Re: Are we bluffing pf?
 

Very nice post Dire, this was the kind of thing I was looking for. I especially like the analysis of pfr with respect to steal %.

Re: Are we bluffing pf?
 

good point! does 3% really make that much of a difference? Is there like a table or program of some sort that will show what range a player with X% will open?

Re: Are we bluffing pf?
 

yeah i think you gotta check your own stats in situations like this. If you run 17/14 at the table, hes not gonna call with worse.. So id like to call. But sometimes they call with worse hands alot.. I always pay attention when a 3bet pot is played. And make notes if i see that guy calling a 3bet with a weird hand.

And we have position here right? If not i would 3bet almost always.

Re: Are we bluffing pf?
 

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if you only 3bet with the QQ+ here, he will quickly figure that out and exploit you very easily.


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I see this proclaimed often. But, I'm dubious.

How often do you get such a read on someone. It takes thousands of hands and even then you'll never be sure. Just because you call JJ doesn't mean you're not 3betting suited connectors etc.

So how many people in your database do you have a read that he can 3bet light but will only raise an UTG raisor with QQ+?

I'll often call against UTG preflop raisers w/AQ and JJ. We don't have to raise just because we some small preflop equity. Getting bluffed by worse hands when flops that are bad for our hand isn't the end of the world. We can still sometimes make a play at the pot postflop.

By calling in position, we are in a smaller pot where we can wield our positional advantage better. And we have a hand that figures to be ahead of their range. This should be a profitable situation for us. Unless we much worse than our opponent postflop!

Re: Are we bluffing pf?
 

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also, against a 20/17, with hands like JJ, you are ahead of his opening range UTG and therefore its not a bluff at all, its a value raise

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I agree that we are usually ahead, but my point is that a solid TAG is almost never going to just call our 3-bet out of position with a weaker hand. If a TAG opens UTG, we three bet in position, most good TAG's are never going to flat call our 3-bet with a worse hand (assuming 100 BB stacks and little history).

When we do get called it's almost always by a better hand that is trapping us. So my question still stands, if our opponent isn't going to call us with worse, aren't we bluffing?

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Won't he sometimes flat call AK here, a hand you're ahead of?

Re: Are we bluffing pf?
 

I know of no solid TAG's who'll flat call a 3-bet OOP with AK, it's just a bad situation for them, they'll usually fold or more likely 4bet/shove

Re: Are we bluffing pf?
 

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I know of no solid TAG's who'll flat call a 3-bet OOP with AK, it's just a bad situation for them, they'll usually fold or more likely 4bet/shove

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what. i will

Re: Are we bluffing pf?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you only 3bet with the QQ+ here, he will quickly figure that out and exploit you very easily.


[/ QUOTE ]

I see this proclaimed often. But, I'm dubious.

How often do you get such a read on someone. It takes thousands of hands and even then you'll never be sure. Just because you call JJ doesn't mean you're not 3betting suited connectors etc.

So how many people in your database do you have a read that he can 3bet light but will only raise an UTG raisor with QQ+?

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I am dubious as well. Unless you're constantly playing against the same players or playing HU, making these types of decisions to disguise your monsters does not seem to offer much value. I can see how 3-betting more may make you look like a maniac at that table, but 1) will the fish really take much note of that? and 2) will you be aware of which tables you have established an especially aggressive image if you are playing many tables at once?

Re: Are we bluffing pf?
 

you shouldnt do anything 100% of the time

Re: Are we bluffing pf?
 

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I know of no solid TAG's who'll flat call a 3-bet OOP with AK, it's just a bad situation for them, they'll usually fold or more likely 4bet/shove

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what. i will

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Ok I'll rephrase, solid TAG's at 200 NL rarely just call a 3-bet OOP with AK. Most reg's (including myself [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ) feel uncomfortable playing AK OOP in a 3-bet pot.

This line isn't really what I was getting at. I guess