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-   -   pay off? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=547499)

MitchL 11-16-2007 06:59 AM

Re: pay off?
 
Yeah I dont think we win here ever, but the curiosity would kill me. Whatever, I am sure if it is a friend they will just tell you later.

vmacosta 11-16-2007 08:11 AM

Re: pay off?
 
KTs, QTs, and AQo all sound about right. {hands that you beat} don't.

Sailboats 11-16-2007 08:22 AM

Re: pay off?
 
QT is the only hand i can really put him on... i guess i have to see it... call.

ProfessorBen 11-16-2007 08:33 AM

Re: pay off?
 
Schneids always has you beat here. Tell him to go play 1k/2k and that'll you'll buy more action than normal so that'll he'll leave. +EV in so many ways.

You are ahead of exactly AK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img][img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] here which he is always 4-betting here preflop because it would be more fun to get HU with you. He is not bluffing into a bad player when it also looks like that you may also have AQ here.

Fold.

Schneids 11-16-2007 09:07 AM

Re: pay off?
 
You beat a bluffing 88 but the way you played your hand postflop should make it pretty obvious you have exactly AK or AQ so an 88 shouldn't ever be trying to bluff you (let alone the UTG player as well) so from that logically it should become a fold because AQ is much more likely than AK (in his hand range) both mathematically and due to the fact he didn't 4 bet preflop, so basically you're calling for a chop best case.

SNOWBALL 11-16-2007 09:16 AM

Re: pay off?
 
The only thing u beat is Asxs
Oh wait...

StrictlyStrategy 11-16-2007 09:19 AM

Re: pay off?
 
Raise the damn flop.

SNOWBALL 11-16-2007 09:23 AM

Re: pay off?
 
so why did you call the flop instead of raising?

ProfessorBen 11-16-2007 09:48 AM

Re: pay off?
 
Raising the flop here is terrible.

There are no outs we can clear up as BB is never folding KJ/AJ/QT here. The only hands better hands that we get to fold, TT/88, are already beat by the UTGs range. The other hands that we fold suffer from domination against our hand(AQ/AT/KQ) that we want to 1. Pad our flush draw equity for us and 2. Pay off if we spike an Ace, King or flush.

Also this flop gets 3-bet alot, meaning our equity is poor because villain has a redraw even if we hit our flush or pair.

Edit: I spoke with CSC and I don't think a flop raise is as bad as I originally make it out to be depending on just how spazzy UTG is. I still feel his range is strongly weighted towards Js, 9s, and other pairs he's never folding. If you assume those to be correct, a flop raise is terrible.

KitCloudkicker 11-16-2007 10:11 AM

Re: pay off?
 
[ QUOTE ]
so why would you raise the flop instead of calling?

[/ QUOTE ]


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