Re: Semibluff spot
 

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I think a J is too strong to just call down here for the same reason that this is a bad semibluffing spot with our FD - we get looked up by any hand with SD value

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Well it's about balancing

if i call flop and turn and that always means i'm folding to 1 more barrel because i have hearts then he WILL 3 barrel profitably

Though i use your rationale to fastplay a king here like 99% of the time.

Also, IME, calling down here in position will slow this guy down a bit.

this is a tricky spot against a guy like me who will 3-bet pf, bet flop and c/c turn

Re: Semibluff spot
 

but I'm going to be calling down with AT AQ AXhh 22-TT. hands with SD value that aren't strong enough to raise

you don't think that is enough to balance?

Re: Semibluff spot
 

what hands are you c/c turn with as the pf3br here? I would c/c a hand like AQ AT AXhh probably other aces but that's about it. underPPs I would bet again because villain may make a FTOP incorrect fold with an overcard that has hidden outs

Re: Semibluff spot
 

my line is vs. "Villain is unknown. This is the second time in a row that I opened OTB and he 3 bet from the sb."

Really depends on how the game is playing TBH. The past few days the games i've been in (this is at 10/20 even) have been SO aggro that i can't set the pace, so i like to take this line in that game.

Re: Semibluff spot
 

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anyone else think raising the turn > raising flop?

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what extra hands are we folding out that would call down to a flop raise? Ax without a gutshot, maybe PPs but maybe not

we def have more FE, but also less equity vs the hands that will call us down so it is a trade off

not sure what line is more +ev but it would be a pretty simple calculation I think if we make some assumptions about river play. I don't think we should be betting the river UI, I can't see a better hand that gets there ever folding

Re: Semibluff spot
 

another bonus to turn vs. flop is we gain an extra .5bb

Re: Semibluff spot
 

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anyone else think raising the turn > raising flop?

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what extra hands are we folding out that would call down to a flop raise? Ax without a gutshot, maybe PPs but maybe not

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This whole discussion hinges on the SD-ness of villain. If he won't fold PP to either, then raising the flop is best, because A) free card possibly B) pretty sure you have an EQ edge vs. TT and below.

If he'll fold then raise the turn LDO (also raising the turn is better against someone who will rebluff something like T9 or 87hh on the turn, as he reads a flop raise as a semi-bluff/cheap showdown play of some sort).

Re: Semibluff spot
 

I take a shot for raise the turn vs call the turn. I do the hypothesis the turn is a brick like a 2.

The range of sb (maybe a little tight given the read) is

55+ A4s+ A7o+ KTs+ KJo+ QJs

If Sb fold the turn, with the rake we win around 6BB.

Sb fold on the turn A9-A4 without FD. We have almost 20% of chance to hit a flush. If we hit the flush on the river Sb c/c with these hands. So if Sb fold to a raise on the turn we win 6x0.8-1x0.2=4.6BB.

A9 15 combos
A8 15 combos
A7 15 combos
A6s 3 combos
A5s 3 combos
A4s 3 combos
= 54 combos

Against A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T-4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I think we lose 3BB with a flush on the river with a call on the turn. We lose 2BB on the river and 1BB on the turn with a raise on the turn if we hit. So we lose just 0.8BB more with a raise on the turn. It is 6 combos.

I do the (optimistic) hypothesis with a raise on the turn we lose 0.6 BB against the other hands which are calling (we win 1BB more if we hit our flush). These hands are

AT 15 combos
AJ 12 combos
AQ 12 combos
AA 6 combos
QQ 3 combos
TT 6 combos
99 6 combos
88 6 combos
77 6 combos
66 6 combos
55 3 combos
Qjs 3 combos
=84 combos

The following hands raise and but we can win if we hit our flush, so we loose 1.2BB with

AK 8 combos
KQ 6 combos
KTs 2 combos
= 16 combos

We are drawing dead against

KK 1 combo
JJ 3 combos
KJ 6 combos
=10 combos
We loose 2BB against these hands.

There is 170 combos and we win by raising the turn

(54*4.6-6*0.8-84*0.6-16*1.2-10*2)/170=0.9BB.

Against this range, we can suppose our FE equity is 0 if we raise the flop. So I think the line raise the flop-bet the turn is worse than call the flop and the turn.

If we can take the free card on the turn with a raise on the flop we win just 0.3 BB. But we loose around 0.7BB if there is 3bet on the flop. It is proly close with the line call the flop and the turn.

Re: Semibluff spot
 

I've got a thing about flushes and paired boards, even I get a bit passive here, I know were HU but it can become an almighty spew if villan turns a F/H and you hit.

If he continues to raise you either tighten up then 3 bet or leave.

Re: Semibluff spot
 

Try to win without a showdown. Play it the same way you'd play a king or jack. No way you can hand over every pot that you both miss to a tard like this.