Re: Do I fold here? Plo50 6max
 

OK so the call is no good.
Donkey and especially Chucky, thank you for taking the time helping me out here...

Re: Do I fold here? Plo50 6max
 

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One bit of advice. On the turn either bet hard or dont bet at all. 3 dollar bets into 7 dollar pots will induce raises from good players who sense weakness.

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But many players are not good :P

You are also assuming that the other player has a good read on the OP and is willing to put a lot of chips in the middle with a losing hand simply because he 'smelled' weakness. If the villain is a good player, he also would know that many players cannot fold a set in this situation and he would be throwing money away without a straight or top set.

I would fold on the turn without a better read. It smells like a wrap hit his straight.

Re: Do I fold here? Plo50 6max
 

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I would fold on the turn without a better read.

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I have a hard time making up that read... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think chucky's advice was more for my game in general, not for this hand... Besides that I think you are right, villain would not make this move without a strong hand...

Re: Do I fold here? Plo50 6max
 

I think the fold is correct, but I like a re-raise.
Much more fun, and if you donk out with your mini flush you have implied tilt equity.
I guess your fold equity plus pot odds nearly offset the bad shape you are in if called,
but who cares, donk it in and rofl if you hit quads.

I think the aggro table image plus the fact you can make dodgy moves will get you paid more if you hit hands later,
From the tone of the post you are a bit rocky so this should get you more action.

Re: Do I fold here? Plo50 6max
 

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I think the fold is correct, but I like a re-raise.
Much more fun, and if you donk out with your mini flush you have implied tilt equity.
I guess your fold equity plus pot odds nearly offset the bad shape you are in if called,
but who cares, donk it in and rofl if you hit quads.

I think the aggro table image plus the fact you can make dodgy moves will get you paid more if you hit hands later,
From the tone of the post you are a bit rocky so this should get you more action.

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I think a reraise is just spew. He will likely either have you crushed or he will fold with an inferior hand (and you cannot show your donkishness unless you show your hand afterward).

Also, I don't know how many at the PLO50 level are paying very close attention to the rockiness of a player.

Re: Do I fold here? Plo50 6max
 

Well, I guess there was some good advice in this thread. In that the weak-lead on the turn is yucky. You should either check or bet the pot here as you don't want to encourage people to raise you, and you also don't want to let them draw cheaply when you're ahead.

The justification for folding the turn's pretty bad though. This in particular stuck out to me:

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The problem is that even if 1/3 the time your opponent makes this move with bare straight (Which I think is too high). hero has 18.5/40 equity or 47% equity. The remaining 2/3 hero has 10/40 or 25% equity. 1/3*.47 = .16+ (2/3*.25)= .32 which is not enough to call. Given that hero would have to call all non board pairing flushes and villian would fold when board pairs, reverse implied odds are in effect.

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Where do we get off saying villain only has the bare straight 1/3 of the time? He's a 44/5/3, not a weak-passive nit. If he has any straight, it's pretty much a given that he's raising. Also, if he does have a redraw, it's just as likely to be spades as hearts. I think if we hit hearts on the river, they're good well over half of the time. Also, you have to figure in the possiblity of a semi-bluff due to our weak bet too. A lot of players will shut down on the river here if a turn bluff's unsuccessful and they have to risk their whole stack to push someone off of a hand.

Also, there's no reason that hearts should put us in a reverse implied odds situation on the river. I guess if by "hero would have to call all non board pairing flushes", you're implying that you'd c/c if the flush hits, then yes that would be a reverse implied odds situation. If you push when the flush hits though, it's going to be very hard for villain to fold a straight, especially given the fact that it looks like we have a made hand and there are other draws present. I'd say that we get called by a worse hand at least as often as we run into a bigger flush when he push the river. A board pair's going to be a little harder to get action on and a thinking player would probably fold, but given that villain's PF stats are a little on the fishy side, I think you'll get looked up at least occasionally.

All things considered, your average equity on the turn is somewhere around 40% (accounting for an occasional semibluff that gives up to us on the river) and if you play the river properly, you should have a positive implied odds situation there, so I think you should definitely call the turn raise as played. Next time though, you should either check or bet the pot.

Re: Do I fold here? Plo50 6max
 

Wow I never got so many responses on a hand, I'm very happy. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
It's hard for me to add anything more except how I felt while playin.
So as I got raised I felt that he has the str and the spade redraw too. I was still thinking about shoving but then folded because as BadBenOni said I AM rocky and play scared money.
But as recommended next time I will check or bet big and I guess it will make further decisions easier...