Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call this preflop too, can't prove one way or another whether it's EV+/-.

[/ QUOTE ]

A little bit of math.

According to flopturnriver here we flop two pair, trips, boat, quads and straight with about 4.775% probability.

We flop an OESD with about 8% probability.

So with about 12.8% prob we will flop a monster or a draw to a monster. Correct me if I am wrong but isnt 12.8% about the same as 7:1 which is our preflop odds?

Assuming there is positive implied odds on flopping those hands it should be pretty easy to turn T8o into a profit here.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call this preflop too, can't prove one way or another whether it's EV+/-.

[/ QUOTE ]

A little bit of math.

According to flopturnriver here we flop two pair, trips, boat, quads and straight with about 4.775% probability.

We flop an OESD with about 8% probability.

So with about 12.8% prob we will flop a monster or a draw to a monster. Correct me if I am wrong but isnt 12.8% about the same as 7:1 which is our preflop odds?

Assuming there is positive implied odds on flopping those hands it should be pretty easy to turn T8o into a profit here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't just add 8% to 4.8%. the straight draw will complete only about 1/3 of the time. so of those 8% you'll win in 2.7% of cases and that's what you should add to 4.8%. in the remaining 5.3% you'll just lose more money. do the implied odds justify calling? i dunno.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call this preflop too, can't prove one way or another whether it's EV+/-.

[/ QUOTE ]

A little bit of math.

According to flopturnriver here we flop two pair, trips, boat, quads and straight with about 4.775% probability.

We flop an OESD with about 8% probability.

So with about 12.8% prob we will flop a monster or a draw to a monster. Correct me if I am wrong but isnt 12.8% about the same as 7:1 which is our preflop odds?

Assuming there is positive implied odds on flopping those hands it should be pretty easy to turn T8o into a profit here.

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't just add 8% to 4.8%. the straight draw will complete only about 1/3 of the time. so of those 8% you'll win in 2.7% of cases and that's what you should add to 4.8%. in the remaining 5.3% you'll just lose more money. do the implied odds justify calling? i dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I just assumed that the implied odds on flopping an OESD was about neutral. Dunno if they are..? In a 4-way pot it cant be far from..?

Re: Good river card
 

someone should just filter pt for putting money in the pot from the bb with T7o 98o 97o 87o 86o 76o 75o 65o

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
someone should just filter pt for putting money in the pot from the bb with T7o 98o 97o 87o 86o 76o 75o 65o

[/ QUOTE ]

unfortunately, you can't filter by the number of active opponents so most of those hands will probably be from BvB.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone should just filter pt for putting money in the pot from the bb with T7o 98o 97o 87o 86o 76o 75o 65o

[/ QUOTE ]

unfortunately, you can't filter by the number of active opponents so most of those hands will probably be from BvB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could probably pull this out of my database (custom), but it would take some time.

Re: Good river card
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
someone should just filter pt for putting money in the pot from the bb with T7o 98o 97o 87o 86o 76o 75o 65o

[/ QUOTE ]

unfortunately, you can't filter by the number of active opponents so most of those hands will probably be from BvB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Id also like to point out that even if you could filter these hands out, (By the way I have no idea whether you can do this or not cuz Im not very good at PT) We still need to factor in postion. Calling with 86o in the BB after someone raises and two people coldcall is a lot different than calling with this hand in the BB after two limpers and a raiser. The first scenario is much more favorable than the 2nd.

Re: Good river card
 

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.097% 18.85% 00.24% 2904821 37686.83 { 86o }
Hand 1: 21.106% 20.18% 00.93% 3109387 142586.50 { ATs-A8s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 18.555% 17.67% 00.88% 2722641 136259.00 { 88-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K8s, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo-A8o, KJo-K9o, Q9o+, J9o+ }
Hand 3: 41.242% 40.62% 00.62% 6259403 95236.67 { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }




I think these ranges are realistic.