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-   -   A situation.. (turn the nuts) (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=515964)

Leviathan101 10-05-2007 04:04 AM

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 
[ QUOTE ]

If board pairs (A/K) (6/46 ~13%) -
Again have to assume certain things. Lets you you're prepared to call an all in, because you'd be shoving for value if he bets out anyway and not much left behind. He leads out for $9, you shove, he calls 66% and folds 33%. On average you loose $49.5 66%, and make $22.75 33%. Average its a loss of $25.4


[/ QUOTE ]

If you have him on AK, set or bluff, pushing an A or King river is absolutely terrible. You should only call.

Generally I think you should be raising here. The odds of him actually firing 3 barrels is low and you have no reason NOT to push the turn before a scare card hurts your action.

yes you can justify a call, but that doesn't mean its good.

Nick C 10-05-2007 05:24 AM

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 
All right, I started a post and then abandoned it because, near completion, I realized I had made a fundamental mistake in the math. Hopefully I won't this time. But I am going to do a fair amount of rounding off.

Here's a scenario.

Let's say the pot will have $14 in it after our turn call, and there will be $18 effective stacks left behind.

Villain will have a set 40 percent. He'll never fold a set. However, he will check-call our $9 river bet on a J or T. If we raise the turn, he'll push. If the board pairs on the river, we'll just call his river bet.

Villain will have AK 40 percent and will play it the same way as the sets.

Villain will have JJ-55 20 percent. If we raise the turn, he'll fold immediately. If we call, he'll fire a third barrel on the river half of the time UI. If he makes a set on the river, he'll stack off. Occasionlly, he'll make a straight with his JJ or TT and we'll chop, but this will happen rarely enough that I'll basically ignore it, compensating by only giving him 1.5 set "out" on average instead of 1.7.

All right, if we call the turn, we win $25 on the hand versus his sets 28/44 of the time.

We win $16 versus his sets 6/44 of the time.

We lose $25 versus his sets 10/44 of the time.

We win $25 versus AK 28/44 of the time. (He's check-calling J's and T's, and we're just calling Q's and 4's.)

We win $16 versus AK 12/44 of the time.

We lose $16 versus AK 4/44 of the time.

10.63/22 of the time, we win $7 versus JJ-55.

10.63/22 of the time, we win $16 versus JJ-55.

0.75/22 of the time, we win $25 versus JJ-55.

This works out to about $14.88 that we're winning on average on the overall hand after calling the turn.


If we raise, we'll win $25 34/44 of the time versus sets, and we'll lose $25 10/44 of the time.

We'll win $25 40/44 of the time versus AK and lose $25 4/44.

We'll always (22/22) win $7 versus the JJ-55 bluffs.

This works out to about $14.43 on average for a turn raise.


So, in this scenario, it's close. The main reasons that just calling is slightly better are that Villain will 3-barrel bluff the river (and bluff big) with fairly high frequency and also that we have a very good idea what cards we should be scared of on the river. Also, he's a player that won't let our turn call bother him even though a straight is now possible.

But it's just one scenario. And there is some chance I did the math wrong [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

Still, I suspect the turn decision is in fact close. The main reason I favor a raise is that I'm sick of watching the instinctive and habitual slowplaying that goes on at NL25 and don't want to imitate my opponents without a good excuse [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

DaycareInferno 10-05-2007 05:42 AM

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 
um, i didnt read all of that stuff, but you have the nuts, on an action board, against an opponent that's trying to get money in. just raise.

CruS 10-05-2007 05:45 AM

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 
Good thinking Nick, that's pretty much what I wanted to see here. In practice, something close to what I described came up in a real hand and then I started discussing the hand w/ a friend of mine. Then we got into the scenario if we KNEW the opponents range so bad that we could ever justify a call here.

So a raise is obv the best choice here, I have the nuts and I want to get the money in vs his 2p / set.

Nick C 10-05-2007 06:15 AM

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
So a raise is obv the best choice here, I have the nuts and I want to get the money in vs his 2p / set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's obviously the best play if Villain is bluffing or bet-folding a fair amount of the time but might 3-barrel big if just called.

However, how often do people really 3-barrel into AKQ with just an underpair? It is kind of rare, isn't it?

Also, if somehow you knew that Villain had exactly AA-QQ and would be willing to play for stacks no matter what, the obvious play would be to call and then fold any board-pairing river. But that last situation is quite hypothetical.

CruS 10-05-2007 06:16 AM

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 
yeah. I think we are on the same track. Case closed.

Schiester 10-05-2007 06:28 AM

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 
[ QUOTE ]
Ok - lets look a little more in depth.

We estimate they have a set 33%, AK 33%, and bluffing 33%, fair enough?

We have one card to go, and we're weight up calling / raising.

No card can come and improve our hand. The following cards put us to a tough decision on the river, or beat us. Any A, any K, any Q, any 4. The following cards probably kill our action, any J, any T. Thats 18 cards that can come which we will not like, or beat us. Thats ~40% of the time we won't see a card we like. ~26% of the time it beats us, ~14% it kills our action. Let say for arguments sake he isn't going to bluff into a 4 card straight, and just give up, if its a blank he'll bluff.

The pot is currently is $9.85, lets say you call.

Pot becomes $13.75. River comes...

If its a blank (happens ~ 61%) He fires out a 2/3 of pot bet ($9). Lets say you shove then. 66% of the time he will call your shove (AK / Set), 33% of the time he will fold (bluff.) EV is 33% = $22.75, 66% = $49.5, so on average we get $40.

If its an action killer (6/46 ~ 13%)- He checks, we do a pot sized bet, he calls lets say because its so scary, 50% / 50% (which I think is a stretch, but). 50% we get a pot of $27.5, 50% we get a pot of $13.75, on average we get a pot of $20.60

If board pairs (A/K) (6/46 ~13%) -
Again have to assume certain things. Lets you you're prepared to call an all in, because you'd be shoving for value if he bets out anyway and not much left behind. He leads out for $9, you shove, he calls 66% and folds 33%. On average you loose $49.5 66%, and make $22.75 33%. Average its a loss of $25.4

Board pairs (non A/K) (6/46 ~ 13%)
Same assumptions. Leads out for $9, you shove. He calls lets say with 50% of the time with AK thinking its still good . Thats 33% call for a loss of $49.5, its a call 13.5% with AK for a gain of $49.5, and a fold 46.5% for a gain of $22.75, on average - $0.92 in the black.

What it means
61% we make $40, 13% we make $20.60, 13% we loose $25.40, 13% we make $0.92 - Our EV for calling is $23.88

Now shoving
Lets say he will call with AK and set, fold middle pair. In all cases (unless folds), pot will be $49.5

AK 33%
On average make $36.65

Set 33%
On average make $27.72

Fold 33%
Will make $9.85

We will make on average $24.75 from shoving.

We will make more on average from shoving then calling ($24.75 vs $23.88). I also think some of the calling numbers are a bit generous on the river. Probably a bigger difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wicked post!

Thanks heaps!

GSykes 10-05-2007 07:51 AM

Re: A situation.. (turn the nuts)
 
Nick C, I would really like to say you owned this thread

That is all


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