Two Plus Two Newer Archives - NL25 How toi keep Tag in

Grunch.

Another one of those depends type hands... so let's talk about it.

You said your range for him after the flop was AJ+, ATs+, 98s.

Given that range it is a clear call on the river:

Board: Ad 8s 5d 8c Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.833% 33.33% 12.50% 8 3.00 { ATs+, 98s, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 54.167% 41.67% 12.50% 10 3.00 { AhKc }

But, what you didn't indicate is what your range for him is on the river... As that range narrows, so does your equity.

You didn't give any stats on the villian, so I'm going to take my stereotypical tag UTG raising range that I work with : 22-AA, AK,AQ,AJ,KQs.

Now the fun begins... how does your villian perceive you? How does he perceive the flop texture based on your holdings? Would he c-bet this flop against YOU?

Probably. A high, with only a flush draw and one legitimate straight draw, pretty good texture.

So after the flop we still haven't narrowed his range. He could be holding any of the cards in his PFR range.

The turn is a good card for him if doesn't think you call with 2nd pair (which he probably doesn't if you've been playing solid). If he thinks you are a solid, he also knows he probably got raised if you had a set (your most likely holding). So now he pretty much has to put you on an ace.

Unless he's seen you check-call with flush draws (which I hope you aren't doing) he has no reason to think you are on a draw.

That being said, in order to fire a 2nd barrel, he needs to be pretty happy with his ace. He may not put you on AK since you didn't re-raise and it would be expected from a solid player.

So in order to fire the 2nd barrel he probably need one of the following: AK, AQ, AA, 88, 78s, 98s, and maybe KdQd (though I don't seem him building a big pot with a flush draw on a paired board OOP). I think AJ might check for pot control, because he's only beating AT or A9, neither of which a likely holdings for you provided that you've been playing solid.

I think if he has total air, he checks the turn unless you've been floating him a lot with small PP's. I'll assume you haven't been floating and proceed.

Let stove the turn range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.947% 63.16% 15.79% 12 3.00 { AA, 88, AQs+, KdQd, 98s, 87s, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 21.053% 05.26% 15.79% 1 3.00 { AhKc }

Not looking so good.

Firing on the river is even tougher from his perspective. If he had something really weak like AJ, you aren't calling much if he pegs you solid. If he pegs you as an Ax junkie, different story, but I'll assume again he sees you as solid.

If he bets this river he's either expecting a fold from a flush draw that didn't make it (but we said he didn't put you on one, because you don't chase flushes). So that leaves you with an occasional 98x, a PP that made a boat, or a good AK or AQ or AJ.

If he has AJ he's splitting with AJ, and losing to your other possible Aces. If he has AQ he's winning against your AJ and AK. If he has AK, he's chopping with AK, losing to AQ, and winning over AJ. It's a wash, so he can technically bet all 3 if he thinks AJ is in your range. I think he checks AJ though, and only bets out AK/AQ here, in which case you are chopping or losing.

All the other hands in his range have you beat except for a busted flush draw. So let's stove his final river range. I've also included his busted draw as part of his range, although we'd really like to weight it, because he won't bet his busted draw every time he has it.

Board: Ad 8s 5d 8c Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.947% 63.16% 15.79% 12 3.00 { AA, 88, AQs+, KdQd, 98s, 87s, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 21.053% 05.26% 15.79% 1 3.00 { AhKc }

Not good.

I think if he can 3-barrel on this board, you are losing a lot. It's not as bad as it looks though, since your break-even percentage (BEP) is 0.31, but it is still a losing proposition. As least you can take some notes if you call.

I go back to the initial paragraph. It depends. What can your opponent realistically 3-barrel here against you based on his image of you? Find that range, stove it versus your BEP.

I think most tags would have trouble 3-barreling a lot of one pair hands against another solid player.

Now if you flip this on its head and you've been running hot, but not showing down and appear some laggro monkey, then his range widens as he believe he's betting for value. If he's seen you chasing flush draws or calling down lightly with PP's, then suddenly we can open his range up quite a bit... even just by adding in a "value bet" with AJ, we suddenly get...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.556% 44.44% 11.11% 12 3.00 { AA, 88, AJs+, KdQd, 98s, 87s, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 44.444% 33.33% 11.11% 9 3.00 { AhKc }

Now the river is an easy call.

I hope the hand range vs equity vs image and the "what can he triple barrel against *me*" thoughts make sense. What is his betting range vs his perceived range of your hand strength.

Please note, if you've been 3-betting him a lot (light or otherwise) you did want to 3-bet him here because he's less likely to put you on a "good" 3-bet hand.

And finally, because he does raise with any pocket pair (probably), re-raising cuts down (or eliminates) his implied odds of chasing a set, and therefore you set him up for a mistake. It also let's you take control of the hand (in position). You no longer have to hit to win. You can fire at almost *any* flop, and you keep pressure on him.

For all the reasons just listed, I still prefer to re-raise with this solid hand then just call, but either play is fine as long as you have a solid read on his ranges and betting patterns per street.

My NL25 cents.

Disclaimers: As usual I've made a lot of assumptions about ranges based on limited notes from OP, but the thinking applied should help solve this type of scenario (until you are leveled, at which point it becomes even more fun). No warranties implied or otherwise. Batteries not included.