Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

no, shove it

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

If he has an overpair here and you've failed to get stacks, this is a big mistake.

I probably push, but there is some non zero chance that an overpair folds to it.

I don't understand why you look for him to check/raise you on the flop when you say he is passive. Surely, either a check/raise, or a full sized donk aimed at getting stacks in with 3 streets of standard size betting are better?

I do make these non standard plays myself too sometimes, but wonder whether they really do me any favours.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

bet more on flop. which means bigger turn, which makes river shove easier.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

Yeah, the flop bet was what hurt the rest of the hand. Anyway, I shoved, and he thought about it awhile before folding. I felt like I probably should have just bet around $50, but almost everyone seems to agree with the shove, so I guess it's not bad.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

How much would you bet as a bluff here if you had only a missed flush draw?


I would bet like $40 on the river.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

Shoving here is fine. As stated he's probably going to call with overpairs, guaranteed to call with sets, and isn't calling anything with whiffed draws. May as well go for the gold.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

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How much would you bet as a bluff here if you had only a missed flush draw?

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Honestly, if I had a busted draw on this river, I'd just c/f about 95% of the time. If I did bluff, it would probably be about $40, but I just don't see any value in bluffing a passive limp/re-raiser on a ten high board.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

As much as I really think it's a mistake to play this hand OOP to a raise (blah blah reads, blah blah), I would check and stick in a raise on the flop, then lead the turn.

Let him stick in 5 and raise to 15 or so? Tah puts $40 in the pot on the turn and lets you lead for $30. The last $50 slides in on the river.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

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As much as I really think it's a mistake to play this hand OOP to a raise

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It was $1 more in a raised pot with a nit. I love this hand against the min-raiser. When the guy limp/re-raises and the nit folds, I'm getting better than 4-to-1 on a call, so it seems like a no-brainer to me.

Re: 100NL: How Much Do I Bet?
 

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His read of you and/or your table image would help here. I think you're forgoing value if you open-shove -- that can't have the highest expectation.

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I agree.

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I weakish bet of about $25 might entice him to come over the top with an overpair. Thoughts ?

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I like where this is going...

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How much would you bet as a bluff here if you had only a missed flush draw?
I would bet like $40 on the river.

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...but I like this the best. Valuetown will earn you more than Stacktown (which happens to be a suburb of Foldtown)