Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

Good replies so far.

jlocdog: if you look at each "point" individually, the line makes no sense at all. but if you look at all of them together, i think it makes sense. sum is greater than all the parts...know what i mean?

chitown: i agree that i should have FE vs one pr hands. i would fold alot of 1 pr hands anyway. and it is a semibluff in essence obv.

goldfish: i disagree that I will NEVER get called by worse here. it is rare for sure but it can and will happen.

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

[ QUOTE ]
To assume we have fold equity we really need some sort of history that proves he can fold TPTK type hands. put simply, unknowns dont fold TPTK to this action ever.

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That was my first thought - obviously we're trying to get him to lay down a better Ace, but is the kind of player who's capable of that?

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

No one ever folds TPTK here but even if they fold AJ and AT we should be happy amirite?

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

Just call. Semibluffing is useful when you aren't drawing to the nuts, you have fold equity, and/or you are unlikely to get paid when you hit. Here, you have no fold equity, you're drawing to the nuts, and since it is backdoor you are very likely to get paid. The only advantage of your push is a very slight chance to fold AJ, and you will never get bluffed on the river. Its not worth pushing.

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

i usually would hate this. but i think u can fold out better hands because it looks like the straight draw just got there. more or less turning a pair into a bluff. it's a tricky play, but if it's for a bluff, i think it's ok

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

[ QUOTE ]
A few thoughts:

1) I am ahead here a decent % of the time.
2) I have a LITTLE fold equity vs TPBK hands.
3) I have ~ 28% equity when called by better hands**.
4) I COULD get called by worse (not likely at all but possible).

When I "add" all of that together it comes out +EV in my mind.

Is my logic true or false?

**Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,112 games 0.063 secs 33,523 games/sec

Board: Ah 8s 5c 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.125% 28.13% 00.00% 594 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 71.875% 71.88% 00.00% 1518 0.00 { 88, 55, AJs+, A9s-A8s, A5s, AJo+, A9o-A8o, A5o }

[/ QUOTE ]

wow. if this is your thought process then pushing is terrible.

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

who cares about the straight draw?

Re: 200nl: TP turns FD, I CRAI.
 

[ QUOTE ]
wow. if this is your thought process then pushing is terrible.

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so you say the play is ok but then say because i didn't think about it right that it is bad? and if i considered the "straight draw" that got there then it would be good?????

i gotta say i think most of your posts are usually right on but r u serious?