Re: Three barrels?
 

I dont raise the flop, I dont bet the turn, I dont bet the river

Re: Three barrels?
 

I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise???

Re: Three barrels?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise???

[/ QUOTE ]
Indeed. There are two reasons to raise the flop, FE or taking a free card.

This flop hits a 3-betting range pretty hard. A lot of the time you'll get called down, and a lot of the time you'll get reraised forcing you to pay the max for your draw. You have very little FE and the risk of getting 3-bet is high which makes a free card play too risky. Free card plays are seldom worth it HU anyways.

On top of that you don't know how many of your outs are good. K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] could be bad for you and half your outs could be drawing to a split.

Just call and hope you hit.

Re: Three barrels?
 

I don't think the flop raise is that bad if we believe he's folding a pocket pair smaller than the board.

Assuming 44+,A6s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (probably wider) he'll have 44-99 about 20% of the time.

Our hot-and-cold equity in this flop is 30%, lets assume we win 25% of the time and 0BB implied odds (due to flop 3-bets with better hands obviously, he will rarely try to c/r the turn wich will be a disaster), and he's folding 44-99 to a flop raise + turn bet.

The pot will be 4BB (discounting 0,5BB rake) and we invest 2BB in our line. I assume he always peel the flop.

EV = 0,20*4BB + 0,80*(0.25*4BB + 0.75*(-2BB)) = 0.80 - 0.40 = 0.40BB

Enough overlay for our semibluff IMO, but if conditions change it could be a close play (if I made the math correctly :P)

I wouldn't 3-barrel the river. If we assume he has TT+,A6s+,A9o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (taking out 44-99)we have 0% equity and I don't think he's folding weak pairs enough. I'll give up.

P.S. Yeah, first post. Long time lurker [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Three barrels?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise???

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop raise cant be bad. Come on

22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99 will all fold a good portion of the time

Thats 45 combos!!

With the OESD and possible pair outs vs KJ and KT Hero doesnt need to get a fold very often for it to be +EV. Pot is 8 SB when villain bets and hero would be calling anyway so make that 10 SB that he is paying 1 more bet to win. Of course villain will make it 3 or force hero to bet again on the turn but still.

I'd guess that if villain folds as little as 10% here then the semibluff raise is good. With all those combos of low pp's that should be more than feasible


I'd say that not raising this flop is bad.

Re: Three barrels?
 

oink,
how many combos 3-bet?

Re: Three barrels?
 

[ QUOTE ]
oink,
how many combos 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Quite a few.

But now when AK 3-bet we still have about 27% eq and are only loosing half a SB

AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8s, A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, KQo, KQs, AA, JJ, TT.

Havent counted but I'd say thats on the wrong side of 100 combos.


Writing this I realize that the low pp's that fold will prolly give up on the turn or river anyway

Hmm. I take back what I said

No reason to pop the flop if he c/f turn with 77

Re: Three barrels?
 

I think he's probably bet/folding 44-99 in the turn after 3-betting preflop. People just 2-barrel a lot when they are PF 3-bettors and there are some gutshots Kx Qx that we may have.

So we're semibluffing/bluffing any turn/river blank if villian checks, to fold that PPs? I'm worried about Villian thinking that c/c'ing with them in the river might be good to catch some bluffs in a nice pot.

I think I'm still raising the flop, but what Oink said makes me think it's closer than I thought.