Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

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FWIW, drop/tip are included in pot size in OP. So anyway, marginal decision I guess?



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IMO, you're much closer to 4 outs than you are to five outs. I say it's a somewhat close fold. The problem with these games is that you can't just look at a raggety board and say "no way someone has Q6 or 63", etc., and you have to give UNKNOWNS credit for having decent hands when they pump it up. If you have any read that they are above average aggression-wise, then you call if you know it won't be 3 bet behind you. Otherwise, just step off the variance train, and fold. This is either slightly +ev or majorly -EV, and you don't know which until you have a read on your opponents.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

We are discussing our backdoor opportunites but try also to look at some real scary reverse implied odds. If we hit the A on the turn we may be counterfeited or behind. So what do we do when we raise our A and get reraised?? The pot may be so big that we will almost have to call. Furthermore if we do hit a clean out on the turn it may well be outdrawn in a multiway pot on the river again.

Conclusion:
1. If we hit the turn the backdoordraws are gone and we may be suffering from reverse implied odds and the chance to get outdrawn on last street. That is - we have a marginal hand.

2. If we hit our flushdraw it may be expensive anyway making it just maybe a little +ev IF we catch a draw - remember somebody with a set has a 1:3.6 to a boat.

3. We may catch nothing and maybe call anyway.

Furthermore we may get reraised on the flop so this is a fold.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

If the BB wasn't counting out chips for a call, I'd say this was a clear fold. Getting 3 bet (and then maybe capped) would be a disaster.

As is, I think you still have to drop this. My solution to this problem is to fold the hand and walk away from the table, thus avoiding monkey tilt if my hand happens to run down the nuts.

Re: live 6/12, AKs CO
 

Wow what a tough spot this is..