Re: Clev to win AFCN
 

just short baltimore

Re: Clev to win AFCN
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd set the Browns line at:
-3, ev, +8, +3, -2, +3, ev, -3, +5, -5

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FWIW I think you're grossly underestimating the Browns (I'll take Clev +8 for 3u plz). I'd set those lines more like:
-4, -1, +6, +1, -4, +1, -2, -4, +4, -6

And no one said it's "likely" that the Browns will go 7-3 and/or win the division (with how weak this division is, 11-5 will win it for sure and 10-6 will probably be good enough). All I'm saying is there's a big edge between how likely the Browns are to win and the +1215 I got it at.

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just short baltimore

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Already noted I think there's value there.

- C -

Re: Clev to win AFCN
 

Is a line being off 2pts (albeit a critical 2pts from 8 to 6) is cause for a 3unit play?

I need to read all those sports betting books....

Re: Clev to win AFCN
 

I get it, though. You're just really high on cleveland. Even so, add up the odds you just listed and you're still under 6 more wins. Your season total is just under 9. Remember that having lost once to Pitt, and playing the second game IN pitt, Cle is likely to lose that tie-breaker. So you actually have to finish with a one game lead over Pitt (obv an upset in pitt might, MIGHT, change this).

Here's some lines for Pitt which you may disagree with too:
Compared to Pitt:
@Cin, Balt, Clev, @NYJ, Mia, Cin, @NE, Jax, @StL, @Balt

-3.5, -6, -7, -4, -9, -8, +7, -3, -7, -2
or
65%, 70%, 75%, 67%, 78%, 75%, 25%, 60%, 75%, 55%
or
6.5 wins.

so that's 10.5-5.5 with tiebreaker vs. 8.5-7.5. Remember, though, those are your numbers that say that cleveland is supposed to finish 8.5-7.5. The rest of the world would predict closer to 7.5-9.5. With your numbers it is closer to a bet, though still not a great bet. Also, I haven't factored in Balt which has a similiar chance as Cle with their extra win, but 3 games in which they should win a total of about .75 of them (and lose 2.25).

Re: Clev to win AFCN
 

you know, a better way of making this bet might just to bet the money line when Cle plays at Pitt. You kinda NEED that win anyway.

Re: Clev to win AFCN
 

Hey PSU,

You can get this for +2500 now on bookmaker. I'm sure getting more than twice the payout you were assuming before would push this bet towards a positive expectation.

Card

Re: Clev to win AFCN
 

[ QUOTE ]
you know, a better way of making this bet might just to bet the money line when Cle plays at Pitt. You kinda NEED that win anyway.

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Your lines for Pittsburgh look WAY off on first look. -7 @NE?!?!?

Re: Clev to win AFCN
 

I think the PIT lines look reasonable except for the NE one.

Right now I would expect NE to be considered a 7 point fave on a neutral-field so at NE this could be pushing a 10 point line I think.

Re: Clev to win AFCN
 

CSC - Interesting points, but I'm a little backwards on something. You're acting as though I've bet a line like +400 or +500 or something.

I think I need to start by asking a simple question, cause I don't know that you've said it yet. How likely do you think the Browns are to win the AFCN this year? Do you think +1215 is an EV0 or EV- bet?

At that rate, even a 9% shot is hugely EV+ (18% ROI if I did the calc right?). I put the Clev range between 9% and 13% to win, conservatively saying 10%. Do you think I'm way off on that assessment?

I'll also note I don't agree with your Pitt lines at all. Just to start, you have them -6 vs. Balt in Pitt and -2 @ Balt which makes no sense. Additionally I don't think they'll get 7 points vs. Clev if Clev is 5-3 coming to Pitt. Perhaps if 4-4, but that also seems a tad high (and assumes Pitt is 6-2 which isn't a lock).

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You can get this for +2500 now on bookmaker.

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If I had access to it or money in it, I'd be on that line for sure.

- C -

Re: Clev to win AFCN
 

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I think the PIT lines look reasonable except for the NE one.

Right now I would expect NE to be considered a 7 point fave on a neutral-field so at NE this could be pushing a 10 point line I think.

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I don't like the @Jets -9 line either. Would Pitt be -15 at home?