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- Small Stakes (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=41)

- - Quick quiz (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=551917)

he's calling with mid-high flush draws, some mid pairs, a few straight draws maybe a top pair here or there and even an overpair once or twice. our equity has to be about 75% cause a good chunk of his range is drawing to 2 or fewer outs.

With A9 I guess we're closer to flipping cause lots of the flush draws and half of the straight draws also have two overs.

A) J9o, T9o, T8o, 87o, 77, 66, 55, 33, 22, Axcc, KTcc+, QTcc+, SC clubs, JTo, 76o, A9o.

Plus all the monsters, TT+, sets and 2prs. But, I'd discount them some because he'll re-raise TT+ quite a bit pre and will raise the flop with monster a lot of the time as well.

Because of this, I'd think A9 would have similar equity.

Also, because I feel people peel so light on these type boards, I double barrel them a lot with or without a made hand.

A) A9, A8, 9T, TJ, TT, JJ, 44, 88, 99, many Ax and connecting club possibilities. I think with QQ, KK or the other AA the typical player will typically have reraised preflop or led out or check-raised on flop with 2 clubs on board. With 89 I'd also usually expect either a bet or check-raise on flop. Sets are probably strong enough for a simple check-call even with 2 clubs on board.

B) Against entire range I'm probably 60% favorite. This is a calculation I would never normally make because I'm getting to see the turn card which will obviously alter the figure.

C) With A9, I'm probably about 50/50.

D) With AA, I am ahead of almost everything in my range except a set. I am 90% against TT, JJ, A9 or A8. I'm 80% against 9T and 75% against TJ(not clubs). I'm 65% against flush draws with no pairs or straight draws. Flush draws with other possibilities(pair or straight draw) seem like the most likely holding since there are so many variations possible. A few of these would be favored against me and the rest I'd be only a very slight favorite against. I'd say 50% of the hands I'm against are these, so 50/50 there. I'd say another 45% are the hands I mentioned above where on average, I'm about 75/25. The other 5% of the time I'm up against a set and am a 9-1 dog. 0.5(0.5)+0.45(0.75)+0.05(0.1) = 0.25+0.3375+0.005 = 59%. I did use a calculator for this, but my initial impulse was 60%. I'm not going to break it down for A9 but I'm now also a dog against TT and JJ, I'm even money with A9 and not as big a favorite against any flush draw with overcards to the 9 or to TJ. I'm also now drawing almost dead to a set but this doesn't factor in much since I was drawing slim anyway. I'd estimate my total chances of winning with A9 around 50%.

Sorry for hijack, whats the deal with all these "LP" avatars?

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A) what is a typical range that villain will check/call a bet with ?

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QJ, JT, J9, T9, T8, 98, 87, 76, 99-44, A9, A8, Axcc, KQcc, QTcc, KJcc, KTcc, 56cc, Kxcc (obviously, some of these are raising some % of the time)

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B) what is your equity against that range? (No pokerstove!)

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Id guess around 73% when he just calls

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C) Now you have A9 on the same flop. What is your equity ?

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hmmm, hes less likely to have a 9x hand now, and now many of his unpaired draw hands have an overcard or 2, I also have less equity against the hands he has that are beating me. Id say it prolly drops to like 65%, but it also means I wont get as much value on the turn since im more likely to play pot control on lots of cards.

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Since we couldn't use pokerstove for this quiz, list at least 2 factors that you used to conclude on an equity number.

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estimation of the most likely hands he has via estimating hand combos, and the outs those hands have vs me, and multiplied by 4 for his approximate equity, then just took the complement. Adjusted up or down slightly based on how I thought he would play the hands that beat me, or the hands that had more outs than what the mean hands had.

edit: I just stoved it, I pretty much nailed it with AA for my estimation (got 71%) , but the A9o plummeted my equity much more than I thought it would, it fell to 58% .

ok let me add a few more hands then

A)
99,88,44,89s : 12 hands- 10% equity
56c,AKc,QJc,TJc,67c : 5 hands- 50%
TJs, 67s (suit<>club): 6 hands - 65%
JJ+, A9s: 21 hands (ignoring AA) - 90%

B) total equity:
My answer: 60% equity, see below for "details"

I think this is equivalent to

29 hands with 50% equity, 6 hands with 65, 9 hands with 90%

or

29 hands with 50%, 15 hands with 80% (should be 30-15 if we add the other AA)

or

2 hands 50%, 1 hand 80%

My final answer: 60% equity

C) With A9, you have 18 more hands in the 10% group. I think the final answer would be around 35%, but I'm doing this quickly (I'd say 2/3 of hands we have globally a 50% equity, 1/3 about 10%)

D) number of hands in a given group of hands, equity against that group

Now let's see if my answers are ridiculous. BTW it took me a while to compute this, I wouldn't do that at the table.

Edit: results in white vs a
JJ+,99-88,44,AcKc,A9s,QcJc,JTs,98s,76s,6c5c range

 AA: 61%, A9: 28% (A9s=34%, A9o=26%)
not too bad I guess

A)
TJs, 67s,
56cc, AXcc, QJcc, KJcc, KQcc, KTcc, QTcc
TT, 9Xs, A8s, 77, 66, 55,

B) umm rough estimate? i suck at this... maybe ~67% vs the range i gave? im obv expcting the avg player to raise sets and 2 pair on flop

edit - this was like a 90sec post so my range could be off... and obv my equity estimate could be way off

ok I just realized the question was check-call, when I thought it was "go all in with" (i.e. if we bet/3bet etc). So my range sucks a bit.

im assuming ave tag

77-55,T9s,98s,87s
80%
80%