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-   -   2nd pair, turned NFD ($100NLCASH Stars) (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=540003)

MasterLJ 11-07-2007 03:46 AM

Re: 2nd pair, turned NFD ($100NLCASH Stars)
 
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You have absolutely no FE here.

Given that he's never 2 barreled before, you are behind just about always here.

Fold.

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he picked up the nut flush draw on the turn, call > fold

I agree with everyone else who says bet flop.

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You don't have implied odds to call imo.

Calling here would be committing more than half your stack for a draw that's going to hit barely north of 1 in 4 times.

creedofhubris 11-07-2007 05:23 AM

Re: 2nd pair, turned NFD ($100NLCASH Stars)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have absolutely no FE here.

Given that he's never 2 barreled before, you are behind just about always here.

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

he picked up the nut flush draw on the turn, call > fold

I agree with everyone else who says bet flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have implied odds to call imo.

Calling here would be committing more than half your stack for a draw that's going to hit barely north of 1 in 4 times.

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Nut flush draw, one overcard, 2nd pair.

7 outs to the stone nuts, 2 outs to the nut flush, 2 outs to top trips, 3 outs to aces up, bet is less than the pot = I can't fold this

MasterLJ 11-07-2007 06:00 AM

Re: 2nd pair, turned NFD ($100NLCASH Stars)
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have absolutely no FE here.

Given that he's never 2 barreled before, you are behind just about always here.

Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

he picked up the nut flush draw on the turn, call > fold

I agree with everyone else who says bet flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have implied odds to call imo.

Calling here would be committing more than half your stack for a draw that's going to hit barely north of 1 in 4 times.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nut flush draw, one overcard, 2nd pair.

7 outs to the stone nuts, 2 outs to the nut flush, 2 outs to top trips, 3 outs to aces up, bet is less than the pot = I can't fold this

[/ QUOTE ]

You'd need to stack him every single time for this to be profitable. I'm counting 13 very clean outs + 1 non clean out (Th), I'll give you 14 and call it 3.2 to 1. He's giving you like 2.5 to 1 with you only having low $50 high $40's behind, he has to call nearly every time you hit.

I think it's pretty dang close given your pair outs are not good some part of the time and Th is not good all of the time.

In practice I think Hero will call a blankish river most of the time anyway due to having committed so much, making this further -EV.

Kalledrengen 11-07-2007 07:10 AM

Re: 2nd pair, turned NFD ($100NLCASH Stars)
 
With your description of villain I think check-raising on the turn is a mistake.
It really seems like he does have something he like, when double barraling in a pot you 3-bet PF. I think we have got to assume that he has a hand here.
You are getting 2,5 to 1 here and you have probably around 30% chance to win as a minimum so definitely call.

Against a range like this: (Can anyone give their opinion if this is a fair range of described villain?)
JJ-99,33,AT,KT,QJ,QT,JT,T9 <-- all both suitede and off suit

You are 27% underdog to win this pot against above range, but then we have to consider the posibility that he is bluffing and of course the posibility that he is betting the second best hand and you perhaps have him outkicked ect. If I add KJ (as the semi-bluff), K9 and Q9 to the above range you are already up to 48%, so I think we can assume we are around 35% to be fair against his range.

But you do still probably not have any fold equity so I would suggest a call here and hope you hit trips, two pair or the nut flush on the river and can extract some more out of him if you do.

Oh, and I'm not very experienced in giving villain ranges and such, so feel free to correct any flaws you think I have in my post.

Alibut 11-08-2007 10:11 PM

Re: 2nd pair, turned NFD ($100NLCASH Stars)
 
Thanks for comments.

Results: I pushed turn on auto-pilot, he had JJ and called quite quickly, obviously.

I'm still not convinced by leading the flop against a passive player who probably won't call worse, incidentally...I only had a hard decision on the turn because I "improved"

Also still not sure whether calling or folding turn is better, but I suppose it doesn't matter too much in EV one way or the other?

Kalledrengen, your hand range seems plausible to me - I think against average (less passive) hu players it would be wider?


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