Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

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QQ: he knows the only hand that calls him has him beat
KK: same as QQ...I'm never calling this with queens, so KK is never good if he's called
AA: possible but highly, highly unlikely
TT: why would he overbet when he knows I can fold an overpair?
JJ: same as TT, and I don't think he'd raise the flop anyway
8-x: possible, but he's so nitty that it would have to be 98s, and even that is very questionable

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AA: he would have to have the only other two aces left. plus he didn't reraise preflop?

KK or QQ: he didn't reraise preflop? (that argues in favor of him/her not havin them)... i think s/he doesn't put u on AA or KK b/c u prolly would've reraised his/er reraise on the flop w/ those 2 hands. u said urself it's hard to put him/er on 8x so why not reraise him back on the flop before that hand gets nastier like it did on the turn. (this, on the other hand makes it very possible for him to have them)

JJ or TT: i think u r about right on what u wrote except that it is very possible for villain to reraise here w/ JJ to find out where s/he's at. one can lose a lot of money unnecessarily against an overpair on the next street if it's a blank. if villain is a solid player a reraise here w/ JJ is not out of line.

8x: u should also throw in 87 suited if u r sayin 98 suited is possible. also, for ur hand range calculations u should throw in 88 (altho highly unlikely b/c of the odds of floppin quads and b/c it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to play that strongly knowin u'll fold overpairs and that if u have a full house s/he's gettin ur money on the river anyways).

anyways... u have a complete range of hands for villain. do the math and see if the 1.5:1 u r gettin on ur money is good enough for a call.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

I'll admit to being equally confused given the description.

Admittedly, I love to CR this type of paired flop against a TAG PFR who is on the agressive side. However, if I had an trips or better here I can't see why on earth I'd move AI like that--the only time I'd do it would be on a bluff and the only two bluffing hands I'd likely have that I really would want to move you off, but don't totally mind a call are 99 or 77 (less likely).

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

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I'm going to completely ignore how much you ripped on me in this post and just ask you what YOU think his range is here.

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i apologize if i came on answerin in a condescendin way. didn't mean to and now that i reread it i kinda did. so, i'm sorry about that. as for the range i've already added a couple of hands to ur own range on my previous reply.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

I completely understand your problem and I have to admit this hand really looks kind of sick to me, too. From the way it was played I would say something like 89 or 87 being kind of afraid of the draws on the turn, but the question is: with 12/4 would he call a raise with this hand in the BB? Same goes for some weird straight like 97 or Q9, can't see him playing those PF. JT would be very strange, too, if he puts you on an overpair, he knows that you're ahead with a better two pair.
KQ of diamonds is also possible and playing a big draw that aggressive wouldn't be completely out of line, but why should he be raising (or even calling) your flop bet with this holding?
To sum this up, I guess the only holding that makes any kind of sense with his line here is a SC with an 8 and I think this is a horrible spot for you to be in.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

Just fold. This looks like hes trying to goad you into a call. He knows you will fold AA-QQ to a normal bet here so he pushes and makes it look fishy to confuse you and hopefully get you to call.

I really dont think its a bluff unless villain is thinking on the fourth (?) level.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

crunny, i'm in love w/ ur avatar.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

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crunny, i'm in love w/ ur avatar.

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Thx. She's expensive though.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

I'd call this nearly always.

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

Bump...anyone else?

Re: 100NL: I Am So Confused
 

From my limited knowledge, I see it as three main options:

A) You've said he's done this before with vulnerable overpairs. Perhaps he just made this move on you with KK/QQ and wasn't necessarily paying attention to who he was up against.

B) As you said, he knows you can fold an overpair. He's check-raised you in the past and you've folded each time. He can put you on exactly an overpair here with you calling his flop raise. He figures you can't call this with an overpair and over bets the pot.

C) He's a lot better than you give him credit for. He knows that you know that he knows you can fold an overpair. He has a set and by making such an awkward and confusing push on the turn he figures you'll feel your being pushed off the better hand and make the call.

I'd lean towards making the call, if he shows a set I'd be a lot more cautious in future hands.