Re: Roland Garros: Canas- Monaco
 

I don't see much I like for tomorrow, but I think their might be some value in Baghdatis +145. Igor Andreev took four sets to dispose of Andy Roddick. Baghdatis commands similair shots as Roddick, but he is a much more natural clay court mover. I think Baghdatis has an excellent chance to win if he controls the points, but maintains his mental focus against the superb counter-puncher in Andreev. If he has a breakdown, physically or mentally he is done. I would put the true line at about Baghdatis +125.

Re: Roland Garros: Canas- Monaco
 

Thanks for the pick. I ended up passing, but after reading more about them and their record (especially vs. each other) I considered betting Canas to win in straight sets at +266, and to win -5 games at +105. I don't really follow tennis, but you seem to know what you're talking about...

Re: Roland Garros: Canas- Monaco
 

i'm no huge expert, but bjorkman at +685 against moya seems like great value.... i'm a huge moya fan and i guess he's playing very well, but he isn't exactly mr consistency. he can cough up some pretty bad performances. and bjorkman won his last two sets at 1 and 0 (was there a story behind this??). and yes, bjorkman's ride will come to a crashing halt but could be against rafa in semi's, not in QF vs. moya.

also, i though maria S was so ripe for the picking today. and hasn't been playing that much, or that well recently...

Tue 6/5 A. Chakvetadze vs M. Sharapova
02:00 AM 407 A. Chakvetadze +179
408 M. Sharapova -194

i know nothing about ms. chakvetadze, except that's she's probably from russia.... do enough fans bet on tennis that maria could be overbet? or do the books just pretty much make up these lines as a courtesy..

BTW, my picks on here have been especially bad... i could be a reverse indicator. but -650 on moya is nuts.

Re: Roland Garros: Canas- Monaco
 

I lost with Baghdatis today, but I'm not really convinced it was a bad pick. Baghdatis dominated the first set 6-2. If he would have maintained his focus and continued to play sharp tennis he surely would have won that match. However he imploded in the second set with 21 unforced errors. Igor Andreev took advantage of a Baghdatis who never returned to form, winning 2-6 6-1 6-3 6-4.

For today i thnk there are several decent plays

Jelena Jankovic 2-0 -105
Jankovic has changed as a player since the Australian, she had a reputation for mental weakness, crumbling in key matches. However, she beat Venus here, and showed just the opposite. Her play elevated for the big points, and she won a brutal three set battle. I think the new Jankovic is going to make a statement in this match. Vaidasova is a hot young prospect, but she does not have the consistency to challenge Jankovic in the long points required on clay. True line -135

Roger Federer 3-0 -220
Normally I hate betting on Federer as the general public likes to bet his lines into oblivion. But in this match I'm really betting agaisnt Tommy Robredo. Robredo has breezed into the quarters with a ridiculously easy draw. Although he is in the top ten in the world, he is not tough on clay. He has no wins against a top thirty player on clay this year. Federer is not a player to lose an errant set either. His focus seems to intensify when a set is on the line, he did not lose a set in Australia, he has not lost a set here, I'm pretty sure he will not lose a set against a vastly overrated robredo. True line -300.

Also, I'm not betting the Sharapova match because of bodog lines +165/-240, but to respond to smbruin, I Would not bet against Maria at +179. She can look streaky at times, but she doesn't really lose matches to inferior players. She has an uncanny knack of digging deep, and winning matches on pure intensity. She is probably the truest warrior on the woman's side. I'd set this line at about -200. Also IMO most of the value in women's tennis is in favorites.

Re: Roland Garros: Canas- Monaco
 

If true line for Federer 3-0 is -300 I suggest you hammer the [censored] out of the -170 you can get at the 2 books I looked.

Re: Roland Garros: Canas- Monaco
 

Well i am just new here, read the forum a few times before and thought to give it a go now.

I got Federer & Canas on a combo.

Canas is clrearly underrated in my opinion and a real clay specialist.

To the Bagdadis blow i have to say that Andreev is a bit underrated or may Bagdadis overrated, but next round he should go out 3-1 against Djokovic.

p.s. watch the numbers vor moya vs nadal ! and than watch the record again ...

Re: Roland Garros: Canas- Monaco
 

Most of my money is currently locked up on Bodog, I'm really more of a poker player than a sports bettor. I talked to a contact overseas though, and he agreed to place tennis bets for me for the rest of this tournament, this should give me access to more favorable lines for the rest of the tournament.
Due to this. I'm adding
canas -110
Djokovic -155
The analysis from charly is basically correct.

Re: Roland Garros: Canas- Monaco
 

I went 1-2 today losing with federer, and canas, not running to good...

I misjudged Tommy Robredo slightly, he played well enough to take advantage of Federer's uncharactersticly terrible second set. the announcers basically spent the rest of the match talking about the 2nd set. I'm fairly certain I was on the right side of that wager.

However the canas match was a poor pick. I shouldn't have probably made a pick on that because I hadn't seen enough of Davydenko. I thought canas superior consistency would be too much for Davydenko to handle, but Davydenko won with amazing offensive tennis, despite committing an unseemingly seventy unforced errors.

Jankovic won a tough fought battle her experience, and consistency were too much for the young Vaidasova who committed 42 unforced errors.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

Re: Roland Garros: Canas- Monaco
 

Maria Sharapova -120
Sharapova plays a pretty similair style to Ivanovic. Ivanovic moves a little better on clay, but Maria's shots are a little bigger. In the technical regard I would set up Maria as a a slight favorite. However, I think you can't underestimate the mental aspect of this matchup. Ivanovic does not have Maria's composure or experience in big matches. Maria seems to love the spotlight, and her intensity is never in doubt. I like Maria's chances in what looks like it will be a hard thought battle.

Re: Roland Garros: Canas- Monaco
 

Djokovic won yesterday to bring me to 3-3 in the tournament...
Not go great considering i've bet several favorites.
I'm adding
Jelena Jankovic 2-1 +600
I think Jankovic is the most underrated player in this semifinal. I think the bookmakers are looking at Henin's dismantling of Serena to set this line. To compare Jankovic to Serena is not accurate however. Jankovic should be able to use her topspin groundstrokes to control the points from the baseline with smaller risk of error than Serena's flatter ball. I also think Jankovic is a superior clay court mover than Serena. Make no mistake, Henin is still the premeir clay court player of a generation, but I think Jankovic will give her a battle and I like Jankovic for the fight at +600.