Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
 

he has a full house

44 or 99

i fold and its not close imo

Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
 

I don't think we should shove (I agree with terp on why there's a difference between calling and shoving), it's close between call and fold, leaning slightly towards fold.

Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
 

[ QUOTE ]
he has a full house

44 or 99

i fold and its not close imo

[/ QUOTE ]


Folding is extremely weak and you'll get runover at 2/4 if you do that here.

Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
 

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im pretty sure his betting range = calling range except for a really small amount of the time where he's bluffing. which is pretty much never imo

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If you think this is true it's a fold, 99/55/44/33>>>3x imo. There's 2 combos of Axs, how many limp/call 3x utg? There's 10 combos of FHs/quads, all of them likely to play this way. He's def more likely to overbet a FH on the river.

Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he has a full house

44 or 99

i fold and its not close imo

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Folding is extremely weak and you'll get runover at 2/4 if you do that here.

[/ QUOTE ]
This statement means nothing. As usual.

Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he has a full house

44 or 99

i fold and its not close imo

[/ QUOTE ]


Folding is extremely weak and you'll get runover at 2/4 if you do that here.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT, once the highly advanced 2/4 limp/calling regs figure out that you're folding the 10th nuts to an overbet in reasonably small pots, they'll start doing it every time they read you for less than the 9th nuts.

Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
 

[ QUOTE ]
im pretty sure his betting range = calling range except for a really small amount of the time where he's bluffing. which is pretty much never imo

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Why can't he have some A3 hand, missed the turn c/r and now overbets/fold the river? Do you think he's not betting or not folding?

Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
 

i dont think he expects you to fold, that said he prolly views your hand as a marginal 2 pair hand at best and could be doing this with worse. I dont think villain can have that many 3s and couple of those, maybe ~4 combos, also have a FH here. nor do i think he can have 99, but even 5s full is possible. agree with nick royale that the overbet is much more likely to be a FH than 67 and worse. it's only 4 handed so your range for calling should be a little wider. I would think it's about neutural EV to call here, maybe youll lose slightly, and I would never shove.

also, timing tells can be important, when donks insta bet big on river it's usually a missed turn c/r.

Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
 

I think its a fold, but I wouldnt fault you for calling.

Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he has a full house

44 or 99

i fold and its not close imo

[/ QUOTE ]


Folding is extremely weak and you'll get runover at 2/4 if you do that here.

[/ QUOTE ]
This statement means nothing. As usual.

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