Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

I just think we value bet a donk like this until we get an indication we're behind. This donk is calling that flop bet with JT, QT, KT, etc., along with gutshot straights along with assorted pairs.

I know it's only 100 hands but with an aggro factor of 4 he is raising this turn when we're beat. As is, we give him a chance to take it away from us on the turn with that horrible bet (which he doesn't do).

No possible way to ever consider folding to that turn bet.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

I may even block the river for $5ish to make sure I get value from JJ/QQ/AT--folding to any raise.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

[ QUOTE ]
We are asking for a bet. Betting the turn is bad IMO. I'd be more inclined to bet here with KcKs.

[ QUOTE ]
As played I dont hate your turn call but folding would also be fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wtf, Simple? For real? It's 1/3 pot and we have an overpair and we have the second nut flush draw.

The river is a call because a 30/10/4 sponges 55 on this board and Ace high on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im a little fuzzy after a long session so your right folding is pretty nitty but not terrible -EV IMO.

I play with a lot of LAGs (good and bad) live and one thing I know is that they make things tough for you on scary boards.
In particular OOP with an overpair.

One thing I dont see him doing is betting the turn and river with anything we beat here.

I think one of the biggest leaks I ever had was getting attached to overpairs in situations like this.
This one is borderline but if the villan was betting 3/4 pot on the turn Im outta there.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

One other thing I forgot to mention regarding why I think the river is a fold - bet sizing.

The turn bet does not want you to go away, I think its a made flush at the very least.
Also the river looks like a value bet as well, I think he bets more with a busted draw and as I said checks behind 1 pair hands.

Re: 25NL KK against a paired board
 

The turn bet could also be something like AhT for value/pricing. River could well be a value bet, but villain could well be making a "value bet" with that same AhT. I felt it was really marginal either way and against a passive villain I'd probably fold river.