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-   -   AQs UTG(El Foldio) (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=525214)

mntndrew 10-17-2007 06:58 PM

Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)
 
You're proposing a strategy that tries to make opponents bluff more against me, making them harder to read. Regardless of the merits of this laydown, I can't see how that's a good thing.

If I were to ever show down a hand that I didn't have to (because I folded or because a better hand has been shown), I'd much rather show down a weak hand I'd called down with that had some odds of winning to possibly indicate that I'll call down with anything.

Frond 10-17-2007 07:24 PM

Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)
 
We all know or should know this and have read or heard it time and again: "The worst mistake you can make in limit poker is folding a winner on the river. When in doubt, call"

With her I felt fine at the time about folding this one. Very much read specific and not merely just odds-math specific. I can certainly see arguments for just calling one more though so I can understand some that may utterly hate this fold here. Believe me, I am a firm believer in calling one more in a big pot on the end when I'm not sure. Then why call a turn bet? Well, one more card to come to spike and A or Q obv. If I do boat up on the river there is a good chance of getting some more bets out of her. If that happens pot will now be more like 11-13 bets.

Now the question: Did I feel fine when she showed me her cards?????????

jesse8888 10-17-2007 07:30 PM

Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)
 
You're keeping us in suspense man. What did she have? AxKs?

Frond 10-17-2007 07:31 PM

Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)
 
Oh and I never(hard to never in poker)show my hands. I think that if I did show here what I was laying down I would get walked all over by some of the players. Nor do I sigh disgustingly when I fold like in this situation. Just fold and go onto the next hand

Grease 10-17-2007 08:17 PM

Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)
 
You're not leaving us with much wiggle room here.

If you have a great read on her, nice read and good fold. But I'd need a really, really good read to lay this hand down.

I mean, the question is: How good is your read?

We can't answer that, only you can.

Man of Means 10-17-2007 08:29 PM

Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)
 
An idea is that because you can't call down every time and you can't fold every time, you have to pick some spots to call down.

This is a good spot to call turn and river against a habitual checkraiser because you have outs and may actually be in the lead. A8 or 85 could very well be her "draw hand". And she may have chosen to slowplay a flopped two pair.
Since you beat every other two pair, call the river. If you had a ROCK SOLID 100% read then fold the turn, you don't have the odds for a 4-outer -- (9+2):1 isn't good enough.

Frond 10-17-2007 08:34 PM

Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)
 
Alrighty then. She showed me 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for the flush on the turn. I said nice hand to her. One of those times where you know for certain they have it for whatever reason. She had a pattern of always playing these hands this way every freakin time. Any str8 or any flush, She would always go for the C/R and since she never deviated from this pattern the fold was easier than playing against someone else, getting great odds to call the river. Not really a sick read on my part but I had no doubt that I was beat. I hung in to spike an A or Q [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]. She also had a habit of always showing her uncalled winning hands so she was very predictable. Even though I played with her several times before, she didn't seem to recall who I was.

I always wear a different hat each session

Aces McGee 10-17-2007 08:47 PM

Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)
 
Hey Frond

Why'd you post this hand?

-McGee

PokerJans 10-17-2007 11:31 PM

Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)
 
When I first saw the title of this post I was like OMGs you folded AQs utg? wtf lol

Onto the actual hand - I fold when I am playing well. Calling is probably a very very small mistake but it really doesn't matter that much in the long run IMO. It might hurt you long term win rate by like .01BB/100

bernie 10-18-2007 12:01 AM

Re: AQs UTG(El Foldio)
 
[ QUOTE ]
If I do boat up on the river there is a good chance of getting some more bets out of her. If that happens pot will now be more like 11-13 bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty optimistic.

There's about 9 bets in when you make the call. If you boat up, this type of player isn't going nuts on the river. In fact, she'll probably check/call on the paired board.

Don't count the money you have yet to put in as part of the pot. It's a 9 bet pot to you and if you hit, you'll likely only get one more. So, instead of 11-13, it's more like 10-11. Pretty close.

An interesting situation might be if the 4th flush card hits and she checks to you on the river. Bet?

b


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