Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results.

Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411
Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8)
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6

Equity when called*:
*The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot.

Board: 2c 5d 3h
Dead:

Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s }

Let X = probability villain folds.

EV of Shove is neutral when:
0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8)
X = -5%.

So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers:
X = 0%, EV = 17.91
X = 10%, EV = 57.22
X = 20%, EV = 96.53

So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero!

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Im fine with this. At worst this is marginally -EV, Id prob play it the same.

FYI I think the above range is a little too tight also given stats. This certainly isnt terrible and I challenge others to provide evidence otherwise.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results.

Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411
Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8)
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6

Equity when called*:
*The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot.

Board: 2c 5d 3h
Dead:

Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s }

Let X = probability villain folds.

EV of Shove is neutral when:
0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8)
X = -5%.

So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers:
X = 0%, EV = 17.91
X = 10%, EV = 57.22
X = 20%, EV = 96.53

So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero!

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow. Thanks for you effort and for the info :P.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

No problem. Found it weird when some were saying this is terrible, because the pot is so big already and villains don't have full stacks.

So now that we're essentially pot-committed, is bet/call or just straight shoving better than ch/r AI?

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Looks ok to me, not sure why everyone hates it. Fish will sometimes do stupid things, and he certainly folds sometimes.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Yeah I think shoving or folding are the only plays. I think his hand looks like a big pair, but if you can get him to fold like one out of five times on this board (or if he can pull this bs with KQ or worse) than this is a pretty easy shove.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

His bet sizing looks like he just put you on AK and is trying to induce a float or a shove... pretty sure you're about to get owned here.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

I like a flop shove here. You may have 10 outs that are good, and bigger stacked opponent only has pot sized bet left.

Does anyone else like flop shove?

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

uh...

a play CAN be +EV and terrible AT THE SAME TIME

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Wtf at this being terrible. Villain has a hand here like close to never and I dont want to let him suckout. Raising here is totally standard although we shouldn`t shove really.