Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
 

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I shove and he instacalls with his J9s and it holds up.

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3bet him more often now, as his UTG range is a bit wider than your average 18/12.

Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
 

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Shrug. Annoying but if you're gonna fold there you might as well fold everything but aces preflop and open shove those to be sure you get it in good.

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this strat seems pretty unexploitable imo

Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
 

He did this same sort of move on me the other day with A-k! and got it in when I shoved. I 3 bet him pre and he led into me on the flop I pushed for like 75$ more and he called with A high. Just from playing that session with hime the other night he seemed like a decent player but I saw him make moves where he got allot of his stack into the pot being an aggro tard then making it correct for him to call when he was obviously behind. I had him at like 22/16 or aome thing over like 5-700 hands

Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
 

A fold here is a terrible, terrible play!

Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
 

J9s would be in the beginning of the 3rd tier of his standard deviation for QTIP's hand sample if he didn't tighten up any UTG. Really a strange play.

If I'm calc'ing Standard Deviation correctly. I've been playing around with it today.

Here's my math if anyone wants to check it

SD = SQRT(1326-160*(160/200)) = 35

with 1326 being different hands you can be dealt
160 being 12% of that
and 200 being the number of hands QTIP had datamined on him.

1 SD = 160 + or - 35 hands
2SD = 160 + or - 70 hands?
3SD = 160 + or - 105 hands

as pokerstove rates hands j9s is 17.6% or 234 hands, so in the beginning of the the 3rd SD

Bottomset and some you other guys seem to understand this stuff pretty well so maybe he can correct me if I'm wrong. It's been more than 10 years since I cracked my statistics book.

Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
 

standard cooler, more important question, does anyone like a call on the 3 bet?

Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
 

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standard cooler, more important question, does anyone like a call on the 3 bet?

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I strongly considered that. The reason I didn't here is there are quite a few scare cards where he might not get it in on the turn.

I see what you're saying tho in that if I push he may fold a big pp. Whereas, if I call, he probably just pushes it into me on a blank turn.

Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
 

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does anyone like a call on the 3 bet?

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Villain already has HALF his stack in.

Just get it in.

Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
 

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fold.

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never vs him

Re: 400: Sometimes I Just Say \"Oh Well\"
 

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fold.

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never vs anyone for 100BB

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