Re: A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...
 

[ QUOTE ]
we need to ask, will a bet on the flop take this down >25% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd say it probably wouldn't take it down 2.5% of the time. Check auto-fold and wait for the next bus.

Re: A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...
 

[ QUOTE ]
hmm sry im obv not being clear enough.

we are betting this flop with the belief that the other players will ALL fold > ~22%

turn and river wont matter because chances are very high that we arent putting any more money in regardless of what falls (outside of a 6 or ss)

[/ QUOTE ]

this is like asking to bet ATC here which I wouldn't do either.

Re: A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...
 

ATC?

also marchron et al, i could well be wrong here. against 2 im probably right tho

Re: A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...
 

I would think a flop bet is two pronged. I don't really like c-bets into 4 opponents that often, but if they are checking through the flop, 1 bet here might allow you to see the river for free. 2 streets for 1 sb bet. I do agree that doesn't allows work either, but I would try it in this hand.

Re: A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...
 

[ QUOTE ]
we are betting this flop with the belief that the other players will ALL fold > ~22%

[/ QUOTE ]
agree with it being the last monies we put in if called but ultimately I just dont think we taking it down enough of stipulated time.

take free card and turn a set obv

Re: A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...
 

they dont have random hands but its still a flop check.

Re: A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...
 

[ QUOTE ]
btw fret, i don't mind PF if we're on a loose table, in fact unless I'm pretty confident i'd get it HU if raised I've got no problems with a limp.

As played i don't think I'd even bother betting here at all, just take the free card, & fold turn UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the G.I.B. said Fred(t). All of it.

Re: A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would think a flop bet is two pronged. I don't really like c-bets into 4 opponents that often, but if they are checking through the flop, 1 bet here might allow you to see the river for free. 2 streets for 1 sb bet. I do agree that doesn't allows work either, but I would try it in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This wouldn't be a cbet since we didn't pfr if that means anything to you Bilgey.

Re: A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK you bettors, what happens when we get called?

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG calls I'm betting any turn card.

If TAG calls, or if more than one opponent calls I'm done unless I get lucky on the turn/river.

If LAG calls it's probably a check on any turn, though a case could be made for bet/folding if it isn't a spade.

While it may be correct to check the flop their hands are worse than random. Most of the time if either of the blinds want this pot they would have bet (if I'm wrong about this then it's definitely a check).

Re: A preflop screwup and a nasty flop...
 

This is a small pot. I'm checking, taking a free card, then folding when I miss my set on the turn.