Re: 200nl: Overbet bluff in 3 bet pot.
 

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Against thinking player I like it. This line against bad players is a bad idea.

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What about vs a bad thinking player?

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they have these? or do u mean the ppl that can think...but only think that every card off the deck is the worst card ever, and that they run worse than everyone, and all other negative nancy thoughts?

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I mean that he is not a drooler or just playing his cards - he def thinks about hands at an advanced level and is capable of making plays, he just makes questionable decisions often.

Re: 200nl: Overbet bluff in 3 bet pot.
 

No, it is pretty bad. Just read again your own analysis on NoTurn.

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What do you think about it yourself? LOL

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I think it is ok but I should have bet more on the flop.

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Re: 200nl: Overbet bluff in 3 bet pot.
 

definitely sucks.

rr more pre btw. 25-27 is best.

I he probably calls any king, he may even talk himself into calling with worse, but most importantly, i think he has at least a K here too often for your play to be profitable.

If you want to shove as a bluff, shoving the turn is way way better, because you have outs, and because it looks stronger.

Re: 200nl: Overbet bluff in 3 bet pot.
 

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I think he needs a boat to call. Does he think that though?

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I think he would call with AK or better.

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I don't know many AK that wouldn't play back on the flop or check the turn.

Re: 200nl: Overbet bluff in 3 bet pot.
 

Is this a line you take with KK TT as part of a balanced approach?

He needs to be good 35% of the time or so - if he perceives you as frisky (which he probably does) he is likely to make a call with AK. I personally play AK exactly this way, looking to extract a river bet.

So what else is in his range that calls the flop but doesnt bet the turn? KQ? I probably would fold that here, but if thats not in his range, then do you really have to bet so big to fold out underpair type hands?

So nah - not too keen.

Re: 200nl: Overbet bluff in 3 bet pot.
 

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Is this a line you take with KK TT as part of a balanced approach?

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Vs him I would take this "whiffed crai" line with AK or better some of the time.

Re: 200nl: Overbet bluff in 3 bet pot.
 

Turn shove/big bet seems more consistent with big hands other than maybe KK IMO.

On river I would think he puts you on a monster/air type of range and is going to look you up pretty often

The bet sizing pre and on flop + missed c/r on turn +river shove just doesn't really add up to me.

I like the hands you post Mr Donk, they take me out of my element

Re: 200nl: Overbet bluff in 3 bet pot.
 

For those of you who don't like it, how -ev do you think it is?

If he calls 30% of the time its break even, so how much more than that do you think he calls?

Re: 200nl: Overbet bluff in 3 bet pot.
 

These are the plays I've been trying to stop myself making, you can begin to out think yourself and catch fancy play syndrome and start trying to pull these moves all too often. If you are going to do it, over-shoving means your bluff has to be successful such a great % of the time. I don't think there is massive difference in your fold equity between a near pot sized bet and an over shove, but it makes big difference in your EV on the play.

Re: 200nl: Overbet bluff in 3 bet pot.
 

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I think I would like this better if you had made your first bet on the turn rather than the flop.

Against NoTurns, I don't know if this is such a great idea in general. He seems the type to like making hero calls.

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Interesting play. I agree with this. I like the first bet on the turn.