Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
 

I think Plax would average somewhere in between. In any event, the line has "corrected" to over 4.5/-140 so the edge is close to kaput.

One more and I think that's it:

Frank Gore under 4.5 yards on first rushing attempt at -120 for 1 unit (Bodog). Gore's current performance is certainly out of whack, but beyond that, the Ravens have held Rudi Johnson, Thomas Jones, and Jamal Lewis to 2.8 yards per carry this year. Edgerrin averaged over 5 but over a much smaller sample. Jonas Jennings is out, and Trent Dilfer poses no threat. I think the Ravens will begin the game with eight in the box and dare the 49ers to throw. There is enough edge for me to bet this for 2 units but I have no prior experience handicapping this kind of prop, so 1 unit will suffice.

I'm passing on Hasselbeck, which has moved down to 255.5/-130.

Good luck!

Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
 

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Bodog is releasing its lines as I type, so my picks will be on a rolling basis. I see one pick so far:

Dwayne Bowe under 70.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). The line is an over-reaction to his monster game last week, during which his 51-yard reception resulted from a fluke error. The Jaguars have one of the better pass defenses around, and Mathis is a zillion times the CB as Jammer. Plus, Kennison's return means fewer targets for Bowe. This is a big number to lay for a largely unproven rookie.

YTD: 8-12, -5.27 units

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Sick...Bowe ended with 70 yds. Looks like a winner, but only by a hair.

Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
 

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Sick...Bowe ended with 70 yds. Looks like a winner, but only by a hair.

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Sick indeed. For those not following, Bowe was at 35 yards in the final minute, but had a garbage-time 35-yard catch from the backup QB with 20 seconds left and the Chiefs down 17-0. He was then targeted on the next play, but the pass fell incomplete. I feel for those who took this bet at the lower line.

Gore's first run was 4 yards. The hook saves me twice today (though I would not have bet against Gore had the line been any lower than 4.5). Bodog has graded both as wins already.

Plexiglass had a slow start but with the Giants trailing, he pwned Revis after halftime. 3-0 so far, it's about freaking time.

Re: NFL Week 5 player props thread
 

Bah. Champ Bailey gets hurt, and Vincent Jackson proceeds to make two long catches after halftime. Peyton made me sweat for a while but the Colts managed to pull away and ate a ton of clock through Keith.

None of the SNF/MNF props look remotely appealing.

This week: 4-1, +2.34 units
YTD: 12-13, -2.93 units