Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

when you see a line like Team A -2.5 should that sound off some warning bells? It seems to good to be true, like the books want us to take that line. I am avoiding the Philly and GB games as I think any of the four teams could win. If I do bet, I will give the home dogs 6 points however.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

my concern was that GB was -1

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm not concerned about GB. They just beat the Chargers and Min lost to the Lions. Wasn't GB also close to -2.5 against the Giants? Look how that turned out.

I'm probably gonna bet on Chicago now too since Griese is the starting QB

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm not sure you're getting my point

you bet at -2.5 when -1 was widely available

you just gave up a huge amount of edge

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I only have money on Bodog since I'm 18 so I take what Bodog gives me.

Edit: Also I'm not too worried about this game being close or else I wouldn't have made the bet.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I know a lot of people follow the "fade the public" theory here. Any guesses on what those games are? I like Min +1 and Atl +3.

Also Wonged Min and SF to +8.5 yesterday on Bodog.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm pretty sure GB will be the biggest public play this week.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
dear guys who can predict line movements_

I'm curious as to the chances of Houston/Atlanta moving off the 3
and Chicago/Det moving off 2.5

what do you see happening for both games?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Houston line was on -2.5 for a while (I got some). I don't think there is much chance for it to move off the 3 now that it's there. If anything it will hit -2.5 again because I think the sharps are on Atlanta at +3.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure GB will be the biggest public play this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Pitt too but that might be a later game so not sure if you just meant the biggest of the ones in this subset...

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know a lot of people follow the "fade the public" theory here. Any guesses on what those games are? I like Min +1 and Atl +3.

Also Wonged Min and SF to +8.5 yesterday on Bodog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice, I like the tease at those numbers. Maybe throw in the Giants at 2.5 teased 6. I agree with a6 sicilian in that an accurate spread for that game is 1-2.