Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 

*** FLOP *** [8c Qh 9c]
Hero bets $3
Villain raises to $10.45, and is all in
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero calls $7.45
Villain shows [6s 6h]
Hero shows [Tc Td]
*** TURN *** [8c Qh 9c] [5s]
*** RIVER *** [8c Qh 9c 5s] [4s]
Villain shows a pair of Sixes
Hero shows a pair of Tens
Hero wins the pot ($23.90) with a pair of Tens
Villain is sitting out

The point of this post was to show that people dont always have monsters. You have to seriously evaluate a villains hand over a wide possible range and not just say that "hes never bluffing with underpairs" or something along those lines.

Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 

I really think it's *very tough to just put somebody on a hand like you did, an underpair. I honestly would not expect to be ahead when this is made. While you DO have 60% equity, this all changes when he pushes back at you.

I see this happening mainly with a pair and straight draw, like QJ, or even J9 (it's possible).

Vs 9/10 opponents I don't expect to necessarily have the best hand.


I think this hand was very results-oriented because I've done some similar plays and "good calls" if you like to call them that, but I just see myself as making a decent call and being lucky... if you were shown QJ or even Q10, I don't think you would be too surprised, since I know shortstacks love to push with top pair alllll the time.

Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 

The entire point of this post was to show that this was not a results oriented call. After putting villain on a reasonable pushing range, most of which has me beat, I believe that I have demonstrated decent enough equity to make the call given the pot odds.

Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 

I think Hebel's right in this, primarily because of the stack sizes. Shorties range still contains enough draws even after the 3bet to makes this a call given the pot odds to equity. Its really not results oriented either, its more just a nice example of estimating your equity in a pot and then comparing it to the pot odds.

Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop, we can assume that 1010 is ahead of a not very good players range. Lets assign him a minraising a range of 22+, k10+, q10+ and A8+. This is a simplistic range, and a loose villains range could easily be much wider or tighter. But against this one, 1010 has 61% equity. So a pf reraise is in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is flawed thinking. You can't base your equity on his current range, you have to base it on the range he will call your 3bet with. If he only calls 3-bets with AA, then you should never 3bet for value, even though you have 61% equity vs his raising range.

Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 

Hmmm I dont see how you can rag on my hand so much and then justify calling all your money off in this spot.

Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop, we can assume that 1010 is ahead of a not very good players range. Lets assign him a minraising a range of 22+, k10+, q10+ and A8+. This is a simplistic range, and a loose villains range could easily be much wider or tighter. But against this one, 1010 has 61% equity. So a pf reraise is in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is flawed thinking. You can't base your equity on his current range, you have to base it on the range he will call your 3bet with. If he only calls 3-bets with AA, then you should never 3bet for value, even though you have 61% equity vs his raising range.

[/ QUOTE ]

He tightens villains range once he smooth calls the 3bet.. throughout the entire rest of the post he continually tightens the range of villain and bases his equity on the range relative to the newest information. You can disagree with the ranges he assigned to villain but its tough to say he is basing his equity on his initial raising range.... cause he clearly isn't.


When villain smooth calls, I think it is safe to eliminate KK/AA from his range, as a bad villain would probably just shove. So lets tighten his range slightly to 22-QQ,K10+, and A8+. Against this range, our 10s still have 61% equity after the flop:

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
59.55% 1.14% 60.69% ( TcTs )
38.17% 1.14% 39.31% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )

Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 

3bet to a proper size oop plzkthnx

Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 

I dont think once he shoves that we can honestly include the full range that everyone is putting him on. Sure he could be bluffing here but I think we see a Q here very often....too often infact to make a call profitable here. I dont think you can weigh his entire range equally. Sure the lower pocket pairs and A8 and A9 are in his range but I dont think that can be weighed as heavily as QT plus and the hand range that was assigned to the villian didnt include two pair hands and straight draw hands. He is most likely not a great player I dont think that 89 8q 9q and draws like t7 and 67 are too far out of his range. I dont think you would have posted this hand if you had lost.

Re: Street by street analysis of a marginal hand
 

In my opinion, you are ahead in these situations more often than not to make always calling EV+. That being said, here is a hand that does not support that and very similar to your situation......

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $31.15
CO: $42
Button: $27.80
SB: $7.90
hero: $24.25

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $2.25</font>, SB calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB is all-in $5.65</font>, hero calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($15.8, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $15.8)


River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($15.8, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $15.8)


Results:
Final pot: $15.8
<font color="#ffffff">SB showed Ts Qs</font>
<font color="#ffffff">hero showed Jc Jh</font>