Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
 

Keep in mind the best singers don't always last. Gedeon had a much better voice that both Kevin and Bucky but was booted last night.

Last year, Scott Savol stuck around week after week as support poured in for various reasons (some sites tried to garner votes for the worst contestant, others kept voting for Scott to spite Simon).

My point is that just because someone is a clearly a better singer than another contestant does not mean they will last longer than that contestant. This is the key to making money on this show and the fact that many who bet ignore.

My main concern about someone like Elliot is that he will not garner enough support to outlast some of the more charasmatic singers like Kellie and Paris.

FWIW I think the final 2 are Taylor and Katherine with McPhee being your next American Idol. Chris is certainly a factor, and is the favorite going into the final 12, but there are reasons to doubt he will win this competition.

My 2 cents.

Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
 

I don't know why anyone has mentioned Paris yet. I believe she and Mandisa has the best female voices, but Paris will outlast Mandisa. Not to be a jerk, but Mandisa is too "big" to make it to the final 3. Paris has the personality, likeability, and great voice, and she will continue to get better each week.

Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
 

Ok, I just bet 2 units on Chris +315, Elliot +900 and Katharine +600, I also put 1 unit on Paris at +900 as I agree that she has a good voice and personality and an outside shot to win. It will be better for her if Mandisa is eliminated sooner rather then later.

Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
 

Ultimately I believe Paris is too young and immature to win the whole thing. She's going to make a good run though.

Paris is also significantly hurt by her (as of yet) inability to distinguish herself from the other african-american female vocalists. You've got three good black female singers, all of whom really sound pretty similar (very talented vocally one and all). One who won't make the top four just because of her weight, and Paris and Lisa Tucker are going to split significant portions of the vote until one of the two is elminated.

If say Lisa Tucker and Mandisa both get bounced early then I think Paris has a shot at the top four. But if Paris, Mandisa and Lisa Tucker all make the top seven or eight they're probably going to get bounced pretty sequentually (in my opinion).

Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
 

Performify,

You are a legend...

Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol
 

Don't feel bad, Perf. My wife has never let us miss an episode. If you ever want to reminisce about the good ol' days of Nikko Smith, let us know... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I just took Bucky to get knocked out this week at +302. We think that he, Melissa, and Kevin are ~ equally likely, but Bucky has the least chance to sing Stevie Wonder well, and the best odds.

Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
 

Which sportsbook are you getting these lines?

Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
 

How about this line:

Who will last longer? (same elimination day=push)
405 Lisa Tucker -198
406 Paris Bennett +180

I think Paris EASILY lasts longer than Lisa. Am I missing something??

Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
 

Lisa is way more polished, with much more significant stage experience, and I think that's why she's favored.

So far, Paris has certainly beaten her. Question will be if either can distinguish themselves from each other, as they're both pretty similar vocally. Paris has the edge in personality and showmanship (so far) and Lisa should have the edge in poise and experience.

I'm not touching this line, personally. But I can see where it looks intriguing.

background on Lisa Tucker:

[ QUOTE ]

Before she went in to her American Idol audition, it was revealed that Lisa Tucker was named as one of Variety Magazine’s Top Ten Kids To Watch. In January and February of 2003, Lisa Tucker competed on Star Search at only 13 years of age. She advanced all the way to the finals of the Junior Singers division, only to lose to a 10 year old named Tiffany Evans.

Lisa Tucker was also the original “Young Nala” in Disney’s Los Angeles production of “The Lion King"


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: i\'m embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American I
 

How much do you think the producers and the judges of this show influence the outcome?

The past winners have covered every major genre except for rock. Will the judges try to coax the public into supporting the rock singer (Chris Daughtry)? So far this season, they have let in more "rockers" than they have in the past, probably due to the success of Bo Bice last year. So if indeed the producers have a major interest in who wins, we should see Chris Daughtry cruising through this competition.

Also, it would be interesting to see the demographics of the people calling in to vote on this show.