Re: The Tipping Point + Freakonomics re: crime
 

I hoped this thread would be about Tipping [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: The Tipping Point + Freakonomics re: crime
 

Freakonomics doesn't give all the details but the abortion argument is about the crime rate dropping for the whole country. Some of the better things supporting it:

Crime rates dropping earlier in states that allowed abortions earlier.

The states with the highest abortion rates had the greatest drops in crime rates during this period.

In states with the highest abortion rates the decline in crime was only in crimes committed by youths. Older people committed crimes at the same rates as before the drop in crime.

Re: The Tipping Point + Freakonomics re: crime
 

I've seen that drop in crime attributed to everything from abortions to banning leaded gasoline. The leaded gasoline one was actually pretty interesting, since they added some biochemical data about lead poisoning promoting violence in people.

Re: The Tipping Point + Freakonomics re: crime
 

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Isn't it basically a footnote of economics that people often don't act rationally, but assuming rationality creates the most accurate predictive models?


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In some fields, certainly. In decision theory, certainly not.

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Probably true, but basing laws and policies off irrational behavior assumes that people are idiots and don't know what they want, which is pretty insulting to the sovereign of our nation.

Re: The Tipping Point + Freakonomics re: crime
 

I am reading The Tipping Point right now (well not right now) but I read the relevant chapter last night and had a long discussion with my gf about it. Basically the conclusion we reached was that you cannot isolate social change to one variable.

Was it abortions? Was it cracking down on petty crime? In reality it was most likely both, but I'm not entirely sure that you could 'prove' that. I've seen theoretical models where seemingly inocuous changes have huge results. So at least theoretically it makes sense that you could apply this to social situations. Of course that last part is my own mental derailment while reading 'The Tipping Point' about whether or not human behavior could ever be fully described mathematically.

Re: The Tipping Point + Freakonomics re: crime
 

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but basing laws and policies off irrational behavior assumes that people are idiots and don't know what they want

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I disagree with this strongly. The term rational as applied to economics is extremely limiting and assumes that people simply try to maximise their material gain while [censored] everyone else over in a heartbeat. Assuming that people have qualities like compassion, decency, solidarity, self-sacrifice, etc. is not treating them like idiots.

Also economists basically assume that people have unlimited processing power to apply to any problem. The fact that when I have 50 brands of toothpaste to choose from I pick one at random doesn't mean I'm an idiot. I'd be an idiot if I tried to make the best decision.

Re: The Tipping Point + Freakonomics re: crime
 

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Was it abortions? Was it cracking down on petty crime? In reality it was most likely both, but I'm not entirely sure that you could 'prove' that.

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The thing is, crime fell *everywhere* in the US, not just in cities/states that made huge efforts in cracking down on petty crime. While not every city/state cracked down on crime in the 90's, all states had lived with legalized abortions for the previous 20 years.

Re: The Tipping Point + Freakonomics re: crime
 

The main problem with the freakonomics idea is that the author is suggesting that correlation leads to causation.

His paper has been peer reviewed, and a lot of his theories on abortion rates affecting crime rates have been put into question.

I believe the author has also conducted a lot more research into his idea after the publication of the book and has come to some newer conclusions. But it has been a couple years since I researched what those were.

Either way, both of these books are a very entertaining read, and provide a pretty easy to grasp simple overview of economics and psychology.

Re: The Tipping Point + Freakonomics re: crime
 

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Isn't it basically a footnote of economics that people often don't act rationally, but assuming rationality creates the most accurate predictive models?

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i'm not an expert on economics, so i won't dispute this claim... but when you exit the realm of economics and start looking at human behavior and psychology, assuming rationality is a serious error at times.

where crime falls on that spectrum is debatable.

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Economics can be defined as the study of rational behavior.

Re: The Tipping Point + Freakonomics re: crime
 

Whenever I see this discussed I recommend this bok that was written by my favorite prof.

http://tinyurl.com/2bodmm