Re: PS 50/50: When Only 1 Hand Beats You
 

[ QUOTE ]
AA

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously that hand can beat QQ but AA/KK are discounted because somewhere those hands actually bet at the pot instead of just waiting for the river

Re: PS 50/50: When Only 1 Hand Beats You
 

Why? The flop is fairly innocuous and AA/KK have shown so much strength preflop they are unlikely to get any action when they bet. Checking behind on the flop may induce Kramer to bet out on the turn, at which point AA/KK can shove. The 5h on the turn puts a flush draw out but the odds of Kramer having two hearts are fairly remote, there AA/KK can afford to give yet another free card. Given how Kramer is under-repping his hand, AA/KK have to think he is folding to a turn bet, and checking behind twice just reeks of weakness, so it's very hard for any semi-aggressive player not to at least stab at the river with ATC here.

Anyway, I'm not saying AA/KK are likely here, just possible. JJ isn't the only hand that villain can have.

Re: PS 50/50: When Only 1 Hand Beats You
 

[ QUOTE ]
AA

[/ QUOTE ]

AA never plays this way. EVER.

Re: PS 50/50: When Only 1 Hand Beats You
 

call a bitch

Re: PS 50/50: When Only 1 Hand Beats You
 

Buy in? Reads?

Re: PS 50/50: When Only 1 Hand Beats You
 

Buy-in was $50 as stated in the title. No significant reads.

Re: PS 50/50: When Only 1 Hand Beats You
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why? The flop is fairly innocuous and AA/KK have shown so much strength preflop they are unlikely to get any action when they bet. Checking behind on the flop may induce Kramer to bet out on the turn, at which point AA/KK can shove. The 5h on the turn puts a flush draw out but the odds of Kramer having two hearts are fairly remote, there AA/KK can afford to give yet another free card. Given how Kramer is under-repping his hand, AA/KK have to think he is folding to a turn bet, and checking behind twice just reeks of weakness, so it's very hard for any semi-aggressive player not to at least stab at the river with ATC here.

Anyway, I'm not saying AA/KK are likely here, just possible. JJ isn't the only hand that villain can have.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so MAAAAAAYBE AA/KK play that way going to the river, buy you left out a huge piece of info when including AA/KK in his range... his river play. What I'm saying is, there's no way AA/KK play that way, and even if they do, they don't raise all-in on the river.

Re: PS 50/50: When Only 1 Hand Beats You
 

FWIW, I agree I should be betting this turn just about everytime, but I guess his flop check froze me and I had this feeling I was beat. Once he checked behind on the turn though, I was pretty certain I was ahead and just needed to extract value from AK.

Re: PS 50/50: When Only 1 Hand Beats You
 

I play it the same (although i bet turn sometimes) and SNAPCALL river

hes wayyy FOS

Re: PS 50/50: When Only 1 Hand Beats You
 

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I agree I should be betting this turn just about everytime

[/ QUOTE ]

no!

checking the turn is more than fine

AA, KK, and JJ (which are a huge chunk of his range) all play preflop/flop like he did.