot. Will it be more that 3 out of 4 times?

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

So did the study group die? There is no longer a sticky at the top of the forum and I see no discussion of day 8 yet... I think the Equity and Maximization discussions would be very useful and SPR as well. Lets not let this die uNL!

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

I actually think that this range is the most important, it hasn't really had much input though. The equity chapter seemed quite straight forward and Maximization obviously relies on the range. So it's a shame that this chapter hasn't been covered very thoughtfully.

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

I really hope this gets going again. I thoroughly enjoyed the book and I feel that range is quite important. I was really hoping to get some help on creating effective SPR's when at a 6max table. I find myself using the REM process much more effectively which is nice but I'd really like to work on the SPR concept. (once the REM section is done obviously)

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

we're still here. a ton going on and Sunny's been on a cruise. E/M, commmitment threshold and SPR still to come. dunno who unstickied the sticky.

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

[ QUOTE ]
we're still here. a ton going on and Sunny's been on a cruise. E/M, commmitment threshold and SPR still to come. dunno who unstickied the sticky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would a mod be resticky the thread?

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
we're still here. a ton going on and Sunny's been on a cruise. E/M, commmitment threshold and SPR still to come. dunno who unstickied the sticky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would a mod be resticky the thread?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

Why is this not stickied?

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

Sticky...? hello?

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

Maybe someone can use that alert modifier thingy...I can never find that link.

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

[ QUOTE ]

Tight range:
Flush (9s8s will do for pokerstove, a flush is a flush and we have no redraw anyway so its fine)


[/ QUOTE ]

Newbie, I like your idea here, but I think that letting 9s8s stand in for all possible flushes in the pokerstove analysis is a big mistake. He would obviously play all flushes pretty much the same way, and there are a large number of other flushes he could have. Therefore a bigger part of both the tight range and the optimistic range will be flushes, and your equity calculations will shift accordingly.

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

Bump for sticky.

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

bump for continued strategy talk, not sticky...

Re: Whats his range?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since I spoke up I'll try one . . .


A dry one- Vill is 44/13/1.35 over 136 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($24.50)
Hero ($37.75)
SB ($34.60)
BB ($49.85)
UTG ($16)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.10) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Assign a range.

I know this is a sad starter, but I searched my database(which made me sad- I suck, good thing others suck more) for others and had a hard time finding good ones. Probably because im tired.

Ret

[/ QUOTE ]

his range here is pretty wide and you will narrow his range when u bet again on the turn. AGAIN aba o rgalfond i forgot which one once said that villains range changes when the turn card is dealt.

Re: PNL Study Group Day 7: The REM Process \"Intro\" and \"R is for Range
 

Let's add some substance (albeit derived from a small sample).

A) Range analysis (using Holdem Manager and Excel) based on:
1 Sample of hands played by "winning" players during August.
2 Specifically, those players whose pre-flop raising frequency is &gt;12.7% and &lt;= 15.1% (percentage range represents mid 30% percentile).
3 Hands all involved 6 players playing $1-$2 no-limit at 6-max tables located at one particular site.

B) Estimated Range Distribution for Big Blind Position
1 Pre Flop Raise (7%, VPIP 14%)
45%.........88+
40%.........AJ+
11%.........KJ+
4%..........other

2 Re-raise (5.3%)
50%.........99+
42%.........AQ+
5%..........KQ
3%..........other

3 Cold Call (11.3%)
25%.........88-22
24%.........AJs-A2s
21%.........J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, JT-76o
=70%
12%.........KJs+, KQo
8%..........AQ-ATo
4%..........JJ-99
7%..........other

C) Usage
1 Analysis repeated as more hands come in (and this helps to embed into memory).
2 Starting point where players fitting profile unknown.
3 Ranges individualised as players fitting profile become known.

D) Note
1 Sample size for this profile is 30 "winning" players (minimum number of hands for each player is 1,000).
2 Analysis carried out for other positions, and for upper/lower 35% percentiles.
3 Not claiming calculations are error free, nor analysis devoid of improvement.

D) Finally
Point being made is you do not have to rely on your own experience.