Re: Home game hand, tough spot
 

Since you obviously have the bankroll to cover the natural swings of this level cash game it's an easy shove.

Re: Home game hand, tough spot
 

Wazz - Given your description of Villain, he probably has either 5XYZ or 88YZ.

He's more likely to have 5XYZ, by about
13244/2583, or by about 5.12 to 1.

And if he does have 5XYZ, you have a slight edge, about 51.5 to 48.5.

However, if he has 88YZ, he's a huge favorite by 86.6 to 13.4.

So you win 5.12*51.5 + 1*13.4 = ~277,

and he wins 5.12*48.5 + 1*86.6 = ~335.

I think the prudent move is to fold and give up the twelve pounds you have invested rather than risk your whole remaining stack (~208 pounds). javascript:void(0)

(208*277/612 - 208*335/612 = -19.72 pounds)

Tough to fold it, however. Not given your description of Villain, I wouldn't be sure at all what to do.

Buzz

Edit: Yikes! this time everybody else is taking the opposite point of view.

LOL

I had not read the other posts before I responded. Oh well....

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: Home game hand, tough spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
*** You are ignoring this user ***

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I didn't catch that, could you repeat it please?

Re: Home game hand, tough spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wazz - Given your description of Villain, he probably has either 5XYZ or 88YZ.

He's more likely to have 5XYZ, by about
13244/2583, or by about 5.12 to 1.

And if he does have 5XYZ, you have a slight edge, about 51.5 to 48.5.

However, if he has 88YZ, he's a huge favorite by 86.6 to 13.4.

So you win 5.12*51.5 + 1*13.4 = ~277,

and he wins 5.12*48.5 + 1*86.6 = ~335.

I think the prudent move is to fold and give up the twelve pounds you have invested rather than risk your whole remaining stack (~208 pounds). javascript:void(0)

(208*277/612 - 208*335/612 = -19.72 pounds)

Tough to fold it, however. Not given your description of Villain, I wouldn't be sure at all what to do.

Buzz

Edit: Yikes! this time everybody else is taking the opposite point of view.

LOL

I had not read the other posts before I responded. Oh well....

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I agree with your calculations about what he's likely to have, but this is a spot where other things override that. I.e, I can get him to incorrectly sacrifice his equity a lot of the time here by getting him to lay down what he thinks are dead kickers, by 3-betting. I also 3-bet to negate my positional disadvantage and to overrep my hand, i.e. there's a decent chance he lays down 85 if I shove turn. My decisions are not purely influenced by the odds.

Re: Home game hand, tough spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wazz - Given your description of Villain, he probably has either 5XYZ or 88YZ.

He's more likely to have 5XYZ, by about
13244/2583, or by about 5.12 to 1.

And if he does have 5XYZ, you have a slight edge, about 51.5 to 48.5.

However, if he has 88YZ, he's a huge favorite by 86.6 to 13.4.

So you win 5.12*51.5 + 1*13.4 = ~277,

and he wins 5.12*48.5 + 1*86.6 = ~335.

I think the prudent move is to fold and give up the twelve pounds you have invested rather than risk your whole remaining stack (~208 pounds). javascript:void(0)

(208*277/612 - 208*335/612 = -19.72 pounds)

Tough to fold it, however. Not given your description of Villain, I wouldn't be sure at all what to do.

Buzz

Edit: Yikes! this time everybody else is taking the opposite point of view.

LOL

I had not read the other posts before I responded. Oh well....

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I agree with your calculations about what he's likely to have, but this is a spot where other things override that. I.e, I can get him to incorrectly sacrifice his equity a lot of the time here by getting him to lay down what he thinks are dead kickers, by 3-betting. I also 3-bet to negate my positional disadvantage and to overrep my hand, i.e. there's a decent chance he lays down 85 if I shove turn. My decisions are not purely influenced by the odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

i doubt either of those is ever going to happen. more important, though, is that there are a lot more limpable 5xxx hands than 88xx hands (and to a lesser extent, 58xx hands). or to put it another way, the fact that he voluntarily put money into the pot i think skews the likelihood of you being ahead even more into your favor.

Re: Home game hand, tough spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
... i.e. there's a decent chance he lays down 85 if I shove turn...

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're kidding yourself. That's not gonna happen.

Would you have posted this hand if you instead had AA85?? No there'd be no decision. "If he has 88, that's just a cooler."

That's what you'd tell yourself, and that's what he'd tell himself.

Re: Home game hand, tough spot
 

Pete - This is from Wazz's original post:[ QUOTE ]
....I don't think he's bothered reading poker books or anything. My general read on him is that he's quite loose for small bets and raises but when the big money comes out he's rarely bluffing or even semi-bluffing.....

[/ QUOTE ]Given that Villain plays loosely for small bets, and probably is not well read, I doubt he has more of a bias for or against 5XYZ than 88YZ. (If anything, I'd think he'd probably prefer 88YZ).

Considering the cards Wazz can see after the flop, Villain is more likely to have been dealt 5XYZ than 88YZ. But not as much as you might think.

I didn't take out the overlap before, so let me do that now. The possibilities for Villain to have been dealt a hand with at least one eight or at least one five are tabulated below:<ul type="square">8885....1 way (not that it matters)
885X....3*1*41=123 ways
85XY....3*41*40/2=2460 ways
88XY....3*41*40/2=2460 ways
5XYZ....1*41*40*39/6=10660 ways.
888X....1*41=41 ways (not that it matters)
8XYZ....3*41*40*39/6=31980 ways. (not that it matters)

(X, Y, and Z are neither the case five nor an eight).[/list]The first three lines are overlaps between eights and the case five. The number of possible ways for each hand type to have been dealt is shown, along with a simple math set-up for the calculation. The hands shown are mutually exclusive.

What does it all mean?

We can throw out the 8885, maybe the 885X and maybe even the 85XY.

But that still leaves us with a plethora of ways for Villain to possibly have a full house with a pair of eights.

Indeed, if we do it the way shown in this post, Villain is only 4.33 times more likely to have been dealt a hand with the single case five than a hand with a pair of eights.

That's kind of surprising to me. Without the calculation, I would have guessed 5XYZ/88YZ was much greater than just 4.33.

I imagine that's because we more or less intuitively know we are more than ten times as likely to be dealt a hand with a single five than a hand with a pair of eights.

But here we're looking at A,A,T,8,5,5,5.

And that changes things considerably. The "over_ten_to_one_ratio" simply doesn't hold true any more. No where near it!

Indeed, if you want to include possible full houses, assuming Villain would see the flop with almost anything (and isn't that the way Wazz's description reads?) then Villain is only a bit more than twice as likely to have a single five as a full house.

At any rate, in truth Villain holding a full house here is very possible, much more so than I would have thought without the calculation.

Assuming Villain has at least trip fives, the only way Wazz wins here is
• 1. if he catches an ace on the turn or river, or
• 2. if he catches a ten on the turn or river and and Villain does not already have eights full of fives, or
• 3. if Villain doesn't already have a full house and doesn't make one on the turn or river - and then some of the time Villain will also have A5XY and they will tie.

You're going to bet anyway, hoping to scare off Villain?

Does that work? Do you just bet big and Villain weakly concedes the hand? Or do you eventually get your butt kicked good and proper playing like that?
[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]
Buzz

Re: Home game hand, tough spot
 

Results: despite getting 3.5-1, I believed I was up against 85 or 88 and was crushed enough of the time to fold here. My issue is that when I'm ahead, I'm not ahead by very much, and when I'm behind I'm chasing 3 or 5 outs. If the fact I was on my only bullet made any difference on the decision (it doesn't - I'm never scared money), it turned out to be the best one as I came out a £450 winner on the night.

Re: Home game hand, tough spot
 

[ QUOTE ]
My issue is that when I'm ahead, I'm not ahead by very much, and when I'm behind I'm chasing 3 or 5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]Wazz - Yes. Exactly.
[ QUOTE ]
I believed I was up against 85 or 88 and was crushed enough of the time to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]Good move.
[ QUOTE ]
I came out a £450 winner on the night.

[/ QUOTE ]Congratulations on a nice win.

Buzz

Re: Home game hand, tough spot
 

Buzz, just FYI, for the flop calculations, you just left this part of Wazz's read out of the scenarios:

[ QUOTE ]
He does this with any 5, and sometimes a wrap. I guess he could occasionally turn up with KK here, in fact, but very rarely.


[/ QUOTE ]

Since he was the one playing in this live game and he had the read, I think we have to believe him.

The fact that villain would do this with a wrap and possibly KKxx makes the flop a repot IMHO, combined with Wazz only having one bullet and not wanting a difficult and awkward turn decision to me makes the flop an easy repot.

Anyway nice night Wazz.