Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Clearly you can't fold getting 23:1. You have the best hand way more than 4.2% of the time here. That being said I don't raise simply because every additional bet at this point has negative equity. Nobody who called the initial 2 cold is folding.

On the turn, close to half the cards in the deck should make your decision easy - fold. But if a safe card hits, there's a reasonable chance you're still ahead, so I check and let the button hang herself. I'm not really afraid of her or the BB. UTG, while she may *always* bet (or raise) with the best, will deviate if she flopped the mortal nuts (if she holds Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]), and may even wait to raise until the river if enough stay in.

I'd be prepared to call one bet on both the turn and river if no flush card falls, and if nobody folds the turn for one bet and the river is a heart, if the button bets when checked to and everybody else folds, I might even be prepared to make a crying call getting about 17:1.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Grunch. On the turn, I lead at any non heart, non J789TJ card. I'm dreaming of a black 3, but probably won't get it.

I may be check/folding a lot of cards on the turn depending on the action.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Nice game

I certainly just call here, if we have the best hand we probably don't have a big edge here, even against 3 people.

My instinct is to lead a blank turn in hopes of being raised by the button(since I assume we're solidly ahead of her range if the turn blanks)

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Joe,

I'm in the "call the raise, see what the turn brings" camp. As everyone else has said, I'm REALLY not happy with this flop, but there is too much money in the pot to fold here for 1 more bet.

As I re-read the post, I'm wondering what the button has. If I were the button, I'm probably 3-betting AKs, AA-TT or 99. I'm wondering if she's flopped a set (JJ or 99), or has the big flush draw. I think in the end we are still ahead here, and it is much more likely she has the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]or the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. TT with the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] would also be a big possibility. I also think the BB and UTG have absolutely fallen in love with their singular [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s and are praying for a heart on the turn.

The other thing here that I like is that I'm closing the action with the call. No-one behind me to re-raise?, we're calling 1 to the turn here easy.

Joe

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

That was easy boys, nice work, I called.

Turn: (12.2BBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

BB checks, UTG checks,

Your action.... (add your thoughts to what you want to see happen and what your reaction is going to be given any result)

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
That was easy boys, nice work, I called.

Turn: (12.2BBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

BB checks, UTG checks,

Your action....

[/ QUOTE ]

bet

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

Well this just keeps getting worse. This is an ugly spot.

If you bet, and button raises, this is good in that it will punish BB and UTG to draw. No T or big heart (or maybe any heart) is folding here. Not ideal, but better than a flop raise.

If you bet, and button raises, this is bad because this means you're completely smoked or button is aggro with the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or the like in her hand. Then you have to dodge any Q, T, 7, or heart the fishcakes are drawing to. So you're drawing to the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] when you might already be dead to a straight or flush, or you're still ahead and she's aggro on a draw.

At least cold-callers will make your river fold elementary when the draws hit.

If you bet, button raises, and gets two cold callers, you'll be getting ~19:1. I'd have to know the button to make my decision here.

Checking is horrible, since it's entirely possible button will free card here.

I think you have to bet, hope the button calls, and hope the river bricks. If the button raises, then I think you have to call - especially if you have coldcallers in front.

If either of the fishcakes c/r, then I fold.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (12.2BBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

BB checks, UTG checks,

Your action....

[/ QUOTE ]

bet, hoping button will raise with her KQ.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (12.2BBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

BB checks, UTG checks,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sticking with bet/fold, but again that's on the assumption that button won't raise again with a hand that can't beat aces--your preflop cap said that you meant business, and even if she put you on AK then you're now holding TPTK & she should slow down with anything less. If either of the other players check/raises that should be a turbomuck given their descriptions.

If you do believe that button is capable of making the turn raise with a weaker hand and/or draw, then of course it's bet/call (assuming neither of the other players springs to life with a 3bet).

The key point is that we simply cannot check ever because of the probability that button will check through with outs against us.

Re: Let\'s take this street by street...
 

I was just thinking that an offsuit king would be the most interesting card on the turn. Not exactly the safest card, but safe enough. I think you gotta bet here and call a raise from the button then re-evaluate on the river. Obviously fold to a threebet or raise from one of the other players.