Re: QTo Small Blind.. Is this a fold or a desperate call
 

Pre-flop I think it’s marginal, considering you are out of position. I’d fold it. Otherwise, as played.

Unlike others, I think this is a pretty good flop; top pair, plus gutshot. On that draw-heavy board, of course you should bet.

Betting turn is brave, but correct. I wouldn't fold to a single bet, so I’d lead. Had there been any aggression back it’s an easy fold.

Given the turn action, I think leading river isn't that bad either (although against 2, check-call would probably have been better); the card would appear safe. Once it’s raised though I think you're beat. Still, I’d call given the pot size.

Re: QTo Small Blind.. Is this a fold or a desperate call
 

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Pre-flop I think it’s marginal, considering you are out of position. I’d fold it. Otherwise, as played.

Unlike others, I think this is a pretty good flop; top pair, plus gutshot. On that draw-heavy board, of course you should bet.

Betting turn is brave, but correct. I wouldn't fold to a single bet, so I’d lead. Had there been any aggression back it’s an easy fold.

Given the turn action, I think leading river isn't that bad either (although against 2, check-call would probably have been better); the card would appear safe. Once it’s raised though I think you're beat. Still, I’d call given the pot size.

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Wow, I disagree with basically everything you said. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm not sure preflop if you want to fold the first time or after it's raised. But completing the SB with two broadway is very standard. Once it's raised we actually have GOOD position because we get to see what everybody does before we have to make a decision.

We don't have a gutshot on the flop. But the fact that the there are a lot of draws doesn't mean we should bet to 'charge' them or whatever. None of the draws is folding to one bet so we can't protect our hand. Checking with the intention of raising a late position better would make sense though.

You really think we are good on the turn that often considering all the calls we got on the flop and then a terrible card fell on the turn? You probably should be folding to a single bet though when you check. We will rarely be good and are not getting enough odds to call for our gutshot. If the action goes hero checks, bet, call, call then continuing is marginal.

So you want to lead the river becuase you are assuming if somebody had a straight they would have popped the turn? Interesting but too many people slowplay in general and most players would be scared to raise the ignorent straight.

I'm actually a very big supporter on calling one bet on the river in large pots but there just isn't anything at all that we can legitimately beat and this isn't the type of situation where plays are apt to bluff.

Re: QTo Small Blind.. Is this a fold or a desperate call
 

Hi rhayder,

To figure out the answer, start by thinking about game theory. What's the default play here?

To answer that, we need to know 2 things.

1. the odds opponent is receiving on his bluff. In this case, 9:2.

2. your range. You haven't told us this, but I think it's safe to assume that QT is in fact the worst hand you could hold given the action in this hand.


Now, the default play... well, you want to fold often enough that you don't get value-raised to death, while folding rarely enough that your opponent can't bluff everything. The way you do that is by making your calling frequency equal to his bluffing odds. He's risking 2 bets to win 9, so you need to call 9 times for every 2 you fold. Put another way, you should call 82% of the time you reach this situation and fold 18%.

Since QT is the worst hand you can hold in this situation, you can safely fold it and not be exploited. A much more interesting question is what the weakest hand you should call is... to answer that, we'd need to get more specific about your range when you bet the river.

Now that THAT is done, we can talk about deviating from the default play to take advantage of your opponent. As I suspect many people will point out, river bluff raises are typically very rare. So you normally would exploit your opponent by folding even more then normal. This again suggests that folding is the play.

Muck it.

good luck.
Eric

Re: QTo Small Blind.. Is this a fold or a desperate call
 

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brave, but correct.

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no offense but this is funny