Re: tough spot with AQ
 

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how often is this really a bluff?

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Never?

Maybe at 100/200+ there's some leveling going on where this can be a bluff, but at MSNL no one is going to bluff laying those odds.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

you guys arent being reasonable. if this is "never" a bluff, how often do you think 77/33 plays like this? "always"?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

what odds would you want before calling this?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

9:1?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

i would check the river

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how often is this really a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]
Never?

Maybe at 100/200+ there's some leveling going on where this can be a bluff, but at MSNL no one is going to bluff laying those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true for the most part, but I've seen it done at mid stakes so I wouldn't say never, but still not often enough for me to call this.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

is the EV of checking the river that much lower than betting it?

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
you guys arent being reasonable. if this is "never" a bluff, how often do you think 77/33 plays like this? "always"?

[/ QUOTE ]
def not always, he should be raising sets here some % of the time.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

[ QUOTE ]
is the EV of checking the river that much lower than betting it?

[/ QUOTE ]

no it's not, not without reads or meta. with some sort of reads or meta it could be much less EV than betting it, or it could be much more than betting it.

vs an unknown i would check it for sure.

Re: tough spot with AQ
 

i think an unknown has a worse ace way more than a missed draw. and i dont think hes bluffing his missed draw on this board like ever. id say c/c v small or c/f to any reasonalble bet IF i checked.