Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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in the process of pounding, up to -131 now.

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You are just wasting your time...

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Propositions (Kobayashi and Chestnut must eat)
Will Takeru Kobayashi win? No -125



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The OP even posted as such... any line that includes a "Kobayashi must eat / must start" condition has zero value...

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

overbet my roll, yes...seems to be a habit of mine lately.

It also says in the article that OP posted that Koba is still going to try and show up, so I don't see how this is zero value.

edit nm you're right:

"But he said he still wanted to go to the competition in New York."

I confused this to be a present tense observation but this is a description of his position of how he felt after his mother died...

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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[ QUOTE ]
in the process of pounding, up to -131 now.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are just wasting your time...

[ QUOTE ]
Propositions (Kobayashi and Chestnut must eat)
Will Takeru Kobayashi win? No -125



[/ QUOTE ]

The OP even posted as such... any line that includes a "Kobayashi must eat / must start" condition has zero value...

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There is a non-zero chance that Kobayashi will compete. Even if the bet is cancelled 99% of the time, there is some value.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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"But he said he still wanted to go to the competition in New York."

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Hopefully just to watch and shake the winner's hand. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

I would argue that based on the information given there is a zero percent chance he competes and a -EV opportunity cost for the poster's time, but we're just arguing minor semantics [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Point i was trying to make - if you didn't notice, Kabosh, Kobayashi has to eat for that bet to play. Maybe you're not wasting your time per Homer, but this isn't the amazing value that you think it is given the "must eat" clause... I'd argue there's such little chance of Kobayashi competing based on this information that it is effectively 0% chance...

-P

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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Wonder if the under 57 at Bodog now has more value. Chestnut is going to be able to coast to victory with minimal effort and won't be pressured in the closing seconds. I'd have to think his expected number of hot dogs eaten will be much lower now.

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Two points I'd like to make 1) performify is right 2) I did jump on the under 57.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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Wonder if the under 57 at Bodog now has more value.

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I suppose it technically does, but since it contains the "Kobayashi and Chestnut must both start" clause, I think the EV is extremely low.

I'm not even sure it's better than just earning two weeks of interest.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would argue that based on the information given there is a zero percent chance he competes and a -EV opportunity cost for the poster's time, but we're just arguing minor semantics [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Point i was trying to make - if you didn't notice, Kabosh, Kobayashi has to eat for that bet to play. Maybe you're not wasting your time per Homer, but this isn't the amazing value that you think it is given the "must eat" clause... I'd argue there's such little chance of Kobayashi competing based on this information that it is effectively 0% chance...

-P

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It's not amazing value, just a little value. It's pretty much zero risk and if you have a bunch of money in Pinnacle that you don't need for the next couple weeks, why not?

If your roll is small don't hit it, I agree.

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Wonder if the under 57 at Bodog now has more value.

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I suppose it technically does, but since it contains the "Kobayashi and Chestnut must both start" clause, I think the EV is extremely low.

I'm not even sure it's better than just earning two weeks of interest.

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People keep saying this, but there's no way of pulling that money out of Bodog (or any other site) in less than a month anyway. So, if you have an excess balance that would just be rotting in your account anyway, why the hell not bet it?

Re: Kobayashi seriously injures jaw
 

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wonder if the under 57 at Bodog now has more value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose it technically does, but since it contains the "Kobayashi and Chestnut must both start" clause, I think the EV is extremely low.

I'm not even sure it's better than just earning two weeks of interest.

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People keep saying this, but there's no way of pulling that money out of Bodog (or any other site) in less than a month anyway. So, if you have an excess balance that would just be rotting in your account anyway, why the hell not bet it?

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I do think the "Chestnut to win" bet is clearly better. If Kobayashi decides to play hurt [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] then Chestnut is a HUGE favorite, and certainly more likely to hit than the u57.

If you are not busto like me, then I agree you may as well go for it.