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-   -   [x] Hate this spot. NL25. (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=545583)

da_fume 11-14-2007 11:47 AM

Re: [x] Hate this spot. NL25.
 
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So, now the board reads a Ten high str8 and my read of villain at the time was some kind of overpair. What to do? Easy fold given that i'm receiving 1.4 to 1?

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FYP

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More like 1.85 to 1.

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er... no. You win his bet exactly never. so 30/2:11 or 15:11 ~ 1.4:1. In fact, it's worse than 1.4:1.

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This is wrong, btw.

GiantBuddha 11-14-2007 01:16 PM

Re: [x] Hate this spot. NL25.
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, now the board reads a Ten high str8 and my read of villain at the time was some kind of overpair. What to do? Easy fold given that i'm receiving 1.4 to 1?

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[/ QUOTE ]

More like 1.85 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

er... no. You win his bet exactly never. so 30/2:11 or 15:11 ~ 1.4:1. In fact, it's worse than 1.4:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong, btw.

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Seriously, how are you getting 1.85 to 1? Am I losing my mind? Anyone?

Landlord79 11-14-2007 01:24 PM

Re: [x] Hate this spot. NL25.
 
Wow! I'm making huge errors in these spots! What's the formula here? I think I see that you're taking 1/2 the pot and dividing that by your call? Wow! I think I've just stumbled upon a major leak!

Can anyone elaborate on this further for me?

GiantBuddha 11-14-2007 01:28 PM

Re: [x] Hate this spot. NL25.
 
Bet = X
Pot (before villain bets) = Y

Pot odds to call to a split = Y/2 : X

Their bet goes in the pot, but you can never win that because your bet also goes in the pot (not to mention that both of these bets get raked). You both take your bets back, then take half of the pot. Calling for a three way split is obviously even worse.

GiantBuddha 11-14-2007 01:31 PM

Re: [x] Hate this spot. NL25.
 
Here's an extreme example with regard to the rake:

Villain has $50
Hero has $50

Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in BB.
Folded to villain in $.25 small blind, villain limps, hero checks.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero checks.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero checks.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain bets $49.50 (all-in), Hero folds.

da_fume 11-14-2007 01:33 PM

Re: [x] Hate this spot. NL25.
 
His money is still in the pot, you have to call ~11 to win ~20. I see what you mean by "You can't win his bet" but that has nothing to do with calculating pot odds, because when you look at it that way you are getting %100 back on your call if you split.

GiantBuddha 11-14-2007 01:47 PM

Re: [x] Hate this spot. NL25.
 
[ QUOTE ]
His money is still in the pot, you have to call ~11 to win ~20. I see what you mean by "You can't win his bet" but that has nothing to do with calculating pot odds, because when you look at it that way you are getting %100 back on your call if you split.

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That's what I thought you meant. This is definitely incorrect. There's $30 in the pot. Villain bets $11. The pot is now $41. You call. The pot is now $52. Hopefully you get half. That's $26. $26(your half) - $11(your investment) = $15(your return). You bet $11 to win $15. 1.4:1.

jmc999 11-14-2007 01:51 PM

Re: [x] Hate this spot. NL25.
 
[ QUOTE ]
His money is still in the pot, you have to call ~11 to win ~20. I see what you mean by "You can't win his bet" but that has nothing to do with calculating pot odds, because when you look at it that way you are getting %100 back on your call if you split.

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There's 30.10 in the pot. You're risking 11.15 to win 1/2 of the pot (because if he doesn't have a J, it's a chop).
Therefore, you're actually risking 11.15 to win 15.05 (minus rake). It's not 11.15 to win half of 41.25 because he gets 1/2 of your call as well (you counted his money into the pot but not your own -- a mistake because that gets chopped as well).

To make it crystal clear:
Pot is 30.10
He bets 11.15
You call 11.15
It's a chop pot
Total Pot = 52.4
You get 1/2 of the pot = 26.2
Your profit = 26.2 - 11.15 = 15.05
Your total risk = 15.05 : 11.15 = 1.349:1

da_fume 11-14-2007 01:51 PM

Re: [x] Hate this spot. NL25.
 
Yeah, I actually wasn't even following what I said because I was calculating as if you always get %100 back on your bet.

GiantBuddha 11-14-2007 01:53 PM

Re: [x] Hate this spot. NL25.
 
Thanks jmc. I think people make this mistake fairly often in potential chops, FWIW.


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