Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

Since Moneymaker won there has been at least one bracelet winner at the FT (Arieh and Harrington 2004, Matusow 2005 and Cunningham 2006). If you figure on an expectation of 1.0 bracelet winners at this year's ME and give them a better than average chance to win, it's hard to see how the chance a complete unknown winning will be >90%.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

(1- #of ppl on hendon mob database(in ME) / # total entrants) * 100

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

It's a coinflip.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

Ya...he said something along the lines of "is this guy serious?" and looked around at the rest of the table...it was pretty funny. I don't think he's a bad guy, and I'm not trying to hijack the thread, just illustrating that the term "unknown" is very subjective when a poker fan and media person like myself doesn't know who a supposed "somebody" is.

This is him by the way...
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/204/5...6555f23f29.jpg

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ya...he said something along the lines of "is this guy serious?" and looked around at the rest of the table...it was pretty funny. I don't think he's a bad guy, and I'm not trying to hijack the thread, just illustrating that the term "unknown" is very subjective when a poker fan and media person like myself doesn't know who a supposed "somebody" is.

This is him by the way...
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/204/5...6555f23f29.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

I did not know the let the geico caveman play poker!!!!

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I did not know the let the geico caveman play poker!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny you should say that....rumor has it that last year, the ESPN cameramen were referring to finalist Leif Force as "mango salsa"

If you don't see why that's funny...watch this

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

Every year there are 100+ more name "pros" than last year. So the chance of a pro or name winning go up every year. Still if they get 6000+ some Joe will win like 90%+.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

70%. More likely than not, in other words.

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

[ QUOTE ]
50/50 ldo

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, either you do or you dont. whats the problem?

Re: What is the chance that a complete unknown wins the main event?
 

90%+

What about all the internet guys who never/rarely play live but play a ton online? They aren't going to have a Hendon Mob entry.