Re: A 99 hand
 

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it's going to be 2 bets anyway so why not try a free showdown + fold equity, i would't want any overcards drawing here a KQ may fold and also any unpaired Kx,Ax maybe he called with TT and folds (although very unlikely) if villain 3 bets he likely has AJ or smth

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I took yet another read over the Free Showdown Play section in Stox's book, and this spot does seem to fulfill several of his conditions for making it. Villain may well be bluffing with 6 outs, and if we're behind, we don't have many outs and can fold to a 3-bet. I'd typically call, but there could be a case for raising.

EDIT: We also make an extra bet the times he does have overcards, calls anyway, and misses on the river.

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It really depends on what hands villian is donking with. Against an unknown I'm thinking it's much more likely this is a made marginal hand than something like KQ. But if a large part of villians range is two overs (and I think two is important here - if villian is only betting a three out hand like A2 it's probably higher EV to just let him bluff) then I like the free showdown raise.

Re: A 99 hand
 

Overall I agree. OP said the table was tightish, so a J is fairly likely. I'd need to have a read that this was the kinda guy who likes to bluff paired boards to raise the turn.

Re: A 99 hand
 

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EDIT: We also make an extra bet the times he does have overcards, calls anyway, and misses on the river.

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Or spew an extra bet when villain has a scared J.

Re: A 99 hand
 

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I took yet another read over the Free Showdown Play section in Stox's book, and this spot does seem to fulfill several of his conditions for making it. Villain may well be bluffing with 6 outs, and if we're behind, we don't have many outs and can fold to a 3-bet. I'd typically call, but there could be a case for raising.

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I'm not familiar with "Stox's book", but just from what your saying, it probably sucks. A villain's numbers would have to be pretty coincidental for a raise on this turn to be correct. Specifically, he would need to have high aggression, a tendency to donk a lot, and high showdown numbers. Against the vast majority of villains, raising this turn is incredible stupid.

Re: A 99 hand
 

I check, but plz r/f the turn

Re: A 99 hand
 

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Overall I agree. OP said the table was tightish, so a J is fairly likely. I'd need to have a read that this was the kinda guy who likes to bluff paired boards to raise the turn.

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But you see, **even** if villain was the type who likes to bluff paired boards, raising would probably not be correct. I won't talk a lot about WA/WB situations because there's a search function on this site, but suffice it to say that:
- this is a textbook WA/WB

- if he's bluffing, why do you want him to stop?

- if he's not bluffing, why do you want to give him more money (i.e. he checks the river, just like he did in this hand - now you're the one who can decide to value bet or take a free showdown)? **or** give him the same amount of money and not see a showdown (i.e. he 3's it).

Re: A 99 hand
 

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I check, but plz r/f the turn

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lol.

Clearly, a pooh-bah needs to write an essay on WA/WB.

Re: A 99 hand
 

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it's going to be 2 bets anyway so why not try a free showdown + fold equity, i would't want any overcards drawing here a KQ may fold and also any unpaired Kx,Ax maybe he called with TT and folds (although very unlikely) if villain 3 bets he likely has AJ or smth

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"It's going to be 2 bets anyway" isn't an argument. You have to tell me why the raise/fold line is BETTER than the call/call line.

If it's going to be two bets anyway, why would you want Ax/Kx to fold by raising the turn? Because then it's not two bets anymore and you miss out value from worse hands.

This sounds like you're trying to make a play for the sake of making a play.

Re: A 99 hand
 

The decision of whether or not to bet the river seems like a pretty straightforward exercise in combinatorics.

Re: A 99 hand
 

possible holdings of BB could be: AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ, J8s+

I think this are reasonable holdings for BB...

AJ: could 3-bet or donk the river, in both cases it's a fold
KJ,QJ: may be scared fearing AJ and simply call/check
JT-J8s: unlikely that this hands will fold but still it's worth a shot in this big pot
AQ,KQ: if you simply call here you give these hands a free shot at this big pot, the turn raise would protect the pot from these hands

there is only 1 scenario there you don't have the best of it not R/F this turn, if BB holds AJ, of course everything might change if there is a read on the opponent...