Re: Whiffed AQ vs a maniac LAG.
 

If you expect him to have no hand here most of the time (after betting $10 on the flop) why don't you wait for middle pair or something?? Now you're completely dead vs. the 15% of his range that has hit.

Also, if you want the image of a looser, more aggressive player by showing down some bluffs, make it smaller bluffs. Why would you spew an entire stack when people will also notice you bluffing in a spot where it isn't going to cost you $50 if it fails.
And even better: you might try semi-bluffing some spots (maybe with slightly bad draws) as people won't notice you had 35% equity when you made your bet.

My general opinion is that you should make +EV plays in the hand itself, do not try to reason bad, spewy plays into +EV plays by considering future hands.
Save plays for image reasons for spots where you can choose between two lines and where it costs you very little EV.

Re: Whiffed AQ vs a maniac LAG.
 

matrix he just put you on a draw and called.

This hand is obviously terrible you bluff off your entire stack with AQ high only to get stacked by a pair of 4s. I'm sure you know this hand is bad. Just because villian plays awful doesn't mean you should do similar :P.

Re: Whiffed AQ vs a maniac LAG.
 

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Pushing him off an actual hand, and by actual hand I mean a pair of 2s or better, is a risky venture.


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He tanks and eventually calls with his A4cc (for a pair of 4s) and I miss my 3 outs.


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I hate that I was right. But I have to admit, Matrix, if I was at the table with you I would be shaking my head. I see people constantly try to bluff these guys. I don't get it. They'll call their whole stack off if they only have a gutshot... these type call with anything. I've seen these guys with 500bb stacks because people keep betting into them 3 streets with nothing thinking the guy's going to fold.

Here's a double barrel I made yesterday--
I raise in MP with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

a maniac minraises me from UTG. I call.

FLOP - A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

he now checks. I bet pot. He waits a long time, then calls. (don't ask me why, it doesn't feel like a slowplay... I sense weakness)

TURN 4x
he checks. I bet 2/3 pot. He thinks and calls.

River 3x
he checks. I seriously consider a third barrel. I know hes weak but I've given up..... I check. wait for it...

He turns over JQos. So, not only was JQos a hand worthy of reraising with... he put in about 40-50 bbs on a gutshot. You can't bluff someone who is too stupid to fold.

Re: Whiffed AQ vs a maniac LAG.
 

Your turn bet is nothing unless it's a thin vbet, you have ZERO (repeat, ZERO) FE here against a better hand from villain.

Re: Whiffed AQ vs a maniac LAG.
 

In a vacuum my big bluff hand vs a calling station any piece moran looks pretty dumb I am not arguing with that.

but what I am getting at is this...

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $62.10
SB: $92.05
BB: $124.53
UTG: $47.75
MP: $55.79
Hero (CO): $110.30

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, Hero calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($6.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4.75</font>, UTG calls $4.75, MP folds

Turn: ($16.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.50</font>, UTG calls $6.50

River: ($29.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $25</font>, UTG calls $25

Results: $79.25 Pot ($3 Rake)
UTG mucked Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Sixes) and LOST (-$38.25 NET)

in this hand villain was the guy that stacked the maniac - I've taken a chunk of his stack already and built the rest of it up by running over the nits. I'm running something like 35/27/5 at this point. Just raising in good spots and CBetting - I think I won one small SD.

This villain I have in my db as a regular 20/12/2 mcTAG or thereabouts.

I don't think there is anyway at all (perhaps I am wrong) that this guy calls off almost his whole stack with AQhigh here if I don't SD my huge bluff from earlier.

I DO think my bluff is +EV immediately or at least not hugely -EV immediately cos this maniac is the type to call with just a gs draw or Axhh which I usually have dominated.
OR he'll be the type that sees my serious aggro and eventually folds his A2. I do know for sure he's not thinking much.

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And even better: you might try semi-bluffing some spots (maybe with slightly bad draws) as people won't notice you had 35% equity when you made your bet.

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here's a rough guesstimate of a range.

basically any pair, any ace, any broadway, a bunch of gutshots and some sc's that made a pair.

Board: 2h 4h Td 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.712% 41.67% 01.04% 7756 193.50 { AsQc }
Hand 1: 57.288% 56.25% 01.04% 10469 193.50 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 86o+, 75o+, 64o+, 53o+ }

If this range is close to correct and he will call with all of it (and I have zero FE) there's a chunk of dead money in this pot already ...

Maybe my equity is way worse here and I am a 25/75 dog overall - (vs his actual 2 cards I am ~7/93 dog as it happened tho him having Ax and paired his kicker is about as bad as it'd get without me drawing dead).

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Wait until you have at least a pair, then start doing this.

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I can post sessions where I thought like that and missed every flop for 90 mins and got run over 1 preflop raise at a time. I did think a little before I raise his flop bet (honest) and I figured that if the turn bricked he might call down my planned turn bluff with a fd which would have been very +EV. Sometimes (and maybe I am off the wall and this is definitely not one of those times) there is a +EV move you can make without a pair.

Maybe after maniac is gone the table breaks and my golden image comes to nothing but if they sit a while and think that I too am a moran when in fact I pull a bluff like that ~once a week or so and almost always my bets mean what they say they are then I am setting myself up for good times.

If the table had split after this lag left and I had left as well I would probably have thought to myself "that was a terrible play - lets not do that again, back to the grind"

I destroyed this table of nits for 20 mins after my bluff went down so thought maybe this wasn't such a bad play after all.

Yes I agree that it's better it make big semi bluffs with hands that have solid equity values - but the cards don't always drop that way. I just realised that I was tired of sitting like a nit waiting for the one big hand to bust the maniac and being easy to play against and instead went and tried to make it happen, perhaps I should and could have made "better" bluffs, if that flop had been 24Q and not 24T I play it the same way and probably never post the hand.

I got lucky in that one way or another things worked out and I ended up booking a win. I am just wondering if in part I helped make my own luck.

Re: Whiffed AQ vs a maniac LAG.
 

Why waste your time bluffing this type of player? Seems like the exact opposite of what you should do to make $. You're overthinking this.