Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
 

Florida State @ Virginia Tech -4
UConn @ Cincinnati -4.5
Texas Tech @ Texas -4? (no idea here)
Virginia -1 @ Miami
Florida -5.5 @ South Carolina (even this may be too much IMO)
Boston College -3.5 @ Maryland
Kansas -6 @ Oklahoma State

Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
 

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Auburn @ Georgia -3

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Expand plz?

Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
 

Arkansas -3 @ Tennessee

I think you've got the wrong team getting the points in the Ark/Ten game. Arkansas's much better than the wins and losses would indicate (#12 in the predictor) and they match up well with a Tennessee team can't run well or defend the run well.

Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Arkansas -3 @ Tennessee

I think you've got the wrong team getting the points in the Ark/Ten game. Arkansas's much better than the wins and losses would indicate (#12 in the predictor) and they match up well with a Tennessee team can't run well or defend the run well.

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You very well could be right...both of these teams have looked real good and real bad at times. Doesn't seem right to me to make Arkansas the fave in Knoxville though...I dunno. Tennessee is going to score plenty of points - Arkansas secondary is pretty bad. SC basically matched them score for score after digging a hole in the beginning.

Edit: I'll be fairly shocked if Arkansas opens as a fave, much less -3.

Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
 

Also Sagarin has Auburn 6 better than UGA at a neutral, although UGA clearly playing better in the Moreno Era.

Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Auburn @ Georgia -3

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Expand plz?

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I'm just guessing the HFA will be the difference in the line. The game is a PK in my mind as well and I will be on Auburn +3 if it comes out that way.

Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
 

Looks like Sagarin predictor has Florida 14ish better than So. Carolina at a neutral.

I don't want to pull a tlt, but South Carolina has been much more competitive than expected with Florida each of the last 2 seasons, and now the overall talent is as close as ever. You know this is the game Spurrier wants more than any other. The game is at South Carolina. The Gamecocks finally have their offense running on all cylinders after the failed Chris Smelley experiment (which I really never understood - I think Spurrier let his ego get in the way). This is not the same offense that managed a meager 6 at home against Vandy (who has a better defense than UF btw). Florida's defense is as bad as their offense is good, especially the secondary. Florida is gonna have to score a ton of points to cover 7ish (although they easily could). South Carolina has a good pass defense but is very soft against the run - Tebow at less than 100% plays into this well - Florida has virtually no north-south running game with the RB's.

I expect to be playing SC here - and if it's 7.5 or more it'll be a max play.

Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
 

Air Force/Notre Dame anyone?
USC/Cal?

Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
 

Looks like Air Force is basically Navy with a defense. Sagarin has AF 12 better than ND at a neutral, as well as 7.5 better than Navy.

They actually lost to Navy, at Navy, despite outgaining them by about 100 yards.

I'm gonna say AF -3.5 is a correct line, although who knows, massive ND public might cause it to open at ND -40, and then Naj will be egging me to put my whole bankroll on it, then I'll be sweating lucky ND conversions/gifts from the officials etc. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: Week 11 NCAA Early Lines
 

As bad as Cal has been I don't think they can be favored here.

USC -3.5 looks about right, although it could open higher.