Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, his range includes about 25 different flushes. All of them make sense til the river. A lot of them bet the river either hoping to 3-bet or not wanting to get 3-bet.

I don't see him showing up with enough sets/str8s to beat that range, let alone be the significant fav you need to be to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm... Thanks costa, you helped me come to a realization.

In tighter range scenarios two card straights dominate other likelyhoods (16 combinations) so I often percieve them as the most likely mathematically speaking.

In tighter range scenarios theres often only like 1-7 possible flush combinations.

However, because its a blind battle, his PF range is HUGE so the flush combinations actually outweigh a lot of straight combinations. 25-27 flush combinations were much more than I realized once I counted it all out..

When comparing likelyhoods in blind battles and a 3-flush is out... I have to give a lot more credit to a flush possibility if I cant narrow down there range from action on a previous street (IE just calling a continuation bet).

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

I'm the villain here, right? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am capable of capping pair + diamond + straight draw in some situations (maybe not this).

[/ QUOTE ]

why not here?

i guess the answer to that question is the reason u shouldnt raise river

*

Another question that isnt about this hand: When u cap toppair or a draw on turn against a non-retard player. Have the other guy ever folded before showdown? Have u ever been ahead when u capped?

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

My thought process is the flop and turn make a bunch of good hands however I think your flush is ahead of most. I think the villon will 3 bet turn with any 2 pair any top pair with ace of diamonds any straight maybe even top pair openended with a flush draw like 9 10 with 10 of diamonds or even an overpair. In blind battles people go a little crazy. Also, he might put you on top pair with ace of diamond redraw. Hence, the river donk. I am raise calling this river, if he has 2 of the remaining 8 diamonds in the deck in his hand, nice hand sir... JMO My guess is he ends up with Ad j and donked his two pair.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am raise calling this river, if he has 2 of the remaining 8 diamonds in the deck in his hand, nice hand sir... JMO My guess is he ends up with Ad j and donked his two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]


I am putting Ad J in his range too of course. But I'm curious about the 'raise-calling this river' part.
What on earth is a sane player going to be 3-betting the river with? Is this guy really so lag that he 3-bets the river without the flush?

In other words: I'm not confident a river-raise is such a hot idea here to begin with...but if you're going to do it isn't it better if you are okay with a raise-fold line?

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

I don't think folding a flush in a blind battle in crazy 6 handed games is ever +EV in the long run. I see more crazy river raises in blind battles with middle pair or bottom two or busted draws that I will take the raise call line here every time unless I have a real strong read on an opponent to only call.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

Of course you see crazy river raises in blind battles.
But this was a capped turn on a 3-flush board against a fellow 2+2'er.
If you have a read on this particular 2+2'er that he is capable of that crazy a 3-bet bluff then go ahead and call him down.

Obviously if he has the nuts, which is possible here, then you are just happily spewing 2 extra bets his way with the worst hand every single time.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

I would call the river. If I was SB, I would almost always check the river to c/c or cr. I think it's usually a mistake for SB to bet here.
Do you usually play the flop like this, i.e call and pop the turn? Would you have popped the turn UI?

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

[ QUOTE ]
call the river

[/ QUOTE ]


right, because if you get 3bet, you are buring 1BB everytime you call that river 3bet.

Re: 10/20 - 25s - Baby flush, blind battle. River raise?
 

if its me, your in serious trouble...