Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***
 

wong it ldo

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
wong it ldo

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Yeah, I really want to with Baltimore +2.5, but I'm not sure this site offers teasers, or if it does, I'm too stupid to figure it out.

And yes, I am dumb for betting on only one site. I never had "that thing that shall not be named" playing poker either.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I think Tenn wins 50% of the time, then I need Denver to win by 1 or 2 (I'm assuming the odds of winning by 1 are similar enough to winning by 2 for this), 3.28% of the time each for it to be breakeven. Anymore, and Ten +2 is a better line.

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This math is done in Sharp Sports Betting. Take a look at the section "NFL Money Line vs. Spread". +2 (-110) equates to a moneyline between +113 and +117. So you are right. +2 (-110) is the better line.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***
 

Stupidly put down a unit on Tenn +2.

I'm working on getting money to another book so I don't make stupid bets like this. I'm pretty sure this book doesn't offer teasers, otherwise I'd wong it. *sigh*

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***
 

for some reason this pick is whispering BSP to me.

The public (myself included) sees this game as:
Tennesse has played much better, and has a much bettor record
Tennessee is a running football team
Denver is the worst in the league vs the run
Vince Young just wins football games
etc

I really see Tennesee as an obvious/easy pick here, and infact put money on them, but I may be missing something. Something is keeping this line the way it is.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***
 

This line has moved 2 points...I still think a Tenn tease is in order however. The books have crushed the public for the most part this weekend, excluding NE. So I'm not too nervous about a game that has moved two points. This is strictly from a line movement perspective and nothing else.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***
 

[ QUOTE ]
for some reason this pick is whispering BSP to me.

The public (myself included) sees this game as:
Tennesse has played much better, and has a much bettor record
Tennessee is a running football team
Denver is the worst in the league vs the run
Vince Young just wins football games
etc

I really see Tennesee as an obvious/easy pick here, and infact put money on them, but I may be missing something. Something is keeping this line the way it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate my Tennessee pick. Hate it hate it hate it.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***
 

Haynesworth is the big question. Hate +2 or PK or whatever if he's out, great if he plays.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***
 

I mostly hate it because +2 is a terrible line regardless. I should just suck it up and put money on a site that allows teasers.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/19/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (TEN @ DEN)***
 

most likely someone in Vegas knows Haynesworth isn't playing and Selmon Young is going to have 150 yards...I'm taking Denver at -2

edit: i may be wrong here because it's now -1.5

maybe Haynesworth is playing and you can get it at pk by game time