Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

Heh, no, not actually Gary Kubiak. KUBIAK is the projection system that Football Outsiders uses; they're a relatively new football performance analysis website.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

Campbell is solid...good bet.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

I think you're spot on about Campbell, and I think your bet is a good one for you. I also think you're underraing Eli though.

99,574 and counting

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

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KUBIAK really likes Campbell. I think you're in good shape, actually.

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It's not KUBIAK, it's the QB Projection System. But, yeah, it likes Campbell.

/nit

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

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What is KUBIAK? Gary?

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A statistical projection model of the type that you hate, if memory serves. Anyway, Campbell's college pedigree and the development history of previous, similar NFL QBs suggests that Campbell will be a good QB.

That said, I don't know if you're +EV on your bet. Even assuming Campbell will probably be better than Manning, a lot can happen in two and a half years, and Campbell doesn't have the bonus-baby mega-contract that forces the team to stick with him like Manning does.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

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Heh, no, not actually Gary Kubiak. KUBIAK is the projection system that Football Outsiders uses; they're a relatively new football performance analysis website.

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Well it is, obviously, named after Gary Kubiak. I don't think it doubles as an acronym like PECOTA.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

I don't watch a whole lot of NFC East, but I'd rather have Eli. By far.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

As for the actual bet, I would say that you're a solid favorite. First round QBs have to be pretty awful for their teams to give up on them - look at how long David Carr lasted, and Alex Smith is still starting. Campbell is a lot better than both of them. If he doesn't improve you could lose, but if he does improve, you're a lock to win/push the bet.

As for Campbell vs. Eli, I think Campbell will be better. Much better. Eli is basically the exact same quarterback he was in 2005 and 2006. There's no improvement going on there. If Campbell improves, he will end up way ahead of Eli. Hell, you can make the argument that he's already better than Eli. DPAR thinks so.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

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This bet is sweet.

Basically you get a free jersey, if you lose you get to wear a Vick or Pacman jersey, both are also sweet and get lots of cool reactions.

I say you win way over 50% of the time plus if you win you get alot more than what you risk if you lose. Free Jersey > wearing a dumb jersey.

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Thanks, it seems like a fun bet to me as well. But my buddy is not allowed to choose a Pacman Jones/O.J. Simpson/Mike Vick jersey.

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It's so ridiculous that Pacman Jones(who is just an [censored]) somehow managed to get grouped in with someone who drowns dogs and someone who killed two people.

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I don't want to hijack my own thread but....it's not ridiculous.

Re: My (admittedly stupid) Jason Campbell bet
 

So does anyone feel like telling me about KUBIAK? Specifically, how I can access it and why it likes Campbell, or what it says about him? Thanks much.